1. WORKING GROUP 1 MODELING OF WIND WAVES AND SURGE EVENTS IN THE CASPIAN, BLACK, AZOV AND BALTIC SEAS

2. High-resolution retrospective analysis of wind waves in the Russian coastal zones of the Azov, Baltic, Black and Caspian Seas High-resolution retrospective analysis of surge events in the Russian coastal zones of the Azov, Baltic, Black and Caspian Seas TASKS OF WORKING GROUP 1

3. INITIAL DATA BATHYMETRY Caspian Sea 5 km x 5 km Black Sea 5 km x 5 km Azov Sea 0.02° x 0.01° Baltic Sea 0.05° x 0.05°

4. INITIAL DATA WIND FORCING NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Caspian Sea - ~1,9x1,9°, 6 hour, 1948-2010Black Sea - ~1,9x1,9°, 6 hour, 1948-2010Azov Sea - 0.3° x 0.3°, 1 hour, 1979-2010Baltic Sea - ~1,9x1,9°, 6 hour, 1948-2010

5. SWAN (Simulating Waves Nearshore) ADCIRC (Advanced Circulation Model) SMS (Surface Water Modeling System) MODELS

6. Spectral wave model SWAN Friction JONSWAPNonlinear quadruplet wave interactionsTriad wave-wave interactionsBreakingDiffraction

7. ADCIRC ADVANCED CIRCULATION MODEL FOR OCEANIC, COASTAL AND ESTUARINE WATERS (ADCIRC) is a system of computer programs for solving time dependent, free surface circulation and transport problems in two and three dimensions. Typical ADCIRC applications include modeling tides and wind driven circulation, analysis of hurricane storm surge and flooding, dredging feasibility and material disposal studies, larval transport studies, near shore marine operations. ADCIRC is a highly developed computer program for solving the equations of motion for a moving fluid on a rotating earth. ADCIRC can be forced with: - elevation boundary conditions; - normal flow boundary conditions; - surface stress boundary conditions; - tidal potential; -earth load/self attraction tide.

8. SMS - The Complete Modeling Solution Flexible modeling approaches Aquaveo pioneered the conceptual model approach. Work with large, complex models in a simple and efficient manner by using the conceptual modeling approach and easily update or change the model as needed. SMS also has powerful tools to build meshes and grids. 3D visualization optimized for performance SMS is the most advanced software system available for performing surface-water simulations in a three-dimensional environment. Interact with models in true 3D Optimized OpenGL graphics for improved hardware rendering. Create photo-realistic renderings Generate animations for PowerPoint or web presentations Drape images over the model and control the opacity Annotations – Add north arrows, scale bars, reference images, company logos, and more Import what you need Models require data from many different sources. That’s why SMS is built to easily import numerous file types: Raster images including georeference and projection support; Topographical maps & aerial photos; Elevation & bathymetry data; Web data services such as TerraServer; ArcGIS geodatabases and shapefiles CAD files including.dwg,.dgn, and.dxf formats

9. ESTIMATION OF EXTREME WIND WAVE HEIGHTS Initial Distribution Method (IDM) Annual Maxima Series (AMS) Peak Over Threshold (POT) Quantile Function Method (BOULVAR) Initial Distribution Method Generalized characteristic of the wave regime are regime distributions. Analysis of measurement data showed that one-dimensional distribution of wave heights and periods are described by a logarithmically normal distribution: where μ - mathematical expectation, σ - the standard of the wave height logarithms. This distribution can be expressed in another way: where s=1/σ. To calculate the characteristics of extreme wave was the initial distribution method (IDM, Initial Distribution Method), in which to evaluate the highest wave height is taken quintile h(p) of regime height distribution F (h) for a given probability p:

10. COMPUTING RESOURCES NRAL Mini Cluster NRAL HP-Server Super Computer “Lomonosov” Peak Performance 510 TFlops Number of Processors/Cores 10260/44000 Memory 73 290 Gb

11. WIND WAVE The largest calculated parameters of wind waves

12. CASPIAN SEA

13. BALTIC SEA

14. BLACK SEA

15. AZOV SEA

16. WIND WAVE Seasonal variability

17. Number of storms Average duration, h Average area, km 2 CASPIAN SEA BALTIC SEA

18. WIND WAVE Long-term variability

19. CASPIAN SEABLACK SEA BALTIC SEA

20. WIND WAVE Significant wave height of a possible 1 time in 100 years

21. BLACK SEACASPIAN SEA BALTIC SEA AZOV SEA

22. SURGE EVENTS

23. Grid -107651 cells and 54805 nodes Black line - the boundary of the computational domain; blue line – shoreline; red points – sea; blue points - land Storm surge - 23-27 December 1968 NORTHERN CASPIAN

24. AZOV SEA

25. NOVEMBER 2007