1. -TRED Study Overview- Director Jim Lynch Montana Department of Transportation January 28, 2006 Glasgow, MT

2. 2 Goals  Provide Information on the US 2/MT 16 TRED Study  Describe the Process  Identify Next Steps

3. 3 What is the “TRED” Study?? T ransportation R egional D evelopment E conomic Study of US 2 and MT 16 segments of Theodore Roosevelt Expressway in Montana

4. 4 TRED Study Purpose  Purpose: Identify economic, regulatory, or operational changes that would result in traffic and safety conditions that justify 4 lanes on the Theodore Roosevelt Expressway in Montana.

5. 5 What Area Does the Study Cover? Study Corridor

6. 6 Relationship to Federal Environmental Review Requirements (NEPA)  TRED Study is Pre-NEPA ND US 2 EIS & MT US 2 Havre-Fort Belknap EIS were NEPA  If TRED shows high probability of traffic to warrant a four lane - then-  Next step is NEPA -- using TRED results for Federally required “purpose and need”

7. 7 Why this Corridor??  August 2005 Congressional Action named MT 16 and US 2 east from Culbertson as segments of Theodore Roosevelt Expressway “High Priority Corridor” The entire corridor begins in Port of Laredo Texas and ends at the Port of Raymond, MT

8. 8 Why this Corridor??  The corridor provides regional connectivity and mobility with North Dakota and Saskatchewan  If expanding the corridor to a 4-lane is justified, the US 2 section of the Theodore Roosevelt Expressway may be the best place to start

9. 9 TRED Economic Analysis  GOAL: What is the probability future traffic (especially commercial) will be high enough to justify a 4-lane to meet safety and capacity needs? STEPS in Economic Analysis  Study Existing condition Feb – June 1. Corridor Operations 2. Existing Economic Development Plans / Opportunities

10. 10 Steps in TRED Analysis Next:  Build a 30-year traffic/freight model Apr – June  Model will not be a “black box”  Model will be customized for MT and TRED study area  Load existing condition information  Calibrate model for two different alternatives 1. Modern 2-lane 2. 4-lane

11. 11 Steps in TRED Analysis con’t Sensitivity and Risk Analysis July and August  Identify and Test model against future scenarios  Determine probability of changes in traffic volumes based on scenarios  Input from Expert Panel on rural economics  Conclusions and Recommendations End of October

12. 12 Future Scenario & Sensitivity Tests  Will truck volumes increase if.....  Crude oil stays high and exploration continues  Grain moves from rail to truck  Coal to fuel conversion technology is deployed  Grain shipment is further consolidated and trucks travel further on TRE  A 4-lane is built across MT and ND?????  What is the probability of each scenario?  The public will help define the scenarios

13. 13 Results of Sensitivity Tests  Incremental freight movements in study area ++ normal growth in traffic  ++ Incremental freight increases on US 2  ++ Anticipated reduced safety and degradation of Level of Service (LOS)  ++ Risk-adjusted traffic & LOS = Cumulative, potential need to add lanes

14. 14 What does this mean? Example Probability of diverting traffic from I 90 * Probability crude oil will force continued exploration * Probability manufactured goods will cross at Raymond if size/wgts change in MT * WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY A 4-LANE IS NEEDED FOR SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ? Other =

15. 15 End Result is a Central Forecast and Probability of Achieving Alternate Scenarios Scenario Probability Of Surpassing Est. Traffic Vol. (1000s) Percentage Of Trucks A90%2.3636.5% B60%3.1042.0% C20%4.2047.5% Etc… Mean Expected Outcome ???

16. 16 Why Focus on Traffic and Safety?  Potential economic development was not a factor in the selection of the preferred ND 4- lane alternative by FHWA. Safety and capacity issues related to military convoys were major factors in selection.  Traffic and safety issues can stand the test with permitting agencies.

17. 17 Why Focus on Commercial Traffic?  Speed differential between trucks and cars causes reduced level of service  Commercial trucks are weighted more heavily in level of service calculations

18. 18 Where will the Data Come From?  Existing regional economic conditions and opportunities Interviews with Ag. Groups, Commercial transport companies Scope: – Northern Great Plains of Eastern MT & Western NS/SD & Southern Saskatchewan Meetings with elected officials, commercial shippers, general public Questionnaires Surveys Known economic development plans Sectors: oil/gas, grain production, rail, tourism, other?

19. 19 Who Will Conduct the Study?  MDT lead and final decision-maker But- results will have to stand up in a NEPA process where Federal agencies decide  Consultant firm (HDR) with engineers, planners, & economists with international experience in transportation and economic development

20. 20 Outreach  MDT has already reached out to ND, SD, and Saskatchewan  Kick-off Meeting First week in March  Public Meeting Late June  Stakeholder Workshop Early August Goal: bring interested parties and experts together to Assess findings and help analyze risk

21. 21 Outreach cont.  Economic Analysis Public Involvement Open House Mid – August  2 nd Stakeholder workshop on Conclusions and Recommendations Late September  2 nd Public Open House Early October

22. 22 Next Steps  There will be a kick-off meeting in early March..  Location???  A web site regarding the study will soon be available …. Sign up and we will contact you.  Let us know if you want to be involved

23. 23 Contacts  MDT  Dick Turner, Multimodal Bureau Chief  406 - 444 - 7289  HDR – Consultant Team  Don Galligan, HDR Boise Idaho  208 - 387 - 7058

24. 24 Questions??