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SEDS Transportation Sector Modules Anant Vyas and Deena Patel Argonne National Laboratory Presented at SEDS Peer Review Washington, DC May 7-8, 2009.

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Presentation on theme: "SEDS Transportation Sector Modules Anant Vyas and Deena Patel Argonne National Laboratory Presented at SEDS Peer Review Washington, DC May 7-8, 2009."— Presentation transcript:

1 SEDS Transportation Sector Modules Anant Vyas and Deena Patel Argonne National Laboratory Presented at SEDS Peer Review Washington, DC May 7-8, 2009

2 Transportation Sector in Context of SEDS Macroeconomics Biomass Coal Natural Gas Oil Biofuels Electricity Hydrogen Liquid Fuels Buildings Heavy Transportation Industry Light Vehicles Macroeconomics Converted Energy Primary Energy End-Use 2

3 Major Transportation Components Light Duty Vehicles  Cars*  Light Trucks* Heavy Duty Transportation  Highway (Trucks and Buses)*  Aviation  Pipeline  Rail  Water  Farm & Off-highway * Only cars, light trucks, and medium & heavy trucks are evaluated through the Portfolio Decision Support (PDS) 3

4 Light Duty Data Flow Macroeconomics GDP, Population 16-84 Liquid Fuels Light Duty Vehicles Hydrogen Natural Gas Natural Gas Price Hydrogen Price Gasoline, Diesel and Ethanol Prices Electricity Electricity Price Liquid Fuels Macroeconomics Vehicle Expenditures Hydrogen Demand Flex-fuel Demand Electricity Demand Gasoline & Diesel Demand CO2 Produced Bio-Fuels Hydrogen Natural Gas Electricity LPG/CNG Demand Incoming DataOutgoing Data 4

5 Major Assumptions for Light Duty Vehicles National estimates (no regional estimates) Annual vehicle miles and fuel use estimated Vehicle choice model adapted from EERE/OVT Multi-Path Study EPA dynamometer test fuel economy estimates degraded by a factor of 0.8 for ICE vehicles and 0.85 for HEV and FCV (can be revised to match the new 5-cycle method) Energy use by flexible-fuel vehicles estimated for the Liquid Fuels Module to separate as ethanol blended gasoline and E85 5

6 Major Components of Light Duty Sector Vehicle Technologies 1.Conventional 2.Conventional Diesel 3.Advanced Diesel 4.Flex-fuel 5.CNG/LPG 6.Electric 7.Charge-Sustaining (CS) HEV 8.Flex-fuel CS HEV 9.Diesel CS HEV 10.Gasoline Plug-in HEV 11.Flex-fuel PHEV 12.Diesel PHEV 13.Hydrogen Fuel Cell PHEV 14.Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles Vehicle Choice: Based on a two- stage multi-nomial logit model Vehicle Survival Age-Dependent Usage ICE 6 EV/ HEV FCV

7 Decision Flow In Light Duty Module Future Car and Light Truck Sales Vehicle Characteristics by Technology Vehicle Choice Model Macroeconomic Data Fuel Price Future Light Duty Vehicle Sales Car and Light Truck Sales Shares by Technology Future Car and Light Truck Sales by Technology Historical Car and Light Truck Sales by Technology Vehicle Survival and Age Dependent Usage Car and Light Truck VMT, Fuel Use by Fuel Type and CO 2 Emissions 7

8 Light Duty Data Sources Vehicle survival and annual usage functions from NHTSA/NCSA report Vehicle Survivability and Travel Mileage Schedules (2006) Vehicle price and MPG from AEO 2008 and PDS 2010 Other Vehicle Characteristics adapted from DOE/EERE Multi-path Study Historical vehicle sales from AAMA and Ward’s Motor Vehicle Facts & Figures (various editions) 8

9 Heavy Duty Transportation Data Flow Macroeconomics GDP, Population, Income Liquid Fuels Heavy Duty Transportation Natural Gas Natural Gas Demand Gasoline, Diesel and Crude Prices Petroleum Products Demand Liquid Fuels Macroeconomics Truck Sales Electricity Demand Gasoline, Diesel, Jet Fuel and Residual Fuel Demand CO2 Produced Bio-Fuels Natural Gas Electricity Natural Gas Demand Incoming Data Outgoing Data Coal Coal Demand 9

10 Heavy Duty Transportation Modes and Fuels Medium and Heavy Trucks* Gasoline (ethanol blend), LPG/CNG, and Diesel (bio-fuel blend) Buses Gasoline (ethanol blend), CNG, Diesel (bio-fuel blend), and Electricity Domestic, International, and General Aviation Jet Fuel (can be bio-fuel blend) and Aviation gasoline Pipelines Natural Gas and Electricity Rail Diesel and Electricity Water Gasoline, Diesel, and Residual Fuel Farm & Off- Highway Gasoline (ethanol blend) and Diesel (bio- fuel blend) * Only medium and heavy trucks are evaluated through the Portfolio Decision Support 10

11 Major Assumptions for Heavy Transportation National and annual estimates developed Medium and heavy trucks will continue to use gasoline and diesel fuel Medium and heavy truck VMT will be sensitive to fuel cost per mile Buses will rely increasingly on diesel fuel Aviation will continue to improve its energy intensity (Btu/RPM), but the rate of improvement will decline over time Rail will improve ton-miles hauled per diesel gallon at a rate slower than the historical 11

12 Heavy Transportation Energy Use Estimation Macroeconomic Data Medium & Heavy Truck Sales Truck Survival and Age Dependent Usage Truck VMT and Fuel Use Macroeconomic Data & Crude Cost Domestic and International RPM Domestic and International BTU/RPM Domestic and International Jet Fuel Demand General Aviation Jet Fuel and Aviation Gasoline Demand Medium & Heavy Trucks Aviation Coal DemandRail Ton-Miles Rail Diesel Demand Rail TMT per Diesel Gallon Rail 12

13 Heavy Duty Energy Demand Estimation 13 Natural Gas Demand Pipeline Natural Gas Demand Pipeline Petroleum Products and Crude Demand Pipeline Electricity Demand Coal and Distillate Fuel Demand Water Diesel and Residual Fuel Demand Water Crude Cost Macroeconomic Data Farm & Off- highway gasoline and Diesel Demand Farm & Off-highway Crude Cost

14 Heavy Transportation Data Sources Truck sales from AAMA and Ward’s Motor Vehicle Facts & Figures Truck survival rates from ORNL’s Transportation Energy Data Book Truck age dependent annual usage from Census Bureau’s Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey Energy consumption by mode and fuel type from Oak Ridge National Lab’s Transportation Energy Data Book Aviation data from U.S. DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics and Federal Aviation Administration Rail ton-miles and fuel use from AAR’s Railroad Facts Farm & off-highway diesel use from DOE/EIA 14

15 SEDS (Deterministic) and AEO 08 Projections 15

16 Light Duty Energy Demand Reference Scenario 16

17 Light Duty Energy Demand High Oil Scenario – Change from Reference Scenario 17

18 Light Duty Vehicles VMT and MPG 18

19 Heavy Duty Energy Demand Reference Scenario 19

20 Heavy Duty Energy Demand High Oil Scenario – Change from Reference Scenario 20

21 Future Work Complete stochastic versions of both transportation modules  Incorporate stochastic distributions of light vehicle prices and fuel economies  Incorporate stochastic distribution of medium and heavy truck fuel economies  Incorporate stochastic distributions of aviation and rail energy intensities Investigate and update long-term VMT elasticity for light duty vehicles and medium & heavy trucks Make light truck share of new LDV sales sensitive to fuel price 21

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