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Why People vote Group factors and Issues
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Clearly Stated Learning Objectives Examine the 2008 Election in the broader context of American electoral history Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2008 Election.
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REGION It is not what it used to be
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The Solid South A key component of the Roosevelt coalition – 11 states of the Confederacy Provided 52% of necessary votes for Wilson in 1916 47% of the necessary votes for victory in 1932 31% of Kennedy’s vote in 1960 43.7% for Jimmy Carter in 1976 – Crucial for Opportunity Costs for Democratic Candidates
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Why the South Used to be more important Shared the characteristics of an important group – Large – Reliable The GOP Southern Strategy changes this
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The Shift in the South 56.6% of Bush’s necessary votes in 2008 – The GOP needs it, the Dems can win without it Only 1 Non-southern Democratic Candidate from 1948-2008 won election Obama Mobilizes African American Voters in large states (FL, NC, VA)
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Why Region is not as Important Mobility National exposure of the Media Region is an intervening variable, as primary factors really push vote
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Region in 2008
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Cities and Suburbs Urban areas and Rural Areas America is becoming less rural Obama dominates cities, and wins the burbs
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Where We live
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Gender and Marriage The Gender Gap Why?
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Gender in 2008
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Marriage Married People vote Republican Singles vote Democratic
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Marital Status
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Decline of Security Moms
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Issue voting in 2008 Only 1 issue really mattered
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Issue voting Can be very difficult Candidates try to avoid taking issue stands Economic issues are easy to vote upon
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Most Important Issues
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The Economy The events of 9/14
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Economics Retrospective voting Prospective voting
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Economics
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Retrospective voting on Bush Bush is Unpopular
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McCain Vs. Bush In the best position of any Republican to run against Bush In reality no way to distance himself from Bush
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The Third Term
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The War in Iraq No longer the salient Issue of the election Good news from Iraq did not change people’s minds Obama could claim opposition from day 1
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Iraq
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Health Care Not as important as you might think (9% most important problem) People are worried, but don’t specify policy
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Energy Policy One of the reasons McCain goes with Palin Never panned out as an issue Cheap oil throughout the fall
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Drilling
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Terrorism The only Issue where McCain beats Obama The problem for McCain is that no one cared
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Terrorism
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Immigration No One cared Neither candidate had anything to gain by raising the issue
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