1. CBRFC Updates Michelle Schmidt, Hydrologist in Charge

2. Outline CBRFC Climate Services ET project Migration to CHPS Status of HEFS efforts Linkage to USBR mid-term probabilistic

3. Climate Services currently offered by River Forecast Centers -Partial List- Water Supply Forecasts Probabilistic forecasts for amount of spring melt in western USA Forecasts issued at least monthly January through June Support water management and drought decision making Joint responsibility with NOAA/RFCs and NRCS/NWCC wateroutlook.nwrfc.noaa.gov Weather and Climate Analysis Hourly, daily, and monthly analysis – both real time and retrospective In situ and remote sensing data merged through manual QC process Weather and climate datasets downscaled to basin scales Mosaic precip analysis webpage (water.weather.gov/precip) one of NWS’s most popular Peak Flow Forecasts Probabilistic forecasts snowmelt peak flow in western USA Forecasts issued at least monthly March until peak flow occurs Support water management and emergency management decision making www.cbrfc.noaa.gov for examplewww.cbrfc.noaa.gov Stakeholder Decision Support Established working relationships with many major water agencies Many stakeholders receive climate services already from RFCs Operational center staffed 365 days per year with real time support Water Supply Webinars

4. Potential New Climate Services based on RFC capabilities Climate Change Hydrologic Sensitivity RFCs have well calibrated models covering every major watershed in the country. These models may be used to assess basin sensitivities to modified temperatures and/or precipitation Water Resources Outlook RFC models simulate real time soil moisture, snow, and streamflow Streamflow forecasts – coupled with weather and climate forecasts - may be used to generate outlooks for water resources nation wide Hydrologic Expertise NOAA envisions RFCs becoming centers for water resources information Hydrology, climate, and meteorology expertise at RFCs is extensive and applied What’s Needed? Historical RFC focus on flood forecasting is important and needs to continue RFCs need to be engaged in the dialogue on climate and drought services.

5. 2. Dynamic evaporative demand in the Sac-SMA model across CBRFC replacing the current, static ET driver of the Sac-SMA model with a physically based, accurate, and temporally dynamic driver; improving ET-treatment in river forecast operations; improving streamflow forecast skill at water-supply seasonal (and daily) time-scales; CBRFC operational questions: - calibration of basins: parameter choice, optimizations scheme, time-scales, skill statistic - water supply forecast time-scales // seasonal volumes - daily operations // low flows, peak flows, peak-flow timing -incorporation of seasonal drivers (e.g., Climate Forecast System) 1. Forecasting reference crop ET (ET rc ) across NWS Western Region providing ET rc forecasts that are scientifically sound, web-disseminated, fine-resolution, accurate, and daily-to-weekly; CBRFC developed a 30-year, CONUS-wide climatology to add value to these forecasts; primarily for use in agriculture – irrigation scheduling significant promise in drought analyses: ongoing drought monitoring and forecast drought development examining historic drought trends as a US Drought Monitor input: monitor currently has no explicit ET-related input its PDSI input has a temperature-based E p driving its bucket model also useful for utility districts’ demand-planning; trans-mountain diversions; reservoir operations; hydrologic science community ET project goals and accomplishments:

6. Forecasting ET rc Climatology surface, specific to date and tailored to WFO Forecast surface, generated at WFO + NLDAS: North American Land Data Assimilation System Air temperature at 2 m Specific humidity at 2 m Down-welling SW radiation Down-welling LW radiation Station pressure Wind speed at 10 m Hourly input Daily output CONUS-wide 0.125-deg (~12 km) resolution NDFD: National Digital Forecast Database Air temperature at 2 m Dewpoint temperature at 2 m Wind speed at 2 m Areal extent of cloud cover Hourly, 3-hourly, or 6-hourly time- steps 2.5-km / 5-km resolution HRAP grid FRET website for Sacramento, CA http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/forecast/evap/FRET/FRET.php?wfo =sto

7. Streamflow at Animas R,1983 Mean annual E pan, 1980 -2009 Dynamic evaporative demand across CBFC: Animas River test-basin mean, max, min daily E pan (1980-2009) current, static E 0 E pan across Animas R, 1980 - 2009 (& 1983) 1983 daily E pan

8. Community Hydrologic Prediction System - CHPS New modeling structure at all RFCs Facilitate testing new model components Facilitate research to operations More insight into the model used Implementation complete by end of 2011

9. 9 9 Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System Atmospheric Ensemble Pre-Processor Hydrologic Ensemble Post-Processor Hydrology and Water Resources Models Hydrology and Water Resources Ensemble Product Generator Parametric Ensemble Processor Land Data Assimilator Ensemble Forecast Products Verification Products ForecastersUsers Ensemble Verification System

10. 10 Current HEFS Test Basins at NWS River Forecast Centers Pre-Processor, Post-Processor, HMOS Data Assimilation

11. Example Testing at CBRFC Lake Powell inflow forecast A 30-day ensemble forecast for entire upper basin is generated daily (219 points) Based on GFS reforecast and CFS ensembles

12. (End of) Schedule

13. Coordinated Forecast (single number) 24 month study Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System Mid-Term Probabilistic Model Stakeholders Seasonal water resources forecasting and modeling in the Colorado Basin circa 1980 - 2010 Seasonal water resources forecasting and modeling in the Colorado Basin Near future CBRFC and the USBR Mid-Term Probabilistic Model (MTPM) Development USBR UC and LC regions developing a probabilistic operations model to augment (and possibly replace) the 24 month study MTPM will produce probabilistic forecasts for major USBR reservoir operations based on: Objective operating criteria CBRFC ensemble forecasts Multiple model iterations (one per each CBRFC ensemble member – currently 30 members) MTPM and CBRFC ESP/HEFS will support risk based decision making CBRFC began providing ESP forecasts to USBR in Oct 2010 CBRFC will work with USBR as CBRFC transitions to HEFS

14. Bottom line… CBRFC is an operational office. This means: – Staffed and issue forecasts 365 days/year – Support stakeholder decisions and maintain relationships with stakeholders – Conduct and facilitate R&D to improve forecasts and products February Water Supply Forecast

15. CBRFC and NIDIS CBRFC ForecastsClimate and Weather Forecasts Hydro Models Research Decision Makers Value NIDIS

16. Michelle Schmidt CBRFC Hydrologist in Charge Phone: 801.524.5130 Email: michelle.schmidt@noaa.govmichelle.schmidt@noaa.gov Feedback, Questions, Concerns always welcome…. www.cbrfc.noaa.gov