1. Decision Support Tools for 1) Investigating Trends in the US Vehicle Fleet 2) Nuclear Power Plant Shutdown CEDM Annual Meeting Paul Fischbeck EPP and SDS Carnegie Mellon University 17 May 2011 1

2. Fleet Trends Project Course Undergraduate, semester-long, capstone course – 23 undergrads Social and Decision Sciences (SDS) Engineering and Public Policy (EPP) – 2 graduate student managers Mohd Nor Azman Hassad Thomas Yu – 2 faculty Iris Grossmann Paul Fischbeck 2

3. Trade-offs Fuel economy and … – Performance – Safety – Practicality – Life cycle costs How have these metrics changed over time? – Airbags make lighter more fuel efficient vehicles safer, right? 3

4. Databases Ward’s Automotive (1990-2010) –National new car sales by make and model for each year Hedges & Company (2010) –State-level car population by make, model, and model year Kelley Blue Book (1990-2010) –List and used car prices –Detailed specifications by make, model, and year FARS (Fatality Analysis Reporting System) –Fatalities from automobile crashes –NHTSA NHTS/NPTS (National Household Travel Survey) (1995,2001,2009) –DOT Federal Highway Administration 5-Star Safety Rating –NHTSA Safety ratings for cars Others –US Census, EIA (fuel prices, power mix) 4

5. Interface to the Integrated Database 5 By combining metrics and filters, over 1,200 different graphs possible

6. Life-Cycle Analysis o Inventory Analysis  Considers the individual inputs (energy, materials) and outputs of the product at each stage  Stages: material production, product manufacture, assembly, distribution, use, disposal  Variables to track: energy, emissions, costs o Impact Analysis  Combines environmental impacts into one total impact number o Improvement Analysis  Determine how to reduce the environmental impact of the product 6

7. GREET Model Argonnes National Laboratory Calculates the life-cycle energy use and emissions for vehicle production o MPG (KBB) o Lifetime miles driven (NHTS/NPTS) o Vehicle type- SUV, passenger cars (KBB) o Year (KBB) o Weight (KBB) o Country of assembly (KBB) Separate GREET model run for each of the 6,000 make/model/year vehicles in the Ward’s Automotive database 7

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12. 1990 2005 12

13. Emissions Trends by List Price 13

14. Emissions Trends by List Price 14

15. Emissions Trends by List Price 15

16. Emissions Trends by List Price 16

17. Emission Trends by Vehicle Type 17

18. Emission Trends by Vehicle Type 18

19. Emission Trends by Vehicle Type 19

20. Emission Trends by Vehicle Type 20

21. Comparison: Weight of Vehicles (Year – 2000) In 73% of crashes, vehicles with no fatalities weighted more In 27% of crashes, vehicles with fatalities weighted more 21

22. Weight – Safety Tradeoff Heavier vehicles (safety rating 5) have less probability of fatality compared to lighter vehicles of the same safety rating At equal weight, 3% benefit to safer vehicle 22

23. Shutting Down Nuclear Power Plants Since Fukushima, there has been discussion of the risks imposed by nuclear power plants Question: Given various decision rules, what would be the impact on environmental and economic metrics – Natural risks (earthquakes, hurricanes, tornados – Plant characteristics (individual, age, manufacturer) – Characteristics of surrounding region (population, political support) Joint work with David Rode from DAI and Thomas Yu (EPP Masters 2011) 23

24. Reasons for Curtailing Operations 24 Earthquake and Nuclear Power Plants Tornado Alley

25. Method All power generation facilities for each NERC region were modeled (total over 16,000 plants) – Historical capacity factor – Emissions rates – Variable costs (sorted) Nuclear plants were turned off based on decision criteria Lost production made up by increasing the output of plants with extra capacity in order of marginal cost – NERC forced outage rates for coal and gas Average cost of generation calculated (does not include T&D) – Infinitely elastic (no pipeline capacity limits) – For some scenarios, increase demand would send NG prices very high Additional NOx, SO2, and CO2 emissions tracked Additional coal and natural gas consumption determined – Pipeline capacity would be reached for some regions well before demand is met 25

26. Interface 26

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29. Emissions Trends by Country 29

30. Emissions Trends by Country 30

31. Emissions Trends by Country 31

32. Emissions Trends by Country 32

33. Emissions Trends by Country 33

34. Trends in Emissions by MPG Category 34

35. Trends in Emissions by MPG Category 35

36. Trends in Emissions by MPG Category 36

37. Trends in Emissions by MPG Category 37

38. Trends in Emissions by MPG Category 38

39. Trends in Emissions by MPG Category 39

40. Trends in Emissions by MPG Category 40