1. UCF http://champs.cecs.ucf.edu Tides and Waves for the National Weather Service River Forecast System TIDES AND WAVES FOR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVER FORECAST SYSTEM Mr. Yuji Funakoshi Dr. Scott C. Hagen, P.E.

2. UCF http://champs.cecs.ucf.edu Tides and Waves for the National Weather Service River Forecast System Outline Pseudo-Operational Forecast and Science Goals Finite Element Meshes St. Johns River Hydrodynamic Modeling Results St. Johns River Hurricane Floyd Modeling Results Conclusions Future Work

3. UCF http://champs.cecs.ucf.edu Tides and Waves for the National Weather Service River Forecast System Dr. Pedro Restrepo, NOAA/NWS/OHD Ms. Reggina Cabrera, SERFC

4. UCF http://champs.cecs.ucf.edu Tides and Waves for the National Weather Service River Forecast System NOAA/NWS/OHD Project Goals Development of a 2D model for the St. Johns River to predict in real-time flow, tides (astronomic and meteorologic) i.Develop the model and examine test cases ii.Examine uni-coupling model of short and long wave models iii.Fully couple the short and long wave models

5. UCF http://champs.cecs.ucf.edu Tides and Waves for the National Weather Service River Forecast System Works Completed by February 7, 2005 Model calibration for the entire Western North Atlantic Tidal (WNAT) Model domain. Development of a preliminary finite element mesh for St. Johns River. Preliminary tidal hydrodynamic simulation for St. Johns River.

6. UCF http://champs.cecs.ucf.edu Tides and Waves for the National Weather Service River Forecast System Works Completed by January 20, 2006 Development of some finite element meshes. –Including more tributaries. –Pseudo-operational model. Tidal hydrodynamic simulations Hurricane Floyd storm surge simulations

7. UCF http://champs.cecs.ucf.edu Tides and Waves for the National Weather Service River Forecast System Western North Atlantic Tidal (WNAT) Model Domain North America South America Central America Open-Ocean Boundary 60 o W Meridian Edge of Blake’s Escarpment Continental shelf break Florida

8. UCF http://champs.cecs.ucf.edu Tides and Waves for the National Weather Service River Forecast System Mayport Wekela Lake George Florida Coast JacksonvilleBuffalo Bluff St. Johns River Region Flow

9. UCF http://champs.cecs.ucf.edu Tides and Waves for the National Weather Service River Forecast System Code name = WNAT-SJR 75,436 nodes 138,622 elements Max node space = 160 km Min node space = 50 m 70 o W 80 o W 30 o N 20 o N 10 o N 110 km 100 km 160 km Florida 60 o W Cuba North America South America Central America 1 km

10. UCF http://champs.cecs.ucf.edu Tides and Waves for the National Weather Service River Forecast System Code name = Pseudo-operational 26,543 nodes 47,763 elements Max node space = 40km Min node space = 50 m Florida Coast 1 Mayport Jacksonville 80 m 170 m 50 m 2 450 m 100 m 200 m 3 50 m 200 m 50 m 70 m Buffalo Bluff 4 80 m 400 m Lake George Wekela 110 m

11. UCF http://champs.cecs.ucf.edu Tides and Waves for the National Weather Service River Forecast System Numerical Model ADCIRC-2DDI (ADvanced CIRCulation, Two-Dimensional Depth- Integrated, Barotropic Time-dependent Long Wave Model) –Solving the Generalized Wave Continuity Equation (GWCE, Luettich et al., 1992) and non-conservative momentum equations. –Wetting and Drying algorithm. –Meteorological input (i.e., wind direction, wind stress, and pressure)

12. UCF http://champs.cecs.ucf.edu Tides and Waves for the National Weather Service River Forecast System Model Setup for Tidal Hydrodynamics w/o Inflow 90 days simulation. Time steps = 5 s. Open boundary forcing (K 1, O 1, M 2, S 2, N 2, K 2, and Q 1 ). Bottom friction coefficient C b = 0.0025. Pseudo-Operational Model No inflow from tributaries. No meteorological input.

13. UCF http://champs.cecs.ucf.edu Tides and Waves for the National Weather Service River Forecast System 1 2 3 4 Mayport Wekela Lake George Buffalo Bluff 12 NOS Tidal Stations in St. Johns River Harmonic Analysis NOS : 37 tidal constituents Model: 23 tidal constituents 8720832 WELAKA, SJR, FL 8720625 RACY POINT, SJR, FL Days into Resynthesis Deviation from M.S.L. (m) Days into Resynthesis Deviation from M.S.L. (m) Days into Resynthesis Deviation from M.S.L. (m) 8720220 MAYPORT, FL

14. UCF http://champs.cecs.ucf.edu Tides and Waves for the National Weather Service River Forecast System 2005 Atlantic Storm Tracks

15. UCF http://champs.cecs.ucf.edu Tides and Waves for the National Weather Service River Forecast System Model Setup for Tidal Hydrodynamics w/ Inflows 122 days simulation (June 1 to September 30, 2005). Time steps = 5 s. Open boundary forcing (K 1, O 1, M 2, S 2, N 2, K 2, and Q 1 ). Bottom friction coefficient C b = 0.0025. Pseudo-Operational Model Inflow from tributaries using USGS gage data. No meteorological input.

16. UCF http://champs.cecs.ucf.edu Tides and Waves for the National Weather Service River Forecast System WWTD, MAYPORT NAVAL STA. I-295 BRIDGE, WEST END BUFFALO BLUFF ADCIRC Inflow Locations Calibration Location USGS gage Locations

17. UCF http://champs.cecs.ucf.edu Tides and Waves for the National Weather Service River Forecast System 1 Mayport 8720211 WWTD, MAYPORT NAVAL STA., SJR, FL

18. UCF http://champs.cecs.ucf.edu Tides and Waves for the National Weather Service River Forecast System 2 8720357 I-295 BRIDGE, WEST END, SJR, FL Inflow

19. UCF http://champs.cecs.ucf.edu Tides and Waves for the National Weather Service River Forecast System 3 Buffalo Bluff 8720767 BUFFALO BLUFF, SJR, FL Inflow (no data)

20. UCF http://champs.cecs.ucf.edu Tides and Waves for the National Weather Service River Forecast System Residual vs. Precipitation and Winds Daily precipitations at Jacksonville, FL Daily precipitations [in] Daily precipitations at Jacksonville, FL Daily precipitations [in] Daily residual [m] Daily averaged and max wind speed [mph] Daily averaged and max wind speed at Jacksonville, FL Daily averaged and max wind speed [mph] Daily averaged and max wind speed at Jacksonville, FL Daily residual [m]

21. UCF http://champs.cecs.ucf.edu Tides and Waves for the National Weather Service River Forecast System Residual vs. Precipitation and Winds Daily precipitations at Sanford, FL Daily precipitations [in] Daily precipitations at Sanford, FL Daily precipitations [in] Daily residual [m] Daily averaged and max wind speed [mph] Daily averaged and max wind speed at Sanford, FL Daily residual [m] Daily averaged and max wind speed [mph] Daily averaged and max wind speed at Sanford, FL

22. UCF http://champs.cecs.ucf.edu Tides and Waves for the National Weather Service River Forecast System Model Setup for Hurricane Floyd Storm Surge 4.75 days simulation (September 12 to 16, 1999). Time steps = 5 s. Open boundary forcing (K 1, O 1, M 2, S 2, N 2, K 2, and Q 1 ). Bottom friction coefficient BF_0.001 and BF_0.0025 Pseudo-Operational Model Inflow from tributaries using USGS gage data. Meteorological input (wind stress and pressure)

23. UCF http://champs.cecs.ucf.edu Tides and Waves for the National Weather Service River Forecast System Hurricane Floyd (NOAA, 1999)

24. UCF http://champs.cecs.ucf.edu Tides and Waves for the National Weather Service River Forecast System

25. UCF http://champs.cecs.ucf.edu Tides and Waves for the National Weather Service River Forecast System

26. UCF http://champs.cecs.ucf.edu Tides and Waves for the National Weather Service River Forecast System 9/15/99 22:00 (H3) 9/15/99 20:00 (H3) 9/15/99 18:00 (H3) 9/15/99 16:00 (H3) 9/15/99 13:00 (H4) 9/15/99 10:00 (H4) 9/15/99 7:00 (H4) Deviation from M.S.L. (m) 8720587 ST. AUGUSTINE BEACH, ATLANTIC OCEAN, FL Deviation from M.S.L. (m) 8720220 MAYPORT, FL Deviation from M.S.L. (m) 8720030 FERNANDINA BEACH, AMELIA RIVER, FL Deviation from M.S.L. (m) 8720832 WELAKA, FL

27. UCF http://champs.cecs.ucf.edu Tides and Waves for the National Weather Service River Forecast System Conclusions Successful Hydrodynamic Model for the St. Johns River Tradeoffs: –Large Domain vs. Inlet-Based Pseudo-Operational Domain Hurricane Floyd Simulation Results –For the SJR, meteorological forcings are more important than inflows

28. UCF http://champs.cecs.ucf.edu Tides and Waves for the National Weather Service River Forecast System Future Works Employ output from a wind-driven short wave model with a long wave model and produce a uni-directional coupling of the two models Fully couple the short wave model with the long wave model Explore the effect this modeling approach

29. UCF http://champs.cecs.ucf.edu Tides and Waves for the National Weather Service River Forecast System The Image of the Coupling Domain 20 m Ocean Circulation Model Domain Global Wave Model Domain Local Wave Model Domain

30. UCF http://champs.cecs.ucf.edu Tides and Waves for the National Weather Service River Forecast System Short Wave Model(s) The third generation wave models (e.g., WAM, SWAN, WAVEWATCH-III, and STWAVE models). –Integrates the basic transport equation describing the evolution of a two- dimensional ocean wave spectrum without additional assumption. –Source functions (i.e., wind input, nonlinear wave-wave interaction, and white-capping dissipation, etc.,). –Applied to ocean wave forecasting all over the world. –Global model > 20 m (Global WAM, WAVEWATCH-III) –Local model < 20 m (Local WAM, SWAN, STWAVE)

31. UCF http://champs.cecs.ucf.edu Tides and Waves for the National Weather Service River Forecast System Manuscripts & Publications Dietsche, D., S.C. Hagen, and P. Bacopoulos, “Storm Surge Simulations for Hurricane Hugo (1989): On the Significance of Inundation Areas,” Journal of Waterways, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering, In Revision. S.C. Hagen, A. Zundel and S. Kojima, “Automatic, Unstructured Mesh Generation for Tidal Calculations in a Large Domain,” International Journal of Computational Fluid Dynamics, In Review. Salisbury, M.B. and S.C. Hagen, “The Effect of Tidal Inlets on Open Coast Storm Surge Hydrographs,” Coastal Engineering, In Review. Funakoshi, Y. and S.C. Hagen, “A Tide and Storm Surge Model for the St. Johns River,” Ocean Engineering, In Review. M. Salisbury and S.C. Hagen, “The Effect of Tidal Inlets on Storm Surge Hydrographs,” Proceedings, WAVES 2005, Madrid, Spain, CD-ROM, July 3-7, 2005. Y. Funakoshi and S.C. Hagen, “Towards an Integrable Short and Long Wave Model for Tidal Hydrodynamics,” Proceedings, WAVES 2005, Madrid, Spain, CD-ROM, July 3-7, 2005.

32. UCF http://champs.cecs.ucf.edu Tides and Waves for the National Weather Service River Forecast System Satoshi Kojima, M.S.W.R. (Graduated SU05) Yuji Funakoshi, Ph.D. Candidate D. Michael Parrish, Ph.D. Qualified Peter Bacopoulos, Masters Student David Coggin, Masters Student Mike Salisbury, Masters Student Naeko Takahashi, ESL Student Acknowledgements