1. A SYSTEMS APPROACH TO MODELLING WATER-ENERGY-FOOD NEXUS
Slobodan P. Simonović
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
The University of Western Ontario
London, Ontario, Canada

2. 2| WEF Modelling WEF nexus Systems approach
Conclusions
WEF nexus
New challenges
High level of integration
High level of complexity
Common concerns
Systems approach
Modelling of the whole system
System dynamics simulation (and optimization)
Modelling of various scales
Global
Regional ….
ANEMI model example
Exeter, 2012
Slobodan P. Simonović

3. 3| WEF Modelling Challenges of the new/old context Integration
Outline
Challenges of the new/old context
Integration
Systems approach
Example
ANEMI model
Lessons learned
Conclusions
Exeter, 2012
Slobodan P. Simonović

4. 4|
WEF Context
Definitions
Nexus?
A center point of something!
A center of various connections!
Water, energy and food – pillars of global security, prosperity and equity
Perspectives
Water perspective – food and energy systems are users of resources
Food perspective – water and energy are inputs
Energy perspective – water is the input and food is the output
Vast individual areas
Policy and regulations often create sub-optimal solutions
Exeter, 2012
Slobodan P. Simonović

5. 5| WEF Context Challenges Water-Energy-Food common concerns
Access to services
Environmental impacts
Price volatility
Growing population
Poverty
Health
Climate change
Mitigation – energy
Adaptation – land and water
Management
Enormous opportunities for higher efficiency
Study of the whole complex system
Understanding interactions – it is all about feedbacks
Scale
1.4 billion people without access to electricity
3 billion with out access to modern fuels or technologies for cooking and heating
900 million people without access to safe drinking water
2.6 billion do not have sanitation
900 million people are chronically hungry
2 billion people lack food security
Exeter, 2012
Slobodan P. Simonović

6. 6| WEF Context All three areas have many billions of people without
Interactions
All three areas have many billions of people without
access (quantity or quality or both)
All have rapidly growing global demand
All have resource constraints
All are ‘‘global goods’’ and involve international trade
and have global implications
All have different regional availability and variations in
supply and demand
All have strong interdependencies with climate change
and the environment
All have deep security issues as they are fundamental to
the functioning of society
All operate in heavily regulated markets
All require the explicit identification and treatment of risks
Bazilian, et al, Energy Policy, (2011)
Exeter, 2012
Slobodan P. Simonović

7. 7| WEF Modelling Consideration of all three areas together
Systems approach
Consideration of all three areas together
Systems view
Complexity
Whole system approach
Difficult to translate into government policy making processes
System structure
Feedbacks
System behavior
Exeter, 2012
Slobodan P. Simonović

8. 8| WEF Modelling Example ANEMI
NSERC Discovery Grant (2005 – 2007) ANEMI ver 1
NSERC Strategic Grant (2007 – 2011) ANEMI ver 2
Project objectives
To develop system dynamics-based model of society-biosphere-climate system
To provide support for communication between the science and policy communities.
To examine the effects of climate change on socio-economic and environmental sustainability through the model outputs.
Interdisciplinary team
Systems modelling – engineering
Climate policy – geography and political science
Economics – economics
Partners
Environment Canada
Natural Resources Canada
Department of Finance
Department of Fisheries and Oceans
Department of Agriculture
ANEMI - Greek term for the four winds, heralds of the four seasons
Exeter, 2012
Slobodan P. Simonović

9. 9| WEF Modelling Example ANEMI
Selection of the methodological approach
First workshop
ANEMI model development
Structure
Sectors
Preliminary results
Identification of key issues
Communication with the project collaborators
Selection of simulation scenarios
Second workshop
ANEMI model expansion
Economy-energy integration
Model regionalization
Model use
Scenario analyses
Model limitations
Third workshop
Model transfer
Future work
Exeter, 2012
Slobodan P. Simonović

10. 10| WEF Modelling Carbon cycle Climate Water Use Water Quality
Example ANEMI
Carbon
Climate +
Land Use
Population
Energy-Economy
Surface Flow -
Water Quality
Water Demand −
Food Production
Clearing and Burning
Land Use Emissions
Temperature
Atmospheric CO2
Water Stress
Surface Water Availability
Water Consumption
Consumption and Labour
GDP per capita
Wastewater
Treatment
Reuse
Treatment and Reuse
Water use Intensity
Industrial emission
Water use efficiency
Pollution Index
Per capita food
Arable Land
Agricultural allocation
Emission Index
Fertility
Carbon cycle
Climate
Water Use
Water Quality
Surface Flow
Population
Land Use
Food Production
Energy-Economy
System dynamics simulation
9 sectors
2300 state variables
600 equations
Thousands (close to 8000) of feedback loops
Exeter, 2012
Slobodan P. Simonović

11. 11| WEF Modelling Example ANEMI – Stock and flow diagrams Exeter, 2012
Slobodan P. Simonović

12. 12| WEF Modelling Available water resources Example ANEMI - Equations
Two stocks (oceans and land surface)
Flows (evaporation, evapotranspiration, advection, precipitation,
snow and ice melt, percolation, ocean runoff)
Exeter, 2012
Slobodan P. Simonović

13. 13| WEF Modelling Example ANEMI – Simulation & optimization
Optimization and simulation are carried out side by side in the energy-economy sector. The price of fuel and the capital stocks for energy production are simulated based on the optimal value of GDP, energy production and energy use across different sectors. In the ANEMI model (ANEMI version 2 and ANEMI_CDN), the optimal value of these components are driven by the optimization scheme in relation to the population and climate sectors as well as the energy sector. The optimization scheme of this ANEMI model also requires two more variables from sectors outside of the energy-economy complex: labour and climate damage function. The population sector supplies labour force to the model, which is comprised of the total population between the ages of 15 and 64. The damage function here stands for the economic damage due to sea-level rise, flood, drought and so on; it is the consequence of global temperature change. The global temperature is mostly influenced by radiative forcing: it is simulated within the climate sector of the ANEMI model.
Exeter, 2012
Slobodan P. Simonović

14. 14| WEF Modelling Global model
Example ANEMI – global and regional
Global model
Regional model – Canada and rest-of-the-world (ROW)
Exeter, 2012
Slobodan P. Simonović

15. 15| WEF Modelling Policy communication process
Example ANEMI – policy scenarios
Policy communication process
Set of interviews
Identification of policy questions by the research team
Identification of scenarios
Initial set of scenarios
Carbon pricing
Economic growth rate
Water pricing
North American water stress
Irrigation
Energy subsidies and pricing
Land use change
Final choice
Carbon tax
Increased water use
Food production increase
Carbon tax scenario
$10 per tonne of CO2e in 2012
reaches $275 per tonne in 2100
carbon capture for coal at $75 per tonne
Increased water use
increased water use by 15% to meet growing demand
Food production increase
increased agricultural area by 15% to grow more food
Exeter, 2012
Slobodan P. Simonović

16. 16| WEF Modelling Key findings Policy keeps atmospheric
Example ANEMI – Carbon tax scenario (global)
Linear ramp tax implemented for industrial emissions
$10 per tonne of CO2e in 2012 CO2e
Reaches $275 per tonne in 2100
Carbon capture for coal at $75 per tonne
Key findings
Policy keeps atmospheric
CO2 concentration < 550 ppm
Exeter, 2012
Slobodan P. Simonović

17. 17| WEF Modelling Input Key findings
Example ANEMI – Increased water use scenario (global)
Input
Increased water use by 15% to meet growing demand
Key findings
Significant change
Population, Water stress
Minor change
CO2, Temperature, Energy production
Exeter, 2012
Slobodan P. Simonović

18. 18| WEF Modelling Inputs Key findings
Example ANEMI – Increased food production scenario (global)
Inputs
Increase the land conversion rate by 15% from forest to agriculture
Key findings
Significant change
Population, Water stress
Minor change
CO2, Temperature, Energy production
Exeter, 2012
Slobodan P. Simonović

19. 19| WEF Modelling WEF nexus Systems approach
Example ANEMI – conclusions
WEF nexus
New challenges
High level of integration
High level of complexity
Common concerns
Systems approach
Modelling of the whole system
System dynamics simulation (and optimization)
Modelling of various scales
Global
Regional ….
ANEMI model example
Exeter, 2012
Slobodan P. Simonović

20. 20| WEF Modelling www.slobodansimonovic.com -> research -> fids
Resources
Simonovic, S.P., and E.G.R. Davies (2006). “Are we modeling impacts of climate change properly?”, invited commentary, Hydrological Processes Journal, 20, pp
Davies, E.G.R. and S. P. Simonovic (2009). Energy Sector for the Integrated System Dynamics Model for Analyzing Behaviour of the Social-Economic-Climatic Model. Water Resources Research Report no. 063, Facility for Intelligent Decision Support, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, London, Ontario, Canada, 191 pages. ISBN: (print) ; (online)
Davies, E.G.R, and S.P. Simonovic, (2010). “ANEMI: A New Model for Integrated Assessment of Global Change”, the Interdisciplinary Environmental Review special issue on Climate Change, 11(2/3):
M. Khaled Akhtar,M.K., S. P. Simonovic, J. Wibe, J. MacGee and J. Davies (2011). An Integrated System Dynamics Model for Analyzing Behaviour of the Social-Energy-Economy-Climate System: Model Description. Water Resources Research Report no. 075, Facility for Intelligent Decision Support, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, London, Ontario, Canada, 211 pagesISBN: (print) ; (online)
Davise, E.G.R. and S.P. Simonovic (2011). “(2011) “Water Resources and Integrated Assessment Modeling – the ANEMI Model”, Advances in Water Resources (available online: 18 February 2011), 34:
-> research -> fids
Exeter, 2012
Slobodan P. Simonović