1. Campaigns and elections

2. Purposes of elections legitimize governments
fill public offices and organize governments
allow people with different views and policy agendas to come to power
ensure that the government remains accountable to the people
involve the electorate
provide mandates-- A command, indicated by an electorate’s voters, for the elected officials to carry out their platforms

3. Campaigns today Campaign tasks performed by Expensive
Media consultants
Direct-mail firms
Polling firms
Political technology firms
Expensive
$7.1 billion in 2012 campaign cycle (combined races)
Media consultants and ads largest campaign expense
Ads mostly target voters’ fears
Some work to engage positive emotions
Unclear if ads influence election outcomes
Candidate centered

4. Campaigns today Better or Worse? Here and Abroad Extensive polling
High-tech canvassing (micro-targeting)
Campaigning = fundraising
Here and Abroad
U.S. elections have two crucial phases:
Getting nominated and getting elected
Requires individual effort
In most of Europe, party organization decides
Who is allowed to run
What candidates appear on ballots

5. Kinds of elections
Primary Election (Begins in New Hampshire for presidential candidates)
Election in which voters decide which of the candidates within a party will represent the party in the general election. Begins in New Hampshire.
Closed
Open
Crossover voting
Caucus (Begins in Iowa for presidential candidates)
General Election
Voters actually choose the person to fill the vacant office

7. Kinds of elections Initiative Referendum Recall
An election that allows citizens to propose legislation and submit it to the state electorate for popular vote
Referendum
An election whereby the state legislature submits proposed legislation to the state’s voters for approval
Recall
Voters can remove an incumbent from office by popular vote, are very rare

8. Primary campaign vs. General campaign
Mobilize political activists
Ideological extremes
General Campaign
Mobilize voters
Ideological center

9. Congressional elections
Lesser known candidates, more difficulty getting media attention
TURNOUT IS LOW IN PRIMARIES
Only 25% of potential voters participate
activists tend to turn out
More ideologically liberal and conservative than the general population
Incumbency Advantage (80-90%)
Incumbents are rarely challenged but Senate more than House
OPEN SEATS no incumbent running
Name recognition & high visibility are the keys to success
INCUMBENTS outspend challengers 3 to 1

10. Congressional elections
Why Do Incumbents win?
franking privilege
constituent service and large professional Congressional staff
free news maker press coverage & visibility
seniority and plums of committee assignments
help from party, big donors, and interest groups-- money, expertise, etc
Reasons for rare incumbent loses:
Redistricting/Gerrymandering
Baker v. Carr
Wesberry v. Sanders
Miller v. Johnson
Scandals
Presidential coattails

11. Congressional elections
Midterm Congressional Elections
Election takes place in the middle of a presidential term (2014)
President’s party usually loses seats in midterms
Tendency for voters to punish the president’s party more severely in the sixth year of an eight year presidency
Retrospective voting
Senate races
Very expensive (average campaign cost $3.5 million)
Challengers are usually experienced, popular politicians—more competitive
Seen as stepping stone to the White House

12. Congressional elections
House races
Small constituency
Fewer serious challengers; many safe seats due to redistricting
Less expensive to run
More sensitive to voters demands because of 2 year election cycle

13. Presidential elections
CHANGES IN THE PROCESS:
PARTY LEADERS CHOSE NOMINEES
NOW CITIZENS VOTE AT THE STATE LEVEL TO CHOOSE NOMINEES

14. Presidential elections
Voters Delegates nominee

15. Presidential elections
Parties hold nominating elections in each state
PRIMARY
CAUCUS
Howard Dean after losing Iowa:
SUPER TUESDAY

16. Presidential elections
Primary/Caucus Vote Count Overview:
THE NATIONAL PARTY GIVES A CERTAIN NUMBER OF DELEGATE VOTES TO EACH STATE (similar to electors being allowed to represent each state)
EACH STATE WILL HOLD A PRIMARY OR A CAUCUS
THE CANDIDATE RECEIVING A MAJORITY OF THE VOTE IN THE PRIMARY OR CAUCUS WILL BE AWARDED THAT STATE’S DELEGATES TO THE NATIONAL CONVENTION BY ONE OF TWO FORMULAS:
WINNER TAKE ALL (Republicans)
PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION (Democrats)
For example, the Dems give GA 124 delegates and the Repubs give GA 76 delegates.
In 2008, Barack Obama won GA’s Democratic primary with 66% of the votes, he received 82 delegates. Hillary Clinton came in 2nd with 30% of the vote. She received 37 delegates.
In 2012, Newt Gingrich won GA’s Repub primary, he received all 76 delegates

17. Presidential elections
State of Oceana has 100 delegates to both conventions
10% of vote goes to candidate A
40% of vote goes to candidate B
50% of votes goes to candidate C
How many delegates to the Democratic national convention does A,B, and C receive?
How many delegates to the Republican national convention does A,B, and C receive?

18. Presidential elections
The National Conventions
ONCE A TIME OF SUSPENSE, NOW JUST A BIG POLITICAL STAGE SHOW
DELEGATE VOTES COUNTED, NOMINEE OFFICIALLY ANNOUNCED
RUNNING MATE ANNOUNCED
SPEECHES AND RATIFICATION OF PARTY PLATFORM
A BIG POLITICAL PEP RALLY

19. Presidential elections
1968 Democratic Convention, A Turning Point
George McGovern initiated changes to the rules to prevent another convention disaster
Quota for female and minority delegates was established
proportional representation was mandated and a requirement to vote by state rule
Due to the great debate within Democratic party about changes
Compromise was made – SUPERDELEGATES
How important are superdelegates
Will Dems keep Superdelegates?

20. Presidential elections
1968 Democratic Convention, A Turning Point
George McGovern initiated changes to the rules to prevent another convention disaster
Quota for female and minority delegates was established
proportional representation was mandated and a requirement to vote by state rule

21. Presidential versus Congressional Campaigns
Congressional Race
Less Competitive
Winner usually gets over 60 % of the vote
Fewer voters (non- presidential years)
Closer to constituents
Can deny responsibility
Incumbency advantage
Presidential Race
More competitive
Winner usually gets less than 55% of the vote
More voters
Held responsible by voters
Congressional elections have become increasingly independent of presidential elections.
Copyright © 2015 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

22. The electoral college #electors per state = #House+ # of Senators
Voters electors candidate
Majority (270) to win or a runoff occurs in House
Winner take all (except Maine and Nebraska)
Congressional elections have become increasingly independent of presidential elections.
Copyright © 2015 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

23. The electoral college #electors per state = #House+ # of Senators
Voters electors candidate
Majority (270) to win or a runoff occurs in House
Winner take all (except Maine and Nebraska)
Congressional elections have become increasingly independent of presidential elections.
Copyright © 2015 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

24. The electoral college Result of compromise
Framers did not trust the people
ex. George Mason: “allowing the people to choose the president was like entrusting a trial of colors to a blind man”
Framers knew that the group with the power to select the President would have great power over him/her.
Small states feared a direct election would give larger states an advantage
Gouverneur Morris worried that indirect election by Congress or state legislatures would lead to corruption

25. The electoral college
Three essentials to understanding the design of the Electoral College
Constructed to work without political parties
Constructed to cover both the nominating and electing phases of presidential selection
Constructed to produce a nonpartisan president
12th. amend.--corrects the tie between President & VP because they run as pairs from a single party

26. The electoral college If no candidate receives a majority:
top 3 presidential candidate's names go to House -- each state delegation has one vote; each state= 1 vote votes wins
Framers believed this was how all elections would be decided
top TWO vice presidential candidates names go to Senate man equals 1 vote votes wins
The Electoral College Today
apportionment matters—has recently favored Republicans
Representation of states in the Electoral College is altered every ten years to reflect population shifts

27. The electoral college Reform? Reform proposals:
unlikely because of exaggerated influence of small states
Reform proposals:
complete abolition—go to direct election
Proportional electoral count
Electoral vote is proportional to the popular vote in each state
Congressional district plan
each candidate would receive1 electoral vote for each congressional district he/she wins. Winner of the pop. vote for the state would get 2 bonus votes