1. CAMx simulations of Middle-East ozone concentration-trends by use of RAMS and MM5 input Shoukri J. Kasakseh Shouk_mcsd@yahoo.com Shoukri J. Kasakseh †º, R. Bornstein*, E. Weinroth# ºSan Jose State University, San Jose, CA, USA †Applied Research Institute-Jerusalem, Bethlehem, West Bank, Palestine #Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel 86th AMS Annual Meeting, 2006, Atlanta, Georgia

2. Outline Background

3. Funded USAID-MERC project. Research team is composed of experts from USA, Israel, Palestine, Jordan and expected more nations to join in. Installation of environmental monitoring sites and preparation of comprehensive environmental databases & regional climatology. Field observational campaigns during periods of poor regional air quality. Application of RAMS & MM5 meteorological models and CAMx photochemical air quality model to increase our understanding of air quality problems.

4. Important Check !!! PBL flow is combination of: (1) Synoptic scale forcing. (2) Mesoscale thermal circulations. First analysis step is determination if synoptic IC/BC capture key observed pressure centers and their temporal changes. Let’s do it !!

5. MM5 Configuration Version 3.7 3 domains –15, 5, 1.67 km Grid Spacing –59 x 61, 55 x 76, 58 x 85 Grid Points 32 σ-levels –up to 100 mb –first full σ-level at 19 m ECMWF for IC and BC Two-way nesting 5-layer soil model Gayno-Seaman PBL Simulation –Start: 0000 UTC on 29 July (1997) –End: 0000 UTC on 03 August (1997) SJSU LINUX single CPU.

6. RAMS Configuration Grid spacing of 20 km  for the Eastern Mediterranean area to reproduce background synoptic forcing 5 km for Israel, West Bank, and Gaza to reproduce mesoscale sea/land and mountain/valley flows 1.25 km for transport patterns along the Tel Aviv to Jerusalem corridor domains GP are 45 x 45, 74 x 54, and 146 x 218, respectively. 24 vertical levels Topography was obtained from the GTOPO30 project. Simulations started at 0000 UTC on 1 August 1997 and ended 72 h later. ECMWF for IC and BC 900 Km 270 Km 370 Km 180 Km 270 Km 900 Km

7. (1) Eastern Mediterranean dominated by a low-pressure system (central height 3090 m). (2) inland lobe of the Azores High into western-boundary (central height 3210 m) and northeast segments (central height 3160 m). (3) A small protrusion from the western high has penetrated just inland of the western Saudi Arabian boundary. Obs pressure heights for July 29, 0000 UTC

8. ECMWF for the same day LL H H (1)ECMWF IC/BC captured the position and strength of the low. (2)The positions and strengths of the western and northeastern highs were also well represented. (3)The small protrusion form the western high into western Saudi Arabia was likewise well represented L

9. (1)Main low moved eastward and expanded horizontally to the east. (2)The western high did not move, but it strengthened by 10 m, while the northeastern high has weakened (no longer with any closed contours), due to the intrusion of the main low. (3)The protrusion inside Saudi Arabia is better defined, but weakened by 20 m.

10. ECMWF

11. Wind at 7AM on Aug, 1 MM5 RAMS

12. Wind at 1PM on Aug, 1 MM5 RAMS

13. Wind at 7PM on Aug, 1 MM5 RAMS