1. Climate mitigation at the UNFCCC Georgina Woods, Climate Action Network Australia g.woods@cana.net.au Sept. 2009 Emissions data taken from WRI, or from party submission to UNFCCC

2. Background: where are we? Huge gap between necessary mitigation and current commitments and pledges Ambitions of AOSIS and LDCs: 350ppm 1.5° 45% A1 aggregate. Combined pledges of A1 (excl. US): between 15 and 21% below 1990 levels by 2020 Bali range (25-40%) gives 50% chance of avoiding runaway climate change.

3. Future commitments: Kyoto Kyoto Protocol requires parties to adopt QELRCs for five year periods (first CP 2008-2012) Does this by setting an Assigned Amount (total emissions for that period) Total KP A1 target for CP1 is 5% below 1990.

4. A1 pledges UK 66% of 1990 EU 70-80% of 1990 Norway 70% of 1990 Canada 97% of 1990 Japan 75% of 1990 Aust.76-96% of 1990 On the table for 2020 During KP first CP (to 2012) UK 92% of 1990 EU 92% of 1990 Norway 101% of 1990 Canada 94% of 1990 Japan 94% of 1990 Aust. 108% of 1990 But what about the USA?

5. Future commitments: Long-term Cooperative action Shared Vision Annex 1 aggregate target Peak years Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions International bunkers Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation in developing countries Sectoral approaches

6. Uncertainties Length of commitment Review after IPCC fifth assessment report in 2014? Base years What about countries that haven’t met their 1 st Kyoto commitments (eg. NZ)? Bunkers: 2.4% of world total, but rising fast. Aviation emissions >500Mt pa

7. Complications Double counting: NAMAs as offsets? Finance and technology transfer Offsets: changes to LULUCF rules? Hot air: Russia, Ukraine and Belarus emissions significantly below CP1 targets. Russian pledge is to go from their current position of 33-34% below 1990 levels now, to being 10-15% below in 2020. What to do about the BRICs?

8. BRICs Stands for Brazil, Russia, India and China Without LULUCF: around 29% of global emissions Emissions growing fast: China doubled emissions between 1990 and 2005 Low per capita emissions, need sustainable development.

9. Who will be important? Two thirds of the greenhouse gases emitted between 2000 and 2005 were produced by just five UNFCCC parties: the US (more than one fifth), China, the EU, Russia and Japan. India strongly resisting commitments. Australia chairs the Umbrella group. G77, African group, AOSIS, EU