1. RAMS, MM5, & CAMx SIMULATIONS OF MIDDLE-EAST O 3 TRANSBOUNDARY TRANSPORT Erez Weinroth 1,2, Shoukri Kasakseh 1,3 Robert Bornstein 1 (pblmodel@hotmail.com) pblmodel@hotmail.com 1 San Jose State Univ. (SJSU), San Jose, CA 2 Hebrew Univ. Jerusalem, Israel (HUJI) 3 Applied Research Institute Jerusalem (ARIJ), Bethlehem, West Bank presented at the presented at the AMS Urban-Coastal Conference, Sept 2007

2. Outline Project background Project background Intro to Mid-East met Intro to Mid-East met Methodology Methodology Results: Results: patterns Synoptic-scale patterns factors (obs) Mesoscale factors (obs) Mesoscale simulations RAMS and MM5 RAMS and MM5 CAMx CAMx Conclusions & future work Conclusions & future work

3. Background USAID-MERC project (2000-2006) USAID-MERC project (2000-2006) Scientists from Palestinian Territories, Israel, & USA Scientists from Palestinian Territories, Israel, & USA Objectives accomplished: Objectives accomplished: Installation of environmental monitoring stations in West Bank and Gaza Installation of environmental monitoring stations in West Bank and Gaza Preparation of environmental databases (SJSU web page) Preparation of environmental databases (SJSU web page) Field campaigns during periods of poor air quality Field campaigns during periods of poor air quality Application of numerical models for planning Application of numerical models for planning RAMS & MM5 meso-met RAMS & MM5 meso-met CAMx photochemical air-quality CAMx photochemical air-quality

4. Topo-heights & O 3 sites Meso-met sites Jordan Carmel and Galil Shomron and Judea Israel

5. Black Sea dominated by 700 hPa Low-p system  inland lobe of Azores H thus split (W & E segments) Protrusion from W-segment penetrates inland to Western Saudi Arabia IMS 700 hPa, July 29, 0000 UTC * H H Med Black Sea

6.  Sfc Persian-through thermal-Low protrusion (1002 hPa contour) continued to expand westward  Protrusion from high (1008 hPa contour) retreated IMS SFC Obs, July 31, 0000 UTC L H * Med 1002 1008 Black Sea Turkey

7. Flow Dir: weak down-slope off coastal-mountains at  Coastal plain: offshore (to W) from W-facing slopes  Haifa Pen. (square): offshore (to E ) from E-facing slopes  Inland sites: directed inland (to E) from E-facing slopes Low-O 3  generally <40 ppb)  Haifa still at 51 ppb Night obs of sfc flow: 3-AM LST (00 UTC) L L H

8. Winds:  Reversed  Stronger: up 6 m s -1  Coastal plain: Onshore/upwind, from SW  Inland sites: Channeling (from W) in corridor (box) from Tel- Aviv to Jerusalem area (at Modiin site). Higher daytime O 3  max at Mappil, 66 ppb  2 nd max at Modiin, 63 ppb Day Obs: 1200 NOON LST L H H L

9. RAMS Configuration  3 Grid Spacings 20 km over E-Med for background synoptic forcing 20 km over E-Med for background synoptic forcing 5 km over Israel, West Bank, and Gaza for meso- scale sea/land & mt/valley flows 5 km over Israel, West Bank, and Gaza for meso- scale sea/land & mt/valley flows 1.25 km for Tel Aviv- Jerusalem transport-corridor 1.25 km for Tel Aviv- Jerusalem transport-corridor  Domain GPs: 45 x 45, 74 x 54, and 146 x 218 for Domains 1-3  24 vertical levels  1 st full grid cell at 125 m  Topography: GTOPO30  ECMWF for IC and BC  Model run at HUJI  Simulations start: 00 UTC on 1 August 97 & end 72-h later 900 Km 270 Km 370 Km 180 Km 270 Km 900 Km

10. MM5 Configuration  Version 3.7  3 domains 15, 5, 1.67 km Grid Spacings 15, 5, 1.67 km Grid Spacings 59 x 61, 55 x 76, 58 x 85 Grid Points 59 x 61, 55 x 76, 58 x 85 Grid Points  32 σ-levels up to 100 mb up to 100 mb first full σ-level at 19 m first full σ-level at 19 m  Lambert-conformal map projection (suitable for mid lat regions)  Two-way nesting  5-layer soil-model  Gayno-Seaman PBL  Simulations Start: 00 UTC, 29 July Start: 00 UTC, 29 July End: 00 UTC, 3 Aug End: 00 UTC, 3 Aug  Single CPU, LINUX (SJSU-Lightning)

11. ECMWF-pressures correctly captured movements of large- scale surface pressure-systems Thus ECMWF provided good SFC IC/BC for RAMS & MM5 L H * L H

12. Obs (below); 7 AM, 1 Aug: all down-slope (off-shore, except where inland-direct at inland sites)  RAMS 7 AM SFC WINDS (ABOVE)  Off coast: Southwesterly (no obs)  Coastal plain: Downslope/offshore from SSE  Inland: Inland directed  Southern: from NW vs. from W in obs RAMS

13. Obs, 7 AM, 1 Aug: all down-slope, off-shore (except where inland-direct at inland sites), reproduced from previous slide MM5 7 AM sfc winds (above)  Off coast: onshore from W (like ECMWF; no obs)  Coastal plain: downslope/offshore from SSE (in obs & RAMS; can’t be in coarser ECMWF)  Inland sites: inland directed (obs & ECMWF)  Southern: obs&MM5 are westerly; RAMS was NW

14. Obs, 1 PM, 1 Aug: All westerly/onshore flow RAMS 1 PM sfc winds (above) Off coast: Onshore from SW (no obs??)  Coastal plain: upslope/onshore (in obs, but can’t be in coarser ECMWF-results)  Inland sites: inland directed (in obs, MM5, & ECMWF)  South (circle): NW in RAMS, as in obs RAMS

15. Obs, 1 PM on 1 Aug: All westerly/onshore flow MM5 1 PM sfc winds (above)  Off coast: onshore from W (like ECMWF; no obs)  Coastal plain: upslope/onshore (in obs & RAMS)  Inland sites: inland directed (in obs & RAMS  South (circle): NW (in RAMS & Obs)

16. Mid-east Obs vs. MM5: 2 m temp (Kasakech ’06 AMS) July 29August 1August 2 July 31 Aug 1 Aug2 Standard-MM5 summer night-time min-T, But lower input deep-soil temp  better 2-m T results  better winds  better O 3 obs Run 1 MM5:Run 4 Obs Run 4: Reduced Seep-soil T First 2 days show GC/Syn trend not in MM5, as MM5-runs had no analysis nudging

17. Obs vs. MM5: V (m/s) July 31 August 1August 2 OBS Run 3 Note: non-reproduced synoptic trend in max-speed

18. Emission Inventory: 1997-8 15 Large Stationary (point) sources (58% fuel consumption) 15 Large Stationary (point) sources (58% fuel consumption) 400 Medium Stationary (point) sources (7%) 400 Medium Stationary (point) sources (7%) Small Stationary (area) sources (12%) Small Stationary (area) sources (12%) Solvents (area) sources Solvents (area) sources Biogenic Stationary (area) sources (isoprene and monoterpene) Biogenic Stationary (area) sources (isoprene and monoterpene) Mobile (area) sources, both ground based and aerial (22%) Mobile (area) sources, both ground based and aerial (22%)

19. Jerusalem Flight Path 0 0-20 20-40 40-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-95 95-105 105-120 O 3 ppb 1 Aug, 1500 LST RAMS/CAMx (left) O 3 vs. airborne Obs (right) at 300 m: > Secondary-max: over Jerusalem; in obs (but underestimated by 15%) from coastal N-S highway sources > Primary-max: found in Jordan (no obs) from Hadera power-plant Irbid, Jordan Hadera Power  Plant.

20. All emission sources 1.8.97 15:00 0 0-20 20-40 40-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-95 95-105 105-120 Legend O 3 ppb All industry sources Without industry sources 1.8.97 15:00 > All emission sources (see below, left & previous slide) > All industry sources (see below center) > Main (tall-stack) industry sources > Medium and small (low-stack) industry > Without Industry (only Vehicles, Solvents & Vegetation) (below right) > Vehicles only > Without vehicles (only all-Industry, Solvents & Vegetation) > Without emissions (only IC and BC) 300 m CAMx ozone from 3 of the 8 Emission Input Scenarios (below) 1.8.97 15:00

21. Ozone Peaks for all 8 Scenarios: 1 Aug ‘97 Source O 3 Peak (ppb) Comparison to “All Sources” Peak in % (discounting initial 45 ppb) All sources 116100% Without emissions 5615% Industry low 5818% All industry 9875% Industry large 9773% Without Industry 8251% Without vehicles 10381% Vehicles8049%

22. SUMMARY (1 of 2) Synoptic-obs during a summer sfc Persian-Trough period Synoptic-obs during a summer sfc Persian-Trough period 700 hPa L moved southward over area  700 hPa L moved southward over area  Azores High retreated Sfc-L moved to W  reduced-subsidence from high  inversion-base raised Sfc-L moved to W  reduced-subsidence from high  inversion-base raised Persian sfc-L was N of (not over) area  Persian sfc-L was N of (not over) area  typical (but, not episode) sfc O 3 -levels Meso-obs showed Meso-obs showed Meso (daytime Mt/sea + nighttime valley/land) breezes Meso (daytime Mt/sea + nighttime valley/land) breezes Jerusalem O 3 -max: from inland-transport of coastal auto-emissions Jerusalem O 3 -max: from inland-transport of coastal auto-emissions

23. SUMMARY (cont.) Model-results showed  RAMS & MM5 reproduced surface-flows  Daytime sea breeze and upslope flows  Nighttime land breeze and downslope flows  CAMx/RAMS  Reproduced obs Jerusalem O 3 -max (due to coastal-autos)  Showed even larger (previously-unknown) max over Jordan (due to Hadera power-plant emissions)

24. CURRENT & FUTURE WORK Improved MM5-simulations Improved MM5-simulations FDDA analysis nudging to better FDDA analysis nudging to better capture synoptic trends Move to urbanized : uMM5 & uWRF Move to urbanized : uMM5 & uWRF Compare RAMS & MM5 Compare RAMS & MM5 Inputs to CAMx Inputs to CAMx Verify sfc & PBL transport-patterns Verify sfc & PBL transport-patterns New USAID/MERC obs & modeling projects with New USAID/MERC obs & modeling projects with Jordan (started June 2007) Jordan (started June 2007) Egypt (passed initial review August 2007) Egypt (passed initial review August 2007) Lebanon (pre-proposal invited for Dec 2007) Lebanon (pre-proposal invited for Dec 2007)

25. Key References Matveev, V., et al., 2002: Long-range trans-portation of air pollutants from Europe to Israel. Isr. J. Earth Sci., 51, 17-28. Matveev, V., et al., 2002: Long-range trans-portation of air pollutants from Europe to Israel. Isr. J. Earth Sci., 51, 17-28. Doron, E., and J. Neumann, 1977: Land and mountain breezes with special attention to Israel’s Mediterranean coastal plain. Israel Meteor. Res. Papers, 1, 109-122. Doron, E., and J. Neumann, 1977: Land and mountain breezes with special attention to Israel’s Mediterranean coastal plain. Israel Meteor. Res. Papers, 1, 109-122. Dayan, U., and L. Koch, 1996: Ozone concentration profiles in the LA Basin – A possible similarity in the build-up mechanism of inland surface ozone in Israel. JAM, 35, 1085-90. Dayan, U., and L. Koch, 1996: Ozone concentration profiles in the LA Basin – A possible similarity in the build-up mechanism of inland surface ozone in Israel. JAM, 35, 1085-90. Ranmar, D., et al., 2002: Impact of coastal transpor- tation emissions on inland air pollution over Israel utilizing numerical simulations, airborne measurements, and synoptic analyses. JGR, 107. Ranmar, D., et al., 2002: Impact of coastal transpor- tation emissions on inland air pollution over Israel utilizing numerical simulations, airborne measurements, and synoptic analyses. JGR, 107. Weinroth, E. et al. 2007: RAMS/CAMx modeling. Submitted Atmos. Environ. Weinroth, E. et al. 2007: RAMS/CAMx modeling. Submitted Atmos. Environ.

26. Thanks… Questions ?