2. Events vs. Trends While other societies can be traced to specific events that lead to their collapse, our global society faces a dilemma that is trend-driven. Soil erosion, falling water tables, rising carbon emissions are not easily reversed. Monsoons, droughts, heat waves are specific events, temporary repercussions.

3. Food as a Weak Link Supply & Demand are in a constant imbalance Rising Sea LevelsRising Sea Levels Available Land Melting ice caps Soil Erosion SUPPLY:DEMAND: Population Growth Increased animal consumption Use of grain to fuel cars Rich vs. Poor countries

4. Resource Trends Affecting Supply  Cropland loss to non farming:  Increase in paving of roads  Suburban sprawl  Advancing deserts  Cropland loss to non farming:  Increase in paving of roads  Suburban sprawl  Advancing deserts Diversion of irrigation water to cities:  Diversion of irrigation water to cities:  Growing population drinks more water  Cities (Denver) not near large bodies of water  Over pumping of aquifers  Reduction of oil supplies:  Increased use of automobiles  Increased food production (tillage, irrigation, harvesting  Easy access oil well running dry

5.  Cropland loss to non farming:  People turning to oceans for protein, world seafood supply is now dependent on fish farms  Increased demand for fish feed as a result of farming fish  Cropland loss to non farming:  People turning to oceans for protein, world seafood supply is now dependent on fish farms  Increased demand for fish feed as a result of farming fish  Reduction of oil supplies:  More oil resources burned by going deeper/further to harvest oil  Decline in available oil results in not enough affordable fuel to keep producing crops, turn to genetically modified organisms Results: ”Business as usual is no longer a viable option”  Diversion of irrigation water to cities:  Aquifers run dry, can no longer grow crops (Saudi Arabia discontinuing wheat production as of 2016)  Shortage in water shrinks grain harvest, leads to need for genetically modified organisms  Diversion of irrigation water to cities:  Aquifers run dry, can no longer grow crops (Saudi Arabia discontinuing wheat production as of 2016)  Shortage in water shrinks grain harvest, leads to need for genetically modified organisms

6. Politics of Food Background: * Countries that imported goods were no longer able to rely on the market, sought to make long term deals with countries still willing to export…to no avail. Background: * Countries that imported goods were no longer able to rely on the market, sought to make long term deals with countries still willing to export…to no avail. In 2007 Russia and Argentina started banning exports in an attempt to keep domestic food a reasonable price.

7. Land Buyouts  Affluent countries (Saudi Arabia) purchased land in poorer nations such as Ethiopia.  Affluent countries are also buying land for water use.  Usually controversial agreements between affluent and host countries.  Affluent countries (Saudi Arabia) purchased land in poorer nations such as Ethiopia.  Affluent countries are also buying land for water use.  Usually controversial agreements between affluent and host countries.

8. Results  Host countries now have less land to feed the already starving nation.  Host country has less water, even greater dependence on imported grain.  Host nations have even more political unrest.  Buyouts usually occurring in countries with tropical rainforests, results in slash and burn.  Farmers are not involved in land buyout agreements, are forced to leave their land, greater unemployment rate.  Host countries now have less land to feed the already starving nation.  Host country has less water, even greater dependence on imported grain.  Host nations have even more political unrest.  Buyouts usually occurring in countries with tropical rainforests, results in slash and burn.  Farmers are not involved in land buyout agreements, are forced to leave their land, greater unemployment rate.

9. Global Economy Ponzi

10. Paul Hawken: Blessed Unrest

11. Sir Nicolas Stern: The difference between Market Price for fossil fuels and Honest Price is great Honest Price: What you pay, plus the environment and society costs (in 2009 gas should have been $ 15 per gallon) Everything from Market Price Cost of climate change Tax subsidies to the oil industry Military protection costs Healthcare costs This type of market behavior is leading to the destruction of natural support systems Destruction of natural support systems leads to state failure

12. Failing States: Characteristics  High fertility rates in women  High rates of population growth  Majority of population is young (40% under 15)  Deterioration of physical infrastructure  High fertility rates in women  High rates of population growth  Majority of population is young (40% under 15)  Deterioration of physical infrastructure

13. Failing States: Results  Food shortages  High food prices  High percentage of unemployed youth  Political unrest  Lacking in functional healthcare system  Breakdown of law and order, loss of personal security  Food shortages  High food prices  High percentage of unemployed youth  Political unrest  Lacking in functional healthcare system  Breakdown of law and order, loss of personal security

14. Failing States (2008) Scores are based on 12 social, political, economical, and military indicators out of 120.

15. Plan B: A Plan to Save Civilization  Cutting carbon emissions  Stabilizing the population  Eradicating poverty  Restoring the earths natural systems  Cutting carbon emissions  Stabilizing the population  Eradicating poverty  Restoring the earths natural systems

16. Cutting Carbon Emissions Dramatically raise energy efficiency worldwide By 80% in 2020 Investing in renewable resources Banning deforestation, planting trees by the billions

17. 8 Billion Must Reduce Fertility Projected 9.2 billion by 2050 with 2.4 billion in developing countries Needs to stop before mortality rate increases Stabilizing the Population

19. Restoring the Earth’s Natural Systems  Conserving soil  Banning deforestation  Promoting reforestation  Restoring fisheries  Protecting aquifers by raising water productivity  Essential to reverse the rise in hunger  Conserving soil  Banning deforestation  Promoting reforestation  Restoring fisheries  Protecting aquifers by raising water productivity  Essential to reverse the rise in hunger