1. Northeast River Forecast Center DOC-NOAA-NWS SNEC-SWCS Edward J Capone Service Coordination Hydrologist Edward.Capone@noaa.gov Northeast River Forecast Center weather.gov/nerfc

2. NWS River Forecast Centers Mission: Protection of Life and Property – Flood Guidance – Water Supply 13 River Forecast Centers across USA 122 Weather Forecast Offices

3. National Weather Service Hydrologic Services Built upon 13 River Forecast Centers Built upon 13 River Forecast Centers Calibrate and implement a variety of hydrologic and hydraulic models and provide temperature and precipitation forecasts for the production of river flow and stage forecasts, inflow hydrograph forecasts, flash flood guidance, extended stream flow prediction, water resources information Calibrate and implement a variety of hydrologic and hydraulic models and provide temperature and precipitation forecasts for the production of river flow and stage forecasts, inflow hydrograph forecasts, flash flood guidance, extended stream flow prediction, water resources information Primary customers include the WFOs, Reservoir Operators, USACE Reservoir Control, USGS, Hydropower, FEMA, NFMS, NOS Primary customers include the WFOs, Reservoir Operators, USACE Reservoir Control, USGS, Hydropower, FEMA, NFMS, NOS Staffs mix of meteorologists, hydrologists, civil and environmental engineers/scientists Staffs mix of meteorologists, hydrologists, civil and environmental engineers/scientists 18 hr a day operations – 24 hrs during floods. 18 hr a day operations – 24 hrs during floods.

4. Weather Forecast Office New York/New England Service Areas WFO Caribou, ME WFO Caribou, ME Northeast Maine counties WFO Gray, ME WFO Gray, ME Southwest Maine and most of New Hampshire Less Cheshire and Hillsboro WFO Burlington, VT WFO Burlington, VT Northern 2/3 rds of VT WFO Albany, NY WFO Albany, NY Srn 1/3 of VT, Berkshire, MA, Litchfield, CT WFO Taunton, MA WFO Taunton, MA Rest of MA, all of RI, and the northern 2/3 rds of CT WFO Upton, NY WFO Upton, NY All coastal CT Counties WFO Binghamton, NY WFO Binghamton, NY Finger Lakes region WFO Buffalo, NY WFO Buffalo, NY Buffalo Creeks, Genesee and Black

5. Weather Forecast Office Responsibilities Watch/Warning responsibilities Watch/Warning responsibilities Coordinate final adjustments to RFC forecast guidance for their warning issuances Issue and coordinate all watches/warnings with local interests Flood/Flash Flood Drought/Water Resource Hydrologic Outlooks Define forecast service requirements Establish flood stages and impact statements for forecast points Work with RFC on developing modeling requirements EMA community collaborates directly Weather Forecast Office during events EMA community collaborates directly Weather Forecast Office during events

6. Northeast RFC Nearly 200 forecast location – Time to Peak: 6-48 hours – Elevation from 0 – 6600 ft River Basins – Connecticut – Hudson – Merrimack – Kennebec – St John Staff of 14 Located in Taunton, Massachusetts

7. Forecasts on Watersheds in Connecticut Connecticut Connecticut Farmington Farmington Housatonic Housatonic Yantic Yantic Quinebaug Quinebaug Willimantic Willimantic Thames Thames

8. River Forecast Center Responsibilities Calibrate and implement variety of hydrologic and hydraulic models and produce temperature and precipitation forecasts to provide: Calibrate and implement variety of hydrologic and hydraulic models and produce temperature and precipitation forecasts to provide: River flow and stage forecasts at NEARLY 200 locations River flow and stage forecasts at NEARLY 200 locations Guidance on the rainfall needed to produce Flash Flooding Guidance on the rainfall needed to produce Flash Flooding Ensemble streamflow predictions Ensemble streamflow predictions Ice Jam and Dam Break support Ice Jam and Dam Break support Water Supply forecasts Water Supply forecasts Reservoir Inflow Forecasts Reservoir Inflow Forecasts Moderate flooding - Connecticut River at Portland, CT.

9. Critical Partners DOI - USGS Water Science Centers Enhancing the public safety by providing data for forecasting and managing floods Enhancing the public safety by providing data for forecasting and managing floods Characterizing current water-quality conditions Characterizing current water-quality conditions Determining input rates of various pollutants into lakes, reservoirs, or estuaries Determining input rates of various pollutants into lakes, reservoirs, or estuaries Computing the loads of sediment and chemical constituents Computing the loads of sediment and chemical constituents Understanding the biological effects of contamination Understanding the biological effects of contamination Delineating and managing flood plains Delineating and managing flood plains Operating and designing multipurpose reservoirs Operating and designing multipurpose reservoirs Setting permit requirements for discharge of treated wastewater Setting permit requirements for discharge of treated wastewater Designing highway bridges and culverts Designing highway bridges and culverts Setting minimum flow requirements for meeting aquatic life goals Setting minimum flow requirements for meeting aquatic life goals Monitoring compliance with minimum flow requirements Monitoring compliance with minimum flow requirements Developing or operating recreation facilities Developing or operating recreation facilities Scheduling power production Scheduling power production Designing, operating, and maintaining navigation facilities Designing, operating, and maintaining navigation facilities Allocating water for municipal, industrial, and irrigation uses Allocating water for municipal, industrial, and irrigation uses Administering compacts or resolving conflicts on interstate rivers Administering compacts or resolving conflicts on interstate rivers Defining and apportioning the water resources at our international borders Defining and apportioning the water resources at our international borders Evaluating surface- and ground-water interaction Evaluating surface- and ground-water interaction Undertaking scientific studies of long-term changes in the hydrologic cycle Undertaking scientific studies of long-term changes in the hydrologic cycle

10. Critical Partners US Army Corps of Engineers New England District – Reservoir Control New England District – Reservoir Control Buffalo, NY District – Mount Morris Dam Buffalo, NY District – Mount Morris Dam CWMS – Corps Water Management System CWMS – Corps Water Management System

11. Prerequisites for a Forecast Established gage location Established gage location Need historical record Need historical record Both gage data Both gage data And temp/precip And temp/precip Define basin and appropriate segments Define basin and appropriate segments Calibrate model Calibrate model Develop forecast scheme Develop forecast scheme Current limitation: Current limitation: =/> 100 sqmi =/> 100 sqmi =/> 6 hr response time =/> 6 hr response time

13. Connecticut River Watershed Configuration

14. Soil Moisture Modeling and Calibration Sacramento Soil Moisture Model Sacramento Soil Moisture Model Input: Rain/Melt from snow model Input: Rain/Melt from snow model Models motion of water through upper and lower soil layers Models motion of water through upper and lower soil layers Outflow time series consists of multiple runoff and base flow sources Outflow time series consists of multiple runoff and base flow sources HEC-RAS for hydraulic reaches such as Tidal Hudson/Connecticut HEC-RAS for hydraulic reaches such as Tidal Hudson/Connecticut Snow17 Snowmelt model Snow17 Snowmelt model Inventory and Analysis of Historical Data – 1948 to 2010 daily forcings Inventory and Analysis of Historical Data – 1948 to 2010 daily forcings Time Series Based on Historical Data Time Series Based on Historical Data Model Selection Model Selection Calibration of Model Parameters Calibration of Model Parameters SACSMA, SNOW17, Reservoir Ops SACSMA, SNOW17, Reservoir Ops Hydraulic Model calibration done separately – former 1D FLDWAV and now 1D HEC-RAS Hydraulic Model calibration done separately – former 1D FLDWAV and now 1D HEC-RAS

15. Process Starts with Data Q/C COOP Data, ASOS, Mesonets, CoCoRAHS COOP Data, ASOS, Mesonets, CoCoRAHS Radar estimates are combined with observations to produce an hourly mosaic grid and basin average estimate of rainfall Radar estimates are combined with observations to produce an hourly mosaic grid and basin average estimate of rainfall Mean (6 hr) Areal Precip & Temp basin averages - past 24 hrs Mean (6 hr) Areal Precip & Temp basin averages - past 24 hrs

16. Multi-Sensor Precipitation Estimator Hourly Multi-sensor Precipitation Estimation (Radar / Gage Mosaic) Hourly Multi-Sensor Grid Production (1 hour grid analysis)

17. Precipitation/Temperature Forecasting Hydro-met Analysis Support forecaster Hydro-met Analysis Support forecaster Rainfall forecasts out 48-72 hours Rainfall forecasts out 48-72 hours Longer for contingency guidance Longer for contingency guidance Temperature forecasts during the cool-season Temperature forecasts during the cool-season Lower and Upper zones (upper >2kft) Lower and Upper zones (upper >2kft) Issued 3 times a day Issued 3 times a day

18. Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS) Modular software to enhance collaboration and accelerate R2O Modular software to enhance collaboration and accelerate R2O Extension of the Flood Early Warning System (FEWS) architecture: Extension of the Flood Early Warning System (FEWS) architecture: Incorporates NWS models with models from FEWS, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (ACE), and academia Incorporates NWS models with models from FEWS, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (ACE), and academia To help us meet the demands of future water resource services FEWS NWS Models USACE Models Other Models FEWS Models

19. Community Hydrologic Prediction System

20. The End Result Our Graphical and Text Forecasts

21. Exceedance Display Short-Range Probabilistic River Forecasts Early March 2011 Floods Hurricane Irene’s Approach

22. River, Rainfall, Temperature and Snowmelt Displays

23. 23 Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) Probabilistic information to support risk-based decisions Seamless short- to long-term HEFS within CHPS Implementation Status: Demonstrating components of short- term capability at 6 RFCs Will deploy additional prototypes during the next 2 years Initial version of full capability in 2013 Incorporates both atmospheric and hydrologic uncertainties

24. Modeling Tides and Storm Surge Moderate flooding -Connecticut River at Portland, CT. Moderate flooding -Connecticut River at Chester, CT.

26. Future Services: National Inundation Mapping Program The development of static inundation mapping NWS helps guide you through the process but it requires dedicated funding on the state/local community’s part Only available where NWS produces stage forecasts IE: the larger rivers (Connecticut, Blackstone, Pawtuxet) The development of static inundation mapping NWS helps guide you through the process but it requires dedicated funding on the state/local community’s part Only available where NWS produces stage forecasts IE: the larger rivers (Connecticut, Blackstone, Pawtuxet)

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29. Northeast River Forecast Center DOC-NOAA-NWS Edward J Capone Service Coordination Hydrologist Edward.Capone@noaa.gov Northeast River Forecast Center weather.gov/nerfc