1. “Rogue Valley Climate Trends & Projections” League of Women Voters; March 2015 http://socan.info alanjournet@gmail.com 541-301-4107 Presentation (as ppt or pdf) on web site: click ‘http://socan.info/previous-presentations-handouts/’ http://socan.info alanjournet@gmail.com

3. Shasta Lake, Summer 2014 http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/08/22/1323804/-California-drought-63-trillion-gallons- of-groundwater-lost-and-the-surface-of-the-Earth-is-rising?detail=email CA: water calendar year ended Sept 30th - third driest year on record http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/03/california-drought-fourth- year_n_5928818.html?ir=Green&utm_campaign=100414&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Alert-green&utm_content=Title

4. Oroville Lake, Summer 2011 2014 2011 2014 20112014 http://imgur.com/a/IgoUq Fourth consecutive year of drought http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/03/california-drought-fourth- year_n_5928818.html?ir=Green&utm_campaign=100414&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Alert-green&utm_content=Title

5. Hart Lake, Oregon - Historical http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hart_Lake_(Oreg on)#mediaviewer/File:Northern_Hart_Lake_(L ake_County,_Oregon_scenic_images)_(lakDA0 090).jpg http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warner_Lakes

6. Hart Lake, Oregon: Summer 2014 Alan Journet

7. From Interstate 5 – Saturday July 27 th Wolf Creek Area North of Grants Pass Medford Mail Tribune – Glendale Fire July 29 th This could be worst fire season in 10 years Wildfire July 26 th 2013 Thunderstorms

8. August 7 th 2013

9. http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?OR March 3 rd 2015

10. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/akq/brief/longrange.php#extend 90 Temperature Outlook 90 Precipitation Outlook

13. THE MESSAGES 1) Climate change consequences are here and now 2) Projections are mainly continuations of current trends For those who plan to nap through my presentation….

14. Historic Trends are based on DATA The Future is Based on Projections:

15. Medford Average Temperature History US National Weather Service, NOAA - Medford 2014 Ave 58.9

16. Rogue Basin Temperature History and Projections 1961-1990 Ave – 50.03 0 F Summer Ave – 63.58 0 F Winter Ave – 38.17 0 F Business As Usual

17. Projected Increases 2035-2045 Average 1.6 – 4 ⁰ F (51.6 – 53.8 ⁰ F) Winter 1 – 3.5 ⁰ F (39.1 – 41.7 ⁰ F) Summer 1 – 6 ⁰ F (64.4 – 69.5 ⁰ F) August 1 – 7.5 ⁰ F (67.1 – 73.5 ⁰ F) 2075-2085 Average 4.3 – 8.2 ⁰ F (54.3 – 58.2 ⁰ F) Winter 3.4 – 6.3 ⁰ F (41.5 – 44.5 ⁰ F) Summer 5.5 – 11.8 ⁰ F (69.1 – 75.4 ⁰ F) August 6.7 – 16.8 ⁰ F (72.7 – 82.8 ⁰ F)

18. http://www.usgs.gov/climate_landuse/clu_rd/apps/nccv_viewer.asp

19. > 8.0 ⁰ F > 4.0 ⁰ F > 8.0 ⁰ F > 4.0 ⁰ F

20. http://www.usgs.gov/climate_landuse/clu_rd/apps/nccv_viewer.asp > 8.0 ⁰ F > 4.0 ⁰ F

21. http://www.usgs.gov/climate_landuse/clu_rd/apps/nccv_viewer.asp > 8.0 ⁰ F > 4. 0 ⁰ F

22. US National Weather Service, NOAA - Medford Medford 100 Degree Days History EXTREMES ARE ALSO IMPORTANT

23. Heat Waves: Number of Days > 100 o F Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.

24. Historic Precipitation Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S. National increase of 5% Substantial Regional Difference

25. Medford Annual Precipitation - Inches Historic US National Weather Service, NOAA - Medford

26. http://www.usgs.gov/climate_landuse/clu_rd/apps/nccv_viewer.asp

27. 46 http://www.globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment Projected Precipitation Seasonal Pattern – High Emissions Scenarios = ‘Business As Usual’

28. 1958 – 2007 Historic Heavy Downpours (Heaviest 1% of all events): % Increase in Freq. Heavy Events Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S. More events featuring heavy downpours

29. 1958 – 2007 Historic Increase in Amount of pptn falling in Heavy Downpours Pattern – Heaviest 1% as Amount in Heavy Events Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S. More precipitation in the heavier downpours

30. Projected Patterns in Light, Moderate & Heavy Precipitatio n Events by 2090s Reduced Light Drizzle Days Increased Heavy Downpour Days Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.

32. Mid-Elevation Snowfall Crater Lake 7,000 – 8,000 ft N. California 1950 - 2000 Below 7500’ 13% decline Above 7500’ 12% increase

33. http://downloads.globalchange.gov/usimpacts/pdfs/climate-impacts-report.pdf Declining snowpack leads to reduced water supply in our ‘natural’ reservoirs. Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S. Red = decreasing snow water Blue = increasing snow water

34. Spring Snowmelt Dates - Critical in West Longitude Latitude Impact on streams – both peak timing and flow rate Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.

35. Projected Stream Flow Timing in Western States Historic Stream Flow Timing in Western States

36. Projected PNW Run-off Timing Run-off peak  earlier & lower Late summer run-off  lower Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S. Warming & Loss of Snowpack

37. 2006-20352036-20652066-2095 http://globalchange.mit.edu/files/document/MITJPSPGC_Reprint_2010-14.pdf Palmer Drought Severity Index with Projections Green: Decreasing Drought  7 months fewer per 30 years Yellow- Red: Increasing Drought  over 60 months more per 30 yrs – Business as usual

39. http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/RegionalDroughtMonitor.aspx?west U.S. Population affected by this drought: 52,257,282 70.05% of U.S. is D0 – D4 or above Over 6 months March 3 rd 2015

40. The Short-term Future http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/sdo_summary.html

41. 0.5 ⁰ C is the difference between a high fire year and a low fire year. (http://news.discovery.com/earth/climate- change-yellowstone-fires.html )http://news.discovery.com/earth/climate- change-yellowstone-fires.html Forest studies tell us wildfire frequency is high when annual average temperature is high and when snowmelt arrives early. Western Wildfires & Climate Change Exactly the historic trends and projections discussed

42. Jet Stream and the Arctic Oscillation Polar Air Pressure Low - air rising Polar Air Pressure High - air falling http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/unusually-cold-spring-in-europe-and-the-southeast-us-due-to-the-arct

43. Climate Change (Chaos) and the Jet Stream http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2012/03/07/climate-change-may- be-affecting-the-jet-stream/ COLD WARM COLD WARM

44. http://www.arborday.org/media/map_change.cfm Changing U.S Growth Cold Hardiness Zones (Arbor Day Foundation) Climate is shifting – gardeners may adjust but soils and biomes cannot. The map is based on the average annual minimum winter temperature. Zone 8a 10 – 15 ⁰ F

45. A Local Example

46. http://www.sou.edu/envirostudies/gjones_docs/GJones%20Climate%20Change%20Geoscience %20Canada.pdf Historical Apr – Oct Average 1961-1990 Projected Range for 2035 - 2045 Projected Range for 2075 - 2085

47. 2014 Global Temperatures 1880 – 2014 cf 1951-1980 http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.A2.gif 0 0.36 -0.36 0.72 -0.72 1.08 ⁰F⁰F

48. http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WGIAR5_WGI-12Doc2b_FinalDraft_Chapter12.pdf Future Temperature Range (Beyond 2100) 3.6 ⁰ F 7.2 ⁰ F 10.8 ⁰ F 14.4 ⁰ F 18.0 ⁰ F 21.6 ⁰ F

49. Managing the Unavoidable (Adaptation) Managing ourselves and our environment in ways that minimize the threats posed; Preparing ourselves and natural systems to withstand climate changes that are unavoidable and which we cannot minimize. Bierbaum, R and J. Holdren, JP, MacCracken, M, Moss RH, Raven PH. 2007 Confronting climate change: Avoiding the unmanageable and managing the unavoidable. http://www.sigmaxi.org/about/news/UNSEGonline.pdfhttp://www.sigmaxi.org/about/news/UNSEGonline.pdf But this is not enough….. Avoiding the Unmanageable (Mitigation) Reducing the release of greenhouse gases into our atmosphere.

50. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas B UT 30 X CO 2 296 X CO 2 Approximately 75%> 75% The Problem? Greenhouse gases released by human activity: Carbon dioxide, methane, oxides of nitrogen.

51. Rogue Valley: Use of These Fuels Private cars/trucks Public Transit Local Freight Transportation 32% Energy 24% Materials = Stuff 44% Energy to make stuff Energy to transport stuff here Fossil Fuels for energy production Energy used in our homes & local businesses Natural gas for heating Clothes, shoes, ‘phones, TVs

52. Our Future: Do The Math! http://www.informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/how-many-gigatons-of-co2 / There IS Urgency!! http://www.earth-syst-sci-data-discuss.net/7/521/2014/essdd-7-521-2014.pdf

53. We Have Choices! Individually & Collectively Money inflows & outflows Back in the Day… Now…. Energy Accounting GHG CO 2 Carbon Accounting Hopium

54. http://socan.info Co-Facilitators: Alan Journet alanjournet@gmail.comalanjournet@gmail.com Kathy Conway kathleendconway@gmail.comkathleendconway@gmail.com MEETINGS: (Last Tuesday) Special Topic Presentation 6:00 pm – 6:30pm General Meeting 6:30 – 7:30 pm What We Can Do: Political Action Activities: http://socan.info/state-political-action/ Medford Pubic Library, 205 S. Central Ave.http://socan.info/state-political-action/

55. Questions? Any comments or questions ????