1. Frank R. Leslie, B. S. E. E., M. S. Space Technology, LS IEEE Adjunct Professor, Florida Tech 1/28/2010, Rev. 1.4 fleslie @fit.edu; (321) 674-7377 my.fit.edu/~fleslie 27 The Future of Energy 2010 Crude Oil NYMEX: $74 on 1/27/10 $102 on 9/29/2008 $90 Low on 9/15/08 $147 High on 7/11/08 $65.71 on 4/25/07 CNNMoney.com

2. Introduction Sustainable energy comes from the sun or from tidal forces of the moon and sun Sustainable” implies not using energy faster than the energy can be replenished In a broader sense, sustainability is not using all our resources, but leaving something for future generations Since fossil fuels represent millions of years of “stored sunlight”, they are depleting and not sustainable Future predictions are predicated upon uncertain trends and assumptions (how much are they wrong?) The future is ill-defined! 100125

3. Are they having fun? Why did this happen?  Does Energy Affect our Lives?  FOXnews 8/15/2003 Happy New Yorkers out for a Stroll! 080820

4. 1 The Age of Cheap Energy is Nearly Over! “Hubbert’s Peak” indicates US oil production peaked about 1970; World peak might be 2007-9 Oil prices are volatile, but the long term trend is up as extraction becomes more expensive Volatile gasoline and diesel prices are increasing erratically in the long term! Natural gas prices are rising and massive hydrogen production will speed that trend  Hydrogen will be made from natural gas first, then coal, then possibly through nuclear thermal conversion or electrolysis from wind or sun --- a matter of cost 100127

5. 1. Overview of Energy Sources Currently, energy primarily comes from combustion of fossil fuels or nuclear energy Electricity and hydrogen are energy carriers, not primary sources! In some areas of the World, wind energy is being significantly developed: Europe, United States, Denmark, Sweden, Germany, India, China are a few Energy sources are so critical to civilizations that many wars have been fought over these resources Lack of common local energy sources can hold back the development of a nation 080820

6. 1.1.1 Energy Source Categories 080805 Alternative Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Fission Conventional RenewableNon renewable

7. Wood Hydro Human/Animal Wind Water Pumping 1.1.2 Energy Source Categories 080805 Alternative Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Fission Conventional RenewableNon renewable

8. Wood Hydro Human/Animal Wind Water Pumping 1.1.3 Energy Source Categories 080805 Geothermal Oil Shale, CTL Tar Sands Methane Hydrates Alternative Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Fission Conventional RenewableNon renewable

9. 1.1.4 Energy Source Categories 080820 Sustainable means using less than is renewed; if water is withdrawn from a dam faster than it is refilled, the level drops and hydro power is lessened, and finally fails Non renewable Renewable ConventionalCoal Oil Gas Nuclear Fission Wood Hydro Human/Animal Wind Water Pumping AlternativeGeothermal Oil Shale, CTL Tar Sands Methane Hydrates Wind Solar Biomass Wave/Tide Ocean Current

10. 1.1.5 Energy Sources (2006) http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/solar.renewables/page/trends/highlight1.html 080825

12. https://publicaffairs.llnl.gov A Hydrogen Economy in 2050?

13. 1.2 Fossil Fuels Long-stored energy from fossil fuels that will be eventually depleted, while renewable energy is sustainable indefinitely As easy-to-get fuel is extracted, costs will rise in getting the more-difficult resources; drill oil at 12,000 feet? Fuels must be transported from farther away, thus increasing total price of it and what’s made with it 080813

14. 1.2.1 Energy Dependence upon Foreign Countries Our dependency on cheap oil has lead to a slavish relationship to the oil dealers  (US dependency on cheap drugs has lead to a slavish relationship with the drug dealers) So do we need a “12-step way” to free us from our oil addiction? 080907 Is it best to use all our oil first so we can be at the mercy of outside despots? --- OR --- Should we use imported oil first to save our US oil for hard times later?

15. 1.2.2 US Crude Oil Sources (2008) US demands 19.9 million bbl petroleum/day but produces 5 million crude; 9.8 million bbl crude/day is imported Some crude is exported, refined elsewhere, and imported as gasoline since the US is short refinery capacity  Still, how to economically justify building a 40-year life refinery for 20-year depleting oil? The offshore continental shelf (OSC) plus western lands might add 3 million barrels per day, but that wouldn’t drive the price much lower 100125

16. 1.2.3 US Energy Imports --- 9/2008 or so Crude oil, for example; 11 million barrel/day (Mbd)  Canada 1.883 Mbd  Saudi Arabia 1.479 Mbd (9.45 Mbd total)  Mexico 1.124 Mbd  Venezuela 1.085 Mbd  Nigeria 0.946 Mbd  Iraq 0.693 Mbd  And Angola, Brazil, Algeria, Russia, Kuwait, Ecuador, Columbia, Chad, Libya The NE US also imports electricity and natural gas from Canada 100125 Photo: www.tesc.edu http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/company_level_imports/current/import.html

17. 1.3 The Hubbert Curve Predicts Fossil Fuel Decline Dr. M. King Hubbert, a geophysicist, predicted in 1956 that the US oil peak would be reached in 1970. Later, others predicted the World oil peak would occur in the first decade of the 21st Century. Past the production peak at 2006-2011 (?), oil prices will increase as extraction becomes more difficult and the price is bid up. www.hubbertpeak.com/midpoint.htm 080813

18. 1.3.1 US Oil Production Peaks! 080805

19. 1.3.2 Some World Oil Production Peaks! 080813 See The Oil Drum for more

20. 1.3.2 Oil Peak www.theoildrum.com/files/2010_January_Oilwatch_Monthly.pdf www.oecd.org/ may help www.theoildrum.com/files/2010_January_Oilwatch_Monthly.pdf www.oecd.org/ 100127

21. 1.3.4 Constant Dollar Energy (2008) www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/overview.html

22. 1.4 “But Wait! There’s More!” We could break away from conventional fuels to use renewable energy (RE)  Wind, solar, hydro, ocean tides, currents and waves, geothermal  Most/much oil is consumed in transportation; efficiency needed The eventual energy changeover will be based more upon relative price as fossil fuels become more expensive compared to the price of renewables RE energies are diffuse compared to fossil fuels, so collection requires a large area converter Fossil fuels have been so cheap that any tending towards “normal” is alleged to be price-gouging, and people demand that the government hold prices down 08097

23. 2. Energy Demand The World produces about 85.4 M bbl/day, but uses about 85.7 million barrels petroleum per day (crude oil + liquids); working on storage The US uses about 20.7 million barrels of petroleum per day while producing 8.3 million barrels per day OPEC produces 32.7 Mbd, ~40% of World demand Major oil pipeline through Country of Georgia 100127

24. 2.1 Supply & Demand Effects Crude oil trades on a world market Electronic trading permits 24-hour trading If the demand exceeds or approaches the supply, prices increase indefinitely The US doesn’t affect the market price as much as world events that threaten the oil supply  Nigeria, Iran, Iraq, war threats, closing the Strait of Hormuz, bombings and deaths, hurricanes, etc China and India are increasing their demands for oil, buying from the same suppliers that we use and competing with us on price 080907

25. Photo from NOAA 2.1.1 Hurricane Katrina & Petroenergy 080820 http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twip_crude.html The heart of US oil production and refineries was struck by Katrina; lost 25% production Production had been shut down to prevent losses and to allow the workers to leave; lost some offshore Gulf rigs Pipelines were shut down in case of storm damage Gasoline shortages occurred throughout the Southeast This shortage lasted several months, but eventual fossil fuel depletion will cause lasting problems and high prices

26. 2.1 US Energy Usage www.eia.doe.gov

27. 2.2 Energy Information Sources and Beliefs Information sources should be skeptically analyzed  Whose info is it? What or who do they represent? What do they really want? What’s their agenda?  Sometimes animal rights organizations push vegan diets for good health, but they really want no animals killed for food PETA now pressing for cloned synthetic chicken so that real chickens won’t be killed Beliefs of an organization may taint or slant data  Nonconforming info is disregarded or modified to make it “right” as it doesn’t match their long-held dogma  They take surveys of their members (~<0.5% of population) and contend that represents the public as a whole  Sometimes pure hatred of the opposition overwhelms the group and taints every expressed viewpoint 100121

28. 2.2.1 How Much Information Trust is Demanded? Is the information available to us accurate and complete? How does the information provider make money?  Does their existence depends upon public hysteria? Does the cash flow diminish if the truth is told?  When polio was conquered, “March of Dimes” switched to another childhood disease to support the organization’s staff US Energy Information Agency is a USA official source  Detailed info considered and published  Delayed about 1-3 years sometimes, unfortunately Commercial industry sources  Platts  American Wind Energy Association, SEIA, & ASES are trade/advocacy groups 080820

29. 2.3 The Bountiful Life We have become conditioned to lives filled with the joys of cheap energy Microwave ovens are more efficient cookers than electric range “eyes”, yet they were developed just to save time Multiple family cars are the norm to allow independent travel of the family members Vehicles enable greater “urban sprawl”  Living farther away from work requires more energy-consuming travel (and money) to get there  Why should a business be located “downtown”?  A clean industry like Harris Corporation in Melbourne, FL is essentially located in a residential area where workers can live nearby 080820

30. 2.3.1 Conspicuous Consumption Some objects are more for show than utility  V-12, 1200 hp Cadillac engine touted in ads  12,000 square foot homes  Expensive imported foods; 1500-mile salad  Long-distance air travel for an hour meeting  “Business” meetings at golf & ski resorts  Birthday party in Sardinia for Tyco exec Kozlowski’s wife  $56,000 Hummers suitable for war support on our highways Potential for a stylish new model with welded, inoperable 0.50 caliber machine gun on roof for show?  Unimog military SUVs now available (upper right) Driven to an Oregon renewable energy fair by an RE fan! Conversely, if someone wants to pay for something wasteful, shouldn’t they be allowed to buy it? 080805 http://www.unimog.net/

31. 3. Energy Considerations Sustainability Global Warming Energy Conservation Energy Efficiency Energy Plans 080815

32. 3.1 Sustainability Using less energy than available so as to not deprive our children & grandchildren  Now hear sustainability applied to National debt Sun provides solar energy until sun fades out  Or goes supernova Lunar power comes from moon and a lesser amount from the sun (tides) Geothermal energy comes from the accretion (meteoroids and dust) of the mass of the earth long ago plus radioactive decay Fossil fuels aren’t being created nearly as fast as we use them --- perhaps one-millionth of use, so unsustainable usage 100125

33. 3.1.1 Sustainability Truly renewable energy is replaced by the sun Nonrenewable energy isn’t replaced at the rate that we use it; coal, oil, or uranium oxide Creation of coal requires ~ a million years “Waste” is something we haven’t yet found a way to recycle Hydroelectricity is sustainable as long as we don’t take too much from the reservoir  The sun heats water, which drops as rain, recharging the streams and rivers until the sun grows cold 080815

34. 3.2 Global Warming Long-term change in climate temperature appears caused by human burning of fossil fuels that emit CO 2 Science is claimed to be absolute on both sides of the argument!  Lots of data uncertainty and mostly politics in debates.  Most agree with climate change, some don’t Ignore that debate, and focus on moving to renewable energy over some 30 to 50 years, reducing waste, and increasing efficiency  That will reduce CO 2 and decrease global warming 100125

35. 3.2.1 Global Warming Effects Carbon dioxide continues to rise to 370 ppm, and a value of some 320 to 350 ppm is considered crucial to limiting global (that’s worldwide) warming Melting of land-supported ice would raise sea level and affect coastal populations; water- supported ice doesn’t raise level Melting of polar ice would increase solar heat absorption since the sea is darker than ice The “Age of Industry” added combustion gases where chiefly forest fires contributed previously 100125

36. 3.3 Energy Conservation Conservation refers to avoiding energy use  Turn off unneeded lights without delay  Don’t use always-on outside lights; use photocell or better, motion detector controls  Test for air conditioning attic duct leaks  Use extra insulation in walls and attic  Use a radiant barrier inside roof  Use white shingles; never black or green!  Do several errands on one driving trip to save gasoline 080820

37. 3.3.1 Energy Efficiency Efficiency means using energy better  Compact Fluorescent Lights (CFLs) use one-quarter the power of incandescent lamps (Edison development) So easy to do, like checking tire pressures!  Wall “knot” transformers/chargers are being designed to be more efficient; often plugged in all the time  Air conditioning/heat pump could use ground source water temperature as a sink or source  Conversely, air conditioner refrigeration could dump heat into incoming water to a water heater; both work more efficiently 080922

38. 3.3.2 “Green Buildings” Buildings use a large amount of energy to offset energy loss through the envelope  Windows, walls, ceiling, floors, and doors  Air lock doors reduce heat loss as people pass Lighting, motors, and bodies provide internal heat that must be removed in summer but is useful heat in the winter When water is heated by the sun, it avoids the consumption of electricity or natural gas 080820

39. 3.3.2.1 Green Energy Cities: US Chicago, IL  Goal: 20% RE by 2006; now 15%  Solar on all municipal buildings RFP issued: Solargenix won  2010: 25% RE; 28% energy mgm’t; 22% distributed generation;25% cogeneration Sacramento, CA  Goal: 10% nonhydro by 2006; 20% by 2011  ~60% RE now; among top ten US cities supplying RE Portland, OR  Goal: new wind farm; green buildings; 100% RE by 2010  10% RE now; 1 million kWh waste methane fuel cells; green tags Austin, TX  “Goal” 35% RE and Efficiency by 2020; solar initiative 100MW by 2020 050805

40. 3.3.2.2 Green Energy Cities: International Reykjavik, Iceland (geothermal and hydro)  Goal: World’s first hydrogen city; whole country by 2050  Shell Hydrogen: electrolysis hydrogen for local buses Vancouver, Canada (hydro plus gas)  Goal: emissions reduced by 20% compared to 1999 emissions  90% RE now’ has 100-year plan” Grand Prize for Urban Sustainability Barcelona, Spain (nuclear is now 49%)  Goal: reduce emissions by 20% compared to 1999 by increasing solar panel installations Sydney, Australia (coal, solar)  Goals: Reduce coal use from 43% and oil use from 35% of total usage  500 MW Singleton Solar Farms 050805

41. 3.4 Energy Plans Polls show the public wants the energy problems fixed; 76% want more oil drilling Presidential candidates had ignored energy problem, speaking in generalities and platitudes, but are now responding with plans Plans reflect their present core beliefs, perhaps, but change frequently Plans differ a lot! I’ll show just one 100127

42. 3.4.1 The Pickens Plan www.pickensplan.com The US pays out $700 Billion each year to foreign oil companies, and they buy the US with it (Chrysler Building to Abu Dhabi, Rockefeller Center by Japan, for example) Oil-man Boone Pickens is committing $58 million just to propose using massive wind farms from Texas to Canada to provide 22% of the utility grid power [owns part of 4 GW wind farm] Retracted plan due to cheaper oil Pickens: “Can’t drill our way out of the problem”, “The market is not driven by speculation”, “US $1 M/day demand destruction (reduction) will be picked up by China” Asks Feds to distribute by new electricity transmission corridors This change would free utility natural gas [$1.59/gallon equivalent gasoline price] to be compressed for use in 18- wheelers and cars; Honda sells the GX CNG car now; Honda FCX is the similar hydrogen version Carl Pope, former Exec. Director, Sierra Club said, “To put it plainly, T. Boone Pickens is out to save America” 100121

43. 3.4.2 Al Gore’s Plan Stop use of all fossil fuels by 2018 --- just 8 years now  No coal, oil (gasoline & diesel), or natural gas used?  Need ~76% fossil fuel replacement in ten years from what????  Could wind energy grow by ~12 GW by then? Nuclear power o.k.? No CO 2 (Gore is really fighting global warming, thus supporting UN IPCC position) Environmental Impact Surveys alone might take 6 years Enviros and other special interest groups are fighting wind turbines, solar thermal, dams, etc. right now  Not in my backyard! NIMBYs abound!  Plus CAVEs: Citizens Against Virtually Everything 100125

44. 3.4.3 US Federal Plans? Congress adjourned on vacation as Senator Pelosi blocked the energy bill coming to a vote; now says there might be a vote (politically) The House passed H.R. 6899, by a vote of 236 to 189  Alternative fuel pumps required  Oil drilling over 50 miles out where oil not likely, Renewable Energy Standard goals set at 15% by 2029 Most Democrats want conservation and renewables, no nuclear or coal plants (including coal to liquid conversion), 40 mpg or higher CAFÉ standards Republicans want higher power levels including coal-to- liquids and nuclear, no CAFÉ standard change Senate won’t pass HR6899 --- Impasse again! 100125

45. 3.4.4 Obama’s Plan Eliminate the need for oil from the Middle East and Venezuela within 10 years [by 2018] "As president, as president, I will tap our natural gas reserves, invest in clean coal technology, and find ways to safely harness nuclear power." Invest $150 billion for energy independence; perhaps nuclear power; double alternative energy in four years with $100 M funding Reduce US electricity demand [it keeps going up] by 15% in 2019 and modernize the utility grid Give every “working family” $1000 and take it from oil company “excessive” profits [8.4%]; Google had 25% Give consumers $7000 credit to buy fuel efficient car (was $4000)  (I just did; do I get a rebate or just pay for the others in my taxes?) Drill offshore ok if part of a “larger strategy” Give $4 billion loans and credits to US car plants; put 1 million 150- mpg PHEVs on roads within six years Sell oil from SPO to lower prices, replacing high quality oil with low quality heavy oil [heavy oil is worth less] Check tire air pressures; [not a plan, but a good idea] 100125

46. 3.4.5 McCain’s Lexington Plan Make US energy independent by 2025 The “Lexington” plan of energy independence by 2025 has expanded oil production (not in ANWR) by drilling offshore (leave up to states), $2B for “clean” coal [thinks coal is renewable!] Build 45 more nuclear plants by 2030; 70k more jobs Accelerate alternative energy technology; wind, solar, tide, and biofuels Build hybrid flex-fuel cars (senses fuel mix & adjusts) $300 million prize for improved electric car battery Suspend SPR purchases during high prices. Suspend 18.4¢/gal gas and 24.4¢/gal. diesel tax. 080820 http://www.johnmccain.com//Informing/Issues/17671aa4-2fe8-4008-859f-0ef1468e96f4.htm

47. 3.4.6 “Gang of 10” Bipartisan Plan This bipartisan group of Congress (5 D + 5 R), dismayed by bickering and inaction, planned a way to try to get around the deadlock; a compromise to get something started Allow drilling in eastern Gulf of Mexico Continue oil company tax breaks Support nuclear energy Fund alternative fuel with $20 billion. Provide tax credits for manufacture and purchase of alternative-fuel energy vehicles. 080817

48. 3.4.7 The Paris Hilton Plan! “Limited drilling offshore with strict environmental oversight” “Create tax incentives to get Detroit to make electric and hybrid cars” “That way, the offshore drilling carries us until the new technologies kick in, which will then create new jobs and energy independence” “Energy crisis solved!” 080907 Ref: Christian Science Monitor [Just trying to be comprehensive here --- work with me!]

49. Energy used is affected by what people want  More so, by what voters tell Congress they want “Needs” are required for life: air (minutes), water (day), food (4 days), heating/cooling (week), shelter (weeks) “Wants” are required for satisfaction, pride, self- indulgence, etc.: a yacht, a third home, a stretch Hummer limousine, a 64-ounce steak, a 100-foot houseboat, etc. 4. Human Interactions, Needs, & Wants 080907

50. 4.1 Is Saving Your Own Money a “Good” Thing to Do? Saving energy isn’t seen as important, but not “being taken” is! Don’t be a gullible, easy target! A change of viewpoint can persuade people to change what they buy  Deeply held “Core values” aren’t easily changed by ranting Most people don’t think about energy prices until it’s a problem to them  High gasoline prices are quickly changing that viewpoint  Life cycle costing is unknown to most people New cars are advertised by monthly payments, not price! Others are concerned about how much they can borrow Conservation is only a “virtue” according to Vice Pres. Dick Cheney -- What do we know? I’d say it saves money! 080820

51. 4.2 Surfeit and Waste: What about Our Grandchildren? Consider the ethics of using up natural resources that our grandchildren, etc. may need  They might not live long enough to discover substitutes If we waste resources, we unnecessarily use what might bridge the gap to a sustainable society If bountiful fossil fuels are required to make renewable energy converters, burning those fuels now will mean new RE converters must be made using RE  Can you imagine smelting iron using RE?  Perhaps use concentrated solar thermal melt systems? 080820

52. 4.3 Cornucopians vs. Cassandras Cornucopians believe that needs will always be provided for  Just in time, a technical breakthrough will allow us to get more for less, and we want more, more, more! Cassandras believe that we are doomed, doomed, doomed!  No matter how we try, we can’t fight these oncoming events that will be our undoing We don’t have to choose one of these philosophies! 080907

53. 4.3.1 Cornucopians vs. Cassandras Cornucopians believe that “needs” and “wants” will always be provided for  Just in time, a technical breakthrough will allow us to get more for less, and we want more, more, more!  The “Horn of Plenty” is always full to overflowing!  “Don’t worry, be happy!”  “If it feels good, do it!” --- Nike trademark 080907 http://desktoppub.about.com/

54. 4.3.2 “The Horn of Plenty” Shall Always Provide As European civilization expanded to North America, necessity led to inventions that preserved life or made it easier or better  Steam train, steam engines, windmills, waterpower, electric lights, telegraph, repeating rifle, telephone, automobiles, airplanes, television, computers, internet, etc. New needs led to solutions; what worked evolved into better approaches 080820 http://desktoppub.about.com/

55. 4.3.3 Cornucopians vs. Cassandras Cassandras shout that “We are doomed”, and no one will listen to them!  Cassandra (mythic legend) was loved by Apollo (sun god) but she spurned him; he punished her by making her unbelievable to everyone  No matter how we try, we can’t fight these oncoming events that will be our undoing and yet no one believes us  “Woe is me!”  “We’ve told you for years that you’re doing the wrong thing! It’s too late anyway”  Me: “What should we do instead?” No answer... 080817

56. 4.3.4 “The Sky is Falling”: What Shall We Do? What Shall We Do? The Malthusian Theory held that the increase in population would swamp limited resources  Death, famine, war, and pestilence would result An apocalyptic result  (It’s been postponed so far!) 1960 Scary movie: “No Blade of Grass” A group of economists, scientists, and doomsayers examine the outlook  RunningOnEmpty.com  DieOff.com  Caution: these sites may not be suitable for children or adults!  Still, there is great emphasis on self-sufficiency 080907 http://www.postermaniacs.com/originals/onesheets/no_blade_of_grass.jpg

57. 4.4 Agendas, Slants, & Scams Agendas (often are kept for the “faithful”)  Wants dam removal for river rafting; argues fish are being killed  Likes yachting in Narragansett Bay; argues wind farms interfere with navigation (in shallow water yet)  Wants next-door forest to remain; they plant endangered species to “be discovered” Oh! look there!; can’t clear this! Slants  Carefully selects info to push the internal “message”; rejects and discredits the opposite view  Selects minor views of opponents and trumpets them Scams  Venture capital gatherers with small chance of success  Solicitations of public donations with 70% going to staff salaries  Car runs on water! 080907

58. 4.5 Direct Effects Upon Consumers High energy bills stretch budgets as prices rise  Electricity (affecting price of products bought)  Gasoline  Natural Gas or heating oil High gasoline price definition:  “Too high” if majority buys fuel efficient vehicles; but “not high” if majority buys poor efficiency vehicles (like 12-16 mpg SUVs and trucks) The “Time” magazine effect: Whenever a subject is so trendy that editors put it on the front cover of Time magazine, the trend may be over  Public thinks this is a “coming issue” when it’s past  “Smart money” is bailing out; don’t rush in 080907

59. 4.6 Lifestyle Changes Needed! Practice energy conservation and save your money for “fun” purchases (and investments for retirement) Increase energy efficiency to save even more money for other needed/wanted uses Think of the marginal utility of “supersizing” your life  Less quantity or fewer features may be acceptable and allow your money to be used for other things you really want  Would you rather eat a slice of watermelon or a whole watermelon? Isn’t there a limit to “wants”? Your time may be far more valuable than your money  Live close to where you work so you don’t waste your life stuck in traffic “Fifteen-minute rule”  Work at what you would do for free, but don’t tell your boss! 100127

60. 4.7 What Does the Future Hold for Our Children Now? People that we know, children and grandchildren, will suffer from increased fossil fuel prices Those that we don’t know, greatgreatgrandchildren may have it even worse; for great 7 grandchildren, worse yet ME What we do today affects future generations --- shouldn’t we care? (Is it really “All about ME!”) A surging world population will fight to get or control energy sources, leading to wars far worse than Iraq  People of developing countries will crave to live as those do in the highly over-consuming U.S. and marketeers will ensure this craving Effect of global TV influences and makes people aware of distant consumption trends; “I want to live like those people in those TV shows!” 080820

61. 5. Transportation Rowing, animal power, human power Wind, sailing ships, airplanes Wood, coal, diesel and gasoline fuels Electricity and motors 080822 This steam car was designed by Nicholas Joseph Cugnot and constructed by M. Brezin in 1769, shown bumping a wall in Paris Oops! http://www.ausbcomp.com/~bbott/cars/carhist.htm

62. 5.1 Transportation Energy Usage Petroleum fuels predominate Costs determined the development and selection of primary fuels Loss of petroleum can depress the economy for years 080820 http://www.eia.doe.gov/kids/energyfacts/uses/transportation.html

63. 5.1.1 Energy Shortages In 1973, Arabian oil countries embargoed oil shipments to the United States because we had supported Israel in the Six-Day War against Egypt  Gasoline shortages across the US led to long lines of cars at gasoline pumps, and impatient drivers assaulting each other  Prices did not really soar, but gas fill-ups were often limited to so many dollars or gallons (rationing); even-odd fill-up days  Trans-Alaska Pipeline approved in 1973 (early enviro protest claimed animals would be afraid; similarity to ANWR claims) Through many contentious issues, California had an electricity crisis that was responsible for replacing Governor Davis with a popular actor, Arnold Schwarzenegger  Blackouts get the voters’ attention faster than pleas!  Shortages or total outages are perceived very differently by the public than blackouts from equipment failures 080820

64. 5.1.2 Fuel Prices from EERE in May 2008 080815 http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/facts/2008_fotw526.html

65. 5.1.3 Constant $ Gasoline in 2005 Adjusted price has now exceeded the 2000 peak 080822 http://ncga.fhdigital.com/sitefiles/1000/gas_graph.jpg

66. 5.1.3.1 Price versus Utility? 080915

67. 5.1.4 Daily US Commuting Distance SOURCE: US Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Omnibus Household Survey. Aggregated data cover activities for the month prior to the survey. 080805 93% of commuters drive less than 35miles

68. 5.2 Clean Cities Coalition The Department of Energy (DOE) founded the Clean Cities Coalition to use alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) to reduce air pollution in city nonattainment areas AFVs don’t use conventional fuels  Biofuels, electricity, CNG, hydrogen, etc. There are US state and local chapters; the Space Coast Clean Cities Coalition covers Brevard County, Florida and six other counties 080820

69. 5.3 Alternative Fuel Vehicles AFVs don’t use gasoline, diesel, or jet fuel, the conventional fuels An early version was the 1908 Bishop electric car – Jay Leno owns and drives one In 1957, I saw propane forklift trucks inside a huge Frigidaire plant where I was a co-op student  The fumes were claimed to be “clean”  Western states have conversions of pickup trucks to start on gasoline and run on propane 080820

70. 5.3. Alternative Fuel Vehicles This 2007 Rally was from the Florida Solar Energy Center (Cocoa) to Florida Tech’s Panther Plaza in Melbourne

71. 5.3.1 Solar Challenge Rally DOE started Sunrayce rallies to mirror the World Solar Challenge Races in Australia Later, Sunrayce was renamed the American Solar Challenge, and adding Canada, it became the North American Solar Challenge In 2008, University of Michigan’s Continuum won on the Dallas to Calgary route 080820 2007, Dutch Nuna won!

72. Started at Disney Lake Buena Vista, FL Eleven day trip with overnight stops Chase van with a warning sign accompanied the car The van also read out the solar car performance data by radio link Two-way radio provided voice communications Ended at GM Tech Center, Warren, MIA 100121 1990 Sunrayce Solar Race Map by Dorian West, 1990 5.3.1.1 Florida Tech Solar Car

73. 5.3.1.1 Florida Tech at the 1990 Sunrayce This car was cosmetically restored in 2007, but is no longer operational The Sunshine Special originally required $225,000 in funding 080820

74. 5.3.1.2 Florida Tech’s Racing Electric Vehicle Racing Electric Vehicle, 10/07/2007 080806

75. 5.3.1.2 2007 Racing Electric Vehicle (REV) Formula Lightning autocross racer Touchscreen steering wheel Battery monitoring comm -- Design Objectives -- -Acceleration from 0 to 60 mph in under 5 seconds -Top speed of 85 mph -Maximum power available between 20 and 40 mph. -Lightweight (under 650 lb with driver) - 15 minute battery life running at high performance speeds

76. 5.3.2 Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles (PHEVs) PHEVs have a large battery that is charged by 120Vac utility power 15A outlet anywhere There is also a small engine-alternator that can charge the battery using a fuel like gasoline, compressed natural gas (CNG), or biofuel The engine only burns fuel if the voltage falls too low and the battery needs charging Estimated battery-only range might be 40 to 100 miles a day between nighttime charges Cleanliness depends on most local utility source 080820

77. 5.3.2.1 A Plug-in Prius Third-party kits available for changing a Prius to a PHEV (voids factory warranty?)  Charger uses 120Vac <15 amps, a standard house outlet Toyota working on a 2010 production model 100121 Photo: Motortrend

78. 5.3.3 1974-1983 Sebring Citicar Sebring Vanguard company in Florida Response to 1973 gasoline crisis met by battery car with fiberglass body 080820 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citicar

79. 5.3.4 EV1: Who Killed that Car? The GM EV1 was produced to meet California emission standards as a plug-in battery car  No hybridization or charging engine, so watch your battery voltage  Cars were primarily leased except for a dealer mistake where actual sales occurred  When California rules changed, the leased cars were recalled and smashed at a GM proving grounds in Arizona to avoid future service problems  The remaining EV1s are engineering history and displayed at shows by those few owners  See the DVD movie: “Who Killed the Electric Car?” 080820

80. 5.3.4 Electric Car plus a “Pusher” 080822

81. 5.3.5 Tesla Racer The Tesla Racer is all electric, sporty, and pricey (at first) 080820 Photo by Tesla Motors

82. 5.3.6 GM Volt --- an Electric Car 080820 Introductory GM Volt and Vice Chairman Bob Lutz Photo by Jeffrey Sauger, ©GM Corp.

83. 5.3.7 Hydrogen Cars Hydrogen-fueled cars are similar to compressed natural gas (CNG) cars Hydrogen is an energy carrier like electricity and must be made Tank pressures are ~6,000 to 10,000 psi 100127 Photo, F. Leslie, 2006 Present prototypes cost ~$1 million; fuel costs extra! This is the Progress Energy car I requested for the Sustainability Forum at Olin Life Sciences

84. 5.4 Trains Biodiesel has cleaner emissions; easy changeover Electric trains require expensive trackside or overhead conductors for direct connection Large battery cars might supply energy for the motors and could be quickly changed at stops for fully charged units Present diesels dump braking power into cab-top resistors (no batteries), but with attached battery cars, recharging is economical A hybrid version would carry engine-alternators for recharging using CNG, biodiesel, or perhaps H 2  The engine-alternators for recharging would stay in the locomotive so it could move independently from the battery car 080822 www.trainweb.org/gensets/brookville/bmex/259a.jpg

85. 5.5 Airplanes Airplanes must carry nonlead (too heavy) batteries or fuel cells sufficient to reach the next airport or use recharging engines Hydrogen high-pressure flask size may restrict the distance that can be traveled with fuel cells Hybrid aircraft might use fuel to reach altitude and then change to electric motors or fuel cells to sustain altitude at a lesser speed 100125

86. 5.6 Ships Ships are now having diesel engines converted to use natural gas An existing SkySails wind kite design can partially pull the ship to reduce fuel usage Hull drag efficiency offers a 3% cost savings Florida Tech ocean engineering students are designing a model hull with dimples like a golf ball to reduce drag about 3% (2008) 080822

87. 6. Future of Long-Term Energy Forecasts Energy needed depends upon how much energy is being used, how efficiently, and where As other countries develop large energy uses, they increase the demands, and price increases Worldwide problems can be solved locally  China coal pollution by mercury reaches the US West Coast, but US actions can only affect the total pollution Energy growth curves show high consumer demands that must be accommodated by utility planning and construction; some groups say the public must just use less, a hard sell  Enviro quote: “I won’t be happy until gasoline costs $10 to $15 per gallon!” from a Sierra Club email 100125

88. 6.1 My Energy Price Forecasts (1/2010) I predict that energy prices will be much higher in 2050, as energy becomes more costly to extract and increased antipollution costs are passed on to the consumer In some states, more nuclear plants will be placed in operation while in others, nuclear plants will be closed  These changes will be primarily politically driven Fossil fuel plants will become expensive to operate (cap- and-trade) and ratepayer prices will increase Cars will tend to be hybrids using advanced batteries and small recharging engines of perhaps 30 hp Tractors for trailers may run on natural gas from large tanks behind the cab (Picken’s Plan) Air travel will decline, with trains substituting 100127

89. 6.1 My Energy Price Forecasts (1/2010) Crude Oil  Prices become extremely volatile, destabilizing the market $147/bbl on 7/11/08, then $106 on 9/5/08; perhaps $200 by January, 2009; perhaps $100 by January, 2011? Gasoline  Prices rise to $6-10 per gallon (CPI-adjusted) within your lifetimes, and not due to taxes as in Europe! Electricity  Becomes more diverse, with growing renewables used, as fossil fuel becomes expensive beyond belief or affording  CO 2 capture increases price (51% now from coal) Public Transportation  Aircraft: Oil costs may preclude, or use of gases may require frequent landing to refuel limited capacity energy tanks  Trains: Take over some air traffic, but tracks are vulnerable to easy terrorist attack because they are accessible for miles  Trucking Industry: Expands to carry more people in posh cargo containers similar to Victorian train cars -- a specially “bus” 100125

90. 6.2 Energy Competition by Nations China and India have large populations that will want and buy more energy, driving the price up  Tata company of India selling a $2500 car The other developing nations will do the same, but with less effect at first Russia has large oil and natural gas resources to control world markets for “national power” The US President and Congress can’t set the World crude oil price, but the massive effect of the public shifting their demand will  The US competes on the world energy market 100125

91. 6.3 Future of Energy The transition of energy from conventional, fossil fuels to cleaner renewables will take decades --- natural gas will survive for years Al Gore, global warming advocate pushes for no fossil fuels in the next 8 years, but renewables, conservation, and efficiency are still developing and must change from ~4% to over 90% in a short time Electrical grid must change to carry renewable energy from resource to load centers (cities) Rechargeable vehicles are as clean as the utility source, which will shift from coal to renewables due to politics, ideology, and good practices 100125

92. 6.3.1 Future of Renewable Energy Wind power continues to grow at ~30% - 40% per year  As turbines become more widespread, the “pushback” against them fades Solar energy responds to cheaper solar modules and government subsidies Geothermal heat pumps operate more efficiently and standard heat pumps have fittings for adding a ground source/sink loop Biofuels develop at commercial levels, and engines are redesigned to accept these fuels Hydroelectric systems are added at the <30 MW size as economics win over NIMBY and “viewscape” protests 100127

93. 6.3.2 Future of Renewable Energy Ocean tidal, wave and current energy develops for coastal areas  Current energy devices provide technology for river and some stream energy extraction Distributed energy from rooftop solar water and electrical systems reduce need for transmission line installations Nuclear fission spent fuel is recycled to make additional fuel (not really a renewable) Nuclear fusion remains a 30-year technology 100127

94. Conclusions Humans must have air, water, food, and energy Fossil fuel pollution may increase “Green House Effect” believed to cause global warming Future cars likely will be plug-in hybrids running occasionally on CNG, bioethanol or biodiesel for long trips; design options based upon area Trains will replace aircraft for civilian long trips (price, convenience, and harassment factor) Renewable energy offers a long-term, sustainable approach to the World’s energy needs, but costs more  Cost decreases plus fossil fuels increase in price Economics drives the selection process and short-term (first cost) thinking leads to disregard of long-term, overall cost --- this attitude must change! 100127

95. Conclusion Increasing oil, natural gas, and coal prices will ensure that the transition to renewable energy will occur ― How will we choose to do it? 080820

96. 080710 Thank you! Questions? ? ? My website: my.fit.edu/~fleslie for presentations Roberts Hall weather and energy data: my.fit.edu/wx_fit/roberts/RH.htm DMES Meteorology Webpage: my.fit.edu/wx_fit/?q=obs/realtime/roberts

97. References: Books Boyle, Godfrey. Renewable Energy, Second Edition. Oxford, 2007 Brower, Michael. Cool Energy. Cambridge MA: The MIT Press, 1992. 0-262- 02349-0, TJ807.9.U6B76, 333.79’4’0973. Duffie, John and William A. Beckman. Solar Engineering of Thermal Processes. NY: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 920 pp., 1991 Gipe, Paul. Wind Energy for Home & Business. White River Junction, VT: Chelsea Green Pub. Co., 1993. 0-930031-64-4, TJ820.G57, 621.4’5 Patel, Mukund R. Wind and Solar Power Systems. Boca Raton: CRC Press, 1999, 351 pp. ISBN 0-8493-1605-7, TK1541.P38 1999, 621.31’2136 Sørensen, Bent. Renewable Energy, Second Edition. San Diego: Academic Press, 2000, 911 pp. ISBN 0-12-656152-4. Aubrecht, Gordon J. Energy, Second Edition. NJ: Upper Saddle River, Prentice-Hall, Inc., 668 pp., 1995. 0-02-304601-5. TJ163.2.A88. 100127

98. References: Websites, etc. http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/solar.renewables/page/trends/highlight1.htm l awea-windnet@yahoogroups.com. Wind Energy elist awea-wind-home@yahoogroups.com. Wind energy home powersite elist geothermal.marin.org/ on geothermal energy mailto:energyresources@egroups.com rredc.nrel.gov/wind/pubs/atlas/maps/chap2/2-01m.html PNNL wind energy map of CONUS windenergyexperimenter@yahoogroups.com. Elist for wind energy experimenters www.dieoff.org. Site devoted to the decline of energy and effects upon population www.ferc.gov/ Federal Energy Regulatory Commission www.hawaii.gov/dbedt/ert/otec_hi.html#anchor349152 on OTEC systems telosnet.com/wind/20th.html www.google.com/search?q=%22renewable+energy+course%22 solstice.crest.org/ dataweb.usbr.gov/html/powerplant_selection.html http://cr.middlebury.edu/es/altenergylife/70's.htm http://www.barcelonaenergia.com/eng/observatory/bcnenergy3.htm 080811 …\RECallWebsite\.. \.ClassPPT\RE27Future of Energy [was FutureTrends]