1. Disease Ecology Today we will discuss:
History and Overview of Emerging Infectious Diseases
How are human exposures to disease affected by ecosystem attributes?
Lyme disease
How does climate change influence the prevalence and severity of certain diseases?
Cholera
Evolution of pathogens to antibiotic resistance

3. Major Factors Contributing to Emerging Infections: 1992
1. Human demographics and behavior
2. Technology and Industry
Economic development and land use
4. International travel and commerce
5. Microbial adaptation and change
6. Breakdown of public health measures
Institute of Medicine Report, 1992

4. More Factors Contributing to Emerging Infections: 2003
7. Human vulnerability
Climate and weather
Changing ecosystems
Poverty and social inequality
War and famine
Lack of political will
Intent to harm
Institute of Medicine Report, 2003

5. Emerging Infections: Human Demographics, Behavior, Vulnerability
More people, more crowding
Changing sexual mores (HIV, STDs)
Injection drug use (HIV, Hepatitis C)
Changing eating habits: out more, more produce (foodborne infections)
More populations with weakened immune system: elderly, HIV/AIDS, cancer patients and survivors, persons taking antibiotics and other drugs

6. Emerging Infections: Technology and Industry
Mass food production (Campylobacter, E.coli O157:H7, etc…)
Use of antibiotics in food animals (antibiotic-resistant bacteria)
More organ transplants and blood transfusions (Hepatitis C, WNV,…)
New drugs for humans (prolonging immunosuppression)

8. Organ Transplantation Year-end Waiting Lists vs
Organ Transplantation Year-end Waiting Lists vs. Transplanted (kidney, liver, pancreas, heart, lung)
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
Source: UNOS
CDC

9. Emerging Infections: Economic Development, Land Use, Changing Ecosystems
Changing ecology influencing waterborne, vectorborne disease transmission (e.g. dams, deforestation)
Contamination of watershed areas by cattle (Cryptosporidium)
More exposure to wild animals and vectors (Lyme disease, erhlichiosis, babesiosis, HPS,…)

10. Emerging Infections: International Travel and Commerce
Persons infected with an exotic disease anywhere in the world can be into major US city within hours (SARS, VHF,…)
Foods from other countries imported routinely into US (Cyclospora,….)
Vectors hitchhiking on imported products (Asian tiger mosquitoes on lucky bamboos,….)

11. Emerging Infections: Microbial Adaptation and Change
Increased antibiotic resistance with increased use of antibiotics in humans and food animals (VRE, VRSA, penicillin- and macrolide-resistant Strep pneumonia, multidrug-resistant Salmonella,….)
Increase virulence (Group A Strep?)
Jumping species from animals to humans (avian influenza, HIV?, SARS?)

12. Emerging Infections: Poverty, Social Inequality, Breakdown of Public Health Measures
Lack of basic hygienic infrastructure (safe water, safe foods, etc..)
Inadequate vaccinations (measles, diphtheria)
Discontinued mosquito control efforts (dengue, malaria)
Lack of monitoring and reporting (SARS)

13. Emerging Infections: Intent to Harm
Bioterrorism: Anthrax in US 2001
Bio-Crimes: Salmonella in OR, Shigella in TX.
Potential agents: Smallpox, Botulism toxin, Plague, Tularemia, ….

14. Infectious Disease Ecology
Epidemiology: the study of the causes of diseases and injuries to humans
−What causes disease?
−How do you identify the causes?
−Mechanistic
Disease ecology: the study of causes of emerging diseases to natural populations and communities;
- Spatio-temporal patterns of diseases
−Why do the patterns of disease occur as they do?
−Conceptual: what variables are important?

15. Types of Infectious Human Diseases
Infectious Disease – illness caused by a pathogenic microbe (bacteria, virus, fungi, parasite, prions (aberrant protein))
Emerging Infectious Disease (EID) – “New, reemerging or drug-resistant infections whose incidence in humans has increased within the past two decades or whose incidence threatens to increase in the near future.” IOM 1992
Zoonotic Disease
Vector-borne Disease
Non vector-borne

16. Zoonotic Disease
Definition –disease caused by a pathogen that primarily resides in a second species and is transmitted to humans without an intermediary species
Examples: rabies, H1N1, many others

17. Vector-Borne Disease
Definition -Infectious agents transmitted to humans through action of another species (often arthropods)
Examples: Lyme disease, bubonic plague, WNV, malaria, Rabies, many others
Also non vector-borne diseases (e.g. Cholera, influenza, HIV-AIDS

18. Diseases can have 3 stages:
Endemic -number of cases maintained in the human population (i.e. each infected person transmits disease to only one other person)
Epidemic – excessive rise in number of new cases of infectious disease (i.e. each infected person transmits disease to more than one other person)
Pandemic – spread of infectious disease over a large area (global)

19. Emerging infectious diseases
• Usually zoonotic
• Appear in areas undergoing ecological
transformation
• Result from adaptation to new hosts OR
• Reemerge as a result of antimicrobial resistance
• Increased in the past 2 decades

20. # EIDs by a) pathogen type, b) transmission type, c) drug resistance, d) transmission mode

21. EID hotspots -the human factor
# EID events – – – –11
EID events from 1940 to 2004 Nature, 2008

22. Risks of Different Types of EIDs
Zoonotic (wildlife)
Zoonotic (non-wildlife)
Drug-resistant pathogens
Vector-borne pathogens

23. Trends in EIDs 2008 study published in Nature
EID events have risen significantly over time
peak incidence in the 1980s (HIV pandemic).
60.3% EID events are zoonotic (which include vector-borne diseases in this study)
71.8% zoonotic diseases originate in wildlife (for example, severe acute respiratory virus, Ebola virus), and are increasing significantly over time.
54.3% EID events caused by bacteria or rickettsia (bacteria that only grow inside living cells), reflecting a large number of drug-resistant microbes
EID origins are significantly correlated with socio-economic, environmental and ecological factors (SEE MAP)

24. Lyme Disease Vector-borne disease
Lyme disease is caused by a spiral-shaped bacterium, Borrelia burgdorferi
Bacterium is carried by the black-legged tick
These ticks move about on mammal hosts such as deer and mice
environmental factors that affect these non-human hosts have implications for human exposure to Lyme disease
Lyme disease is very serious in the northeast U.S.; if untreated it leads to severe joint and nervous system problems

26. Lyme Disease Transmission
The Lyme disease bacterium, Borrelia burgdorferi, normally lives on mice, squirrels and other small animals.
Transmitted among animals – and to humans – through bites of certain species of ticks.
In the northeastern and north-central US, the black-legged tick (or deer tick, Ixodes scapularis) transmits Lyme disease.
In the Pacific US, spread by the western black-legged tick (Ixodes pacificus).
Other major tick species in US have not been shown to transmit Borrelia burgdorferi.

27. Life cycle of blacklegged ticks
Live for 2 years
3 feeding stages: larvae, nymph, adult.
Tick eggs are laid in the spring and hatch as larvae in the summer.
Larvae feed on mice, birds, and other small animals in the summer/fall.
When a young tick feeds on an infected animal, the tick takes bacteria into its body along with the blood meal, and it remains infected for the rest of its life.
After 1st feeding, the larvae become inactive as they grow into nymphs.

28. In spring, nymphs seek blood meals to grow into adults
In spring, nymphs seek blood meals to grow into adults. When nymph feeds, it can transmit bacterium to a new host (animal or a human).
Most human illness occurs in late spring and summer when nymphs are most active and human outdoor activity is greatest.
Adult ticks feed on large animals or humans.
In spring, adult female ticks lay eggs on the ground.
Deer do not become infected by adult ticks, but deer are important in transporting ticks and maintaining tick populations.

29. Acorns and Lyme Disease: An Ecological Chain Reaction

30. Acorns and Lyme Disease: An Ecological Chain Reaction
Oaks periodically produce large acorn crops, followed by a few years of poor acorn production. This phenomenon is called masting.
Acorns are a high quality food for many vertebrate consumers
Masting results in a flush of resources available to wildlife every 2-5 years
Acorn production sets off a chain reaction that affects the populations of gypsy moths (an introduced forest pest that defoliates forests), and black-legged ticks (vector of Lyme disease)

33. In mast years, white-tailed deer specialize on acorns and are attracted to oak-dominated forests.
Autumn is also the peak activity period for the adult stage of the black-legged tick.
Deer are the preferred host for adult ticks;
In oak forests, adult ticks take their final blood meal, drop off the deer, and lay eggs (hatch the following summer).
The density of larval ticks hatching from eggs in summer is highly predictable based on acorn availability the prior autumn. However, these ticks hatch from eggs free of Lyme-disease;
Larval ticks that feed on white-footed mice are much more likely to acquire the Lyme-disease spirochete than are ticks that feed on a variety of other vertebrate hosts.
Therefore, the white-footed mouse is considered the principal natural reservoir for Lyme disease.

34. High acorn densities (in mast years) increases the number of white-footed mice and white-tailed deer in oak forests
Mice harbor the Lyme disease bacterium. More mice= more Lyme disease
Lyme disease infection is higher in summers following oak mast years (high acorn productions)
Acorn biomass could be used to predict Lyme disease risk.
Mice eat gypsy moth larvae. More mice = fewer/less severe gypsy moth outbreaks.
Jones et al. (1998), Science

35. Zoonotic Diseases

36. Cholera Vibrio cholerae
Gram negative bacteria abundant in freshwater and estuaries around the world
waterborne and attach to crustacean zooplankton
Toxin alters sodium pump in intestinal cells  fluid loss
gastrointestinal disease
climatic and environmental factors that affect water sources and ecology of aquatic food webs influence the dynamics of cholera

37. Copepod Carrying Vibrio cholerae

38. First Cholera Pandemic
Endemic to areas north of Bay of Bengal (Bangladesh and eastern India)

39. Cholera The Disease Enters from water or food
Colonizes small intestine
Symptoms: nausea, diarrhea, muscle cramps, shock, severe dehydration
Treatment
Rehydration therapy, antibiotics
Prevention
Water treatment
Filtration
chlorination

40. World Cholera

41. Why Has Cholera Re-emerged?
Deteriorating sanitary facilities as larger population moves into shanty towns
Trujullo, Peru – fear of cancer from chlorination so water untreated
Use of wastewater on crops
Africa – civil wars and drought caused migrations into camps

42. How Has Cholera Re-emerged?
Simultaneous appearance along whole coast of Peru
Traveled in ship ballast?
Traveled in plankton from Asia?
Can remain dormant in local zooplankton (copepods) until triggered by ???

44. Cholera and El Niño
Periodic warming of water near coast of Central and South America
Large plankton blooms, especially in coastal waters with nutrients from sewage runoff

45. Cholera and El Niño
Cholera in Bangladesh also seen to fluctuate with El Niño, but with 11 month lag
Rita Colwell and multinational group studying link between climate and cholera
Satellite and surface data used to show cholera incidence is related to sea surface temperature

46. Cholera and Sea Surface Temperature

47. Cholera Antibiotic Resistance
Cholera is becoming resistant to several antibiotics

48. Will migratory birds continue to follow traditional flyways as the climate changes, or will they adapt and perhaps in the process transport avian influenza to new locations?
Graphic: UN Food and Agriculture Organization.

49. Malaria and Climate Vector-borne life-threatening, caused by 4 species
of Plasmodium parasites
transmitted to people through the bites of infected mosquitoes.
A child dies of malaria every 30 seconds.
247 million cases of malaria in 2006, 1 million deaths, mostly among African children.
Malaria is preventable and curable.
Approximately half of the world's population is at risk of malaria, particularly those living in lower-income countries.
Travelers from malaria-free areas to disease "hot spots" are especially vulnerable to the disease.
Malaria takes an economic toll - cutting economic growth rates by as much as 1.3% in countries with high disease rates.

50. Factors that Increase Malaria Transmission
rainfall
floods
proximity of mosquito breeding sites to people
types of mosquito species in the area
Introduction of mosquito-borne parasite into areas where people have had little prior contact/immunity (causes large and devastating epidemics)
mass population movements driven by conflict

51. Symptoms and Treatment
fever, headache, chills, vomiting (10-15 days after infected). Can cause severe illness and is often fatal without prompt treatment.
DRUG TREATMENT/RESISTANCE:
combination of drugs known as ACTs
However, the growing resistance of parasite to these meds is undermining malaria control
VECTOR CONTROL:
increasing mosquito resistance to key insecticides DDT and pyrethroids, particularly in Africa;
a lack of alternative, effective insecticides;
changing behaviours of local malaria-bearing mosquitoes, which can result from vector control efforts (as insects move to more hospitable areas).

53. Net Reproductive Ratio (R0)

54. Net Reproductive Ratio (R0)
R0 < 1, each ‘infection generation’ is SMALLER than the last
R0 = 1, each ‘infection generation’ is the same size as the last
R0 > 1, each ‘infection generation’ is LARGER than the last; what happens eventually?

55. Some Estimated Values of R0

56. R0
What happens to R0 when
disease results in immediate death to infected individuals?
vaccination programs are adopted?
Population density increases?
People don’t use good hygiene practices (washing hands, covering coughs)

57. Vaccinations