1. Nuclear or Unclear: Powering ahead with nuclear energy Dr Vaibhav Chaturvedi Research Fellow Council on Energy, Environment and Water Based on paper co-authored by Prof. Priyadarshi R. Shukla (IIM Ahmedabad, India) and Mr. Karthik Ganesan (CEEW, India) Climate Day: Negotiating the Climate Cliff: India’s Climate Policy and INDCs New Delhi, 03 Feb 2015 © Council on Energy, Environment and Water, 2015

2. | 1 CEEW: addressing global challenges through an integrated approach

3. | Introduction Energy access an important development challenge, hence all energy technologies need to be considered simultaneously Nuclear power arguably the most controversial form of energy Need for independent, impartial and analytical assessment of the role of nuclear power in India’s energy and climate policy 2

4. | Cost is going to be a defining factor! Between 2008 and 2013, cost of nuclear power plants increased by 98% (AEO 2008, AEO 2013) Historical experience with nuclear power plants has delivered little confidence in the cost and economics of nuclear power plants Fundamental uncertainties in the cost of key components of fuel cycle (MIT, 2011) Ultimately, any risk mitigation measure is bound to increase the cost of nuclear power plant installation and operation 3

5. | Sensitivity analysis around future nuclear energy cost trajectories 6 cost scenarios- Reference, 10% increase, 25% increase, 50% increase, 100% increase, and Complete Retirement scenarios 2 policy scenarios- Reference, and Two Degree scenarios 4

6. | Modelling Framework: Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) Economy-Energy-Agriculture Market Equilibrium (Edmonds et al., 2004) 14 Global Regions Fully Integrated Explicit Representation of Energy Technologies Tracks 15 greenhouse gases Dynamic-recursive model Typically runs to 2095 in 5-year time steps Used extensively for energy and climate policy analyses conducted for DOE, EPA, IPCC, etc. (Clarke et al., 2007)

7. | Nuclear energy’s role with varying costs 6 Nuclear energy share in electricity generation 2050 share Ref sc2 Degree sc Ref Cost8%20% 25% increase5%13% 100% increase2%5%

8. | Conclusion Nuclear energy highly sensitive to any further increases in cost NUCLEAR LIABILITY OFF-SETS CLIMATE LIABILITY Domestic manufacturing, insurance pool, snall modular reactors, unambiguous policy environment? Finally, bridging the information chasm about the risks from nuclear power plants among stakeholders will help to find best-fit for nuclear power in India’s long-term optimal energy mix. 7

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