1. MM5, RAMS, & CAMx Simulations of Summer- time Middle-East O 3 (Funding: USAID-MERC Program) Shouk_mcsd@yahoo.com Shoukri Kasakseh †o, Robert Bornstein o, Erez Weinroth # ºSan Jose State University, San Jose, CA, USA † Applied Research Institute-Jerusalem, Bethlehem, West Bank, Palestine # Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel Presented at the 86th AMS Annual Meeting Jan-Feb 2006 Atlanta, Georgia

2. Outline Background Synoptic-scale circulation patterns Obs of 0 3 mesoscale transport-patterns MM5 and RAMS met simulations CAMx 0 3 simulations Conclusions Future work

3. Middle East Synoptic Types ref: Dyan and Levy (2002), JGR Account for 74% of O 3 episodes over region  High pressure over eastern Med Sea (Spring): 25%  Red sea trough over Israel (Fall): 29%  Shallow Persian trough (Summer): 20%  Five others + undefined: 26% Shallow Persian (thermal) troughs: produce high O 3, as they are caped by N. African sub-tropical H, which produces:  subsidence warming, stabilization, & shallow mixed layers  sunshine and rapid photochemistry Current effort investigates a Persian trough occurrence that coincided with HUJI aircraft O 3 observations

4. Eastern-Med dominated by Low-p system  inland lobe of Azores H thus split into W & NE segments Protrusion from Western High penetrates inland to Western Saudi Arabia Obs IMS 700 hPa, July 29, 0000 UTC *

5. 700 hPa ECMWF: same day L L H H ECMWF IC/BC captures position & strength of: L; split (W & NE) Highs; & protrusion from W high  good upper IC/BC for RAMS/MM5 *

6. Eastern edge of Azores High (1023 hPa): over Europe (NW of study region), with eastward (“projection”) ridge from its S-lobe; over center of study region Sfc Persian Trough (“projection”) line (996 hPa): N of study area E-W oriented cold-front to N: between H & Persian L IMS SFC Obs, July 29, 0000 UTC H L * H Trough line Ridge line

7. ECMWF SFC Pressure (left): Correctly captures position & strength of H, Persian Trough Low, W-E cold front (grey area), & both “projections” (hard to see) ECMWF D-1 concurrent SFC V (right): dominated by “projections,” with counterclockwise flow N of area (over Med Sea) is influenced by eastern-L and clockwise flow S of area (Israel & Sinai) is influenced by South-lobe of western-H good SFC IC/BC for RAMS/MM5 H L H L H

8. Available O 3 sites (Left is sub-domain of MM5 Domain 2); ridge-lines shown.

9. O3 Station #Station Name 1Kiryat Ata 2Newe Shaanan (CU) 3Nesher 4Maapil (I) 5Cent. Station 6 Antokolski (CU) 7Fire Dept. 8Yavne Group 9Oil Site 10Modiin (I) 11Ashdod 12Gedera 13Ashdod YA (CNU) 14Ashdod Y 15Ashkelon 16Kiryat Gat Sites: I = Inland, CU = Coastal Urban CNU = Coastal Non-Urban

10. Flow Dir: weak down-slope off coastal mountains: for  Coastal plain: offshore (to W) from W-facing slopes  Haifa Pen. (square): offshore (to E ) from E- facing slopes  Inland sites: directed inland (to E) from E-facing slopes Low-O 3  generally <40 ppb)  Haifa still at 51 ppb Night : 3 AM LST (00 UTC) L

11. Winds:  Reversed  Stronger: up 6 m s -1  Coastal plain: Onshore/upwind, from SW  Inland sites: Channeling (from W) in corridor (box): Tel- Aviv to Jerusalem (Modiin station). High daytime O 3  Max at Mappil, 66 ppb  2 nd max at Modiin, 63 ppb Day : 1200 NOON LST L H H

12. O3 time series for Aug,1 Inland sites: day max (auto sources) Coastal urban: day min (via max titration) Coastal non-urbanized: Moderate day values (less titration) Night time min Obs Peak is at 11 LST. Why?

13. RAMS Configuration (Weinroth 2004)  3 Grids –20 km over E-Med for background synoptic forcing –5 km over Israel, West Bank, and Gaza for meso-scale sea/land & mt/valley flows –1.25 km for Tel Aviv-Jeru- salem transport-corridor  Domains GPs: 45 x 45, 74 x 54, and 146 x 218 for Domains 1-3  24 vertical levels  1 st full grid cell at 125 m  Topography GTOPO30 project  ECMWF for IC and BC  Simulations start at 0000 UTC on 1 August 97 & end 72-h later 900 Km 270 Km 370 Km 180 Km 270 Km 900 Km

14. MM5 Configuration (Kasakseh 2006)  Version 3.7  3 domains: –15, 5, 1.67 km Grid Spacing –59 x 61, 55 x 76, 58 x 85 Grid Points  32 σ-levels –up to 100 mb –first full σ-level at 19 m  ECMWF IC and BC  Two-way nesting  5-layer soil model  Gayno-Seaman PBL  Simulations –Start: 0000 UTC, 29 July ‘97 –End: 0000 UTC, 3 Aug ‘97  Single LINUX CPU (SJSU- Lightning)

15. Obs vs. MM5: T(t) July 29August 1August 2 July 31 Aug 1 Aug2 Standard MM5 over-predicts summer night-time min-T (Bornstein 2006, this Conf)  lower deep soil temp  better T-results  better Winds  better O 3 from changing GC/synoptic conditions  MM5 needs analysis nudging obs MM5:Run1 MM5:Run 4

16. Obs, 7 AM, 1 Aug: all down-slope:off-shore (except where inland-direct at inland sites) Off coast: South-Westerly (no obs, so ?)  Coastal plain: downslope/offshore from SSE (in obs, but can’t be in coarser ECMWF-results)  Inland sites: inland directed (in obs & ECMWF) RAMS

17. Obs, 7 AM, 1 Aug: all down-slope, off-shore (except where inland-direct at inland sites) MM5 Domain-2  Off coast: onshore from W (like ECMWF; no obs??)  Coastal plain: downslope/offshore from SSE (in obs & RAMS, but can’t be in coarse ECMWF- results)  Inland sites: inland directed (in obs & ECMWF)

18. Obs, 1 PM on 1 Aug: All westerly/onshore flow Off coast: Onshore from SW (no obs??)  Coastal plain: upslope/onshore (in obs, but can’t be in coarse ECMWF-results)  Inland sites: inland directed (in obs, MM5, & ECMWF)  South (circle): NW as in MM5 (No Obs) RAMS

19. Obs, 1 PM on 1 Aug: All westerly/onshore flow MM5 Domain-2  Off coast: onshore from W (like ECMWF; no obs)  Coastal plain: upslope/Onshore (in obs & RAMS, but not in ECMWF-results)  Inland sites: inland directed (in obs & ECMWF)  South (circle): NW (as in RAMS & ECMWF; no Obs?)

20. Jerusalem Flight Path 0 0-20 20-40 40-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-95 95-105 105-120 O 3 ppb 1 Aug, 1500 LST RAMS/CAMx (left) vs. Airborne Obs (right): from Weinroth (2004)  Secondary max (underestimated) from autos: over Jerusalem (in obs)  Primary max from power-plants: in Jordan (no obs) Irbid, Jordan Hadera Power  Plant.

21. SUMMARY OF RESULTS Observations during a summer Persian-Trough period produced typical (not episode-level) O 3 (as it was somewhat N of area) show –Meso (down/up slope + sea/land) breezes dominate coastal flows –Jerusalem O 3 max due to coastal auto emissions –Coastal-urban O 3 min due to NO x titration Model-results show –RAMS & MM5 reproduce surface flows –CAMx reproduced the observed Jerusalem O 3 max and produced an even larger previously-unknown max over Jordan due to power plant emissions

22. FUTURE WORK Improved MM5 simualtions –Modified IC soil moisture to improve max-T –Incorporate FDDA analysis nudging Compare PBL transport patterns in RAMS and MM5 Run CAMx with MM5 met-input and compare to results from RAMS/CAMx Move to uMM5 and uWRF

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