1. Maybe Limits to Growth But no Limits to Progress Presentation mr. Rein Willems President Shell Nederland B.V. RIVM Congress “LIMITS TO GROWTH?” Friday April 15, 2005

2. “Food plus Energy are necessary for the existence of men”

3. Oil consumption per unit GDP Rest world World Industrialised countries Source: Oil & Gas Journal Change since 1973: World total –39% Industr. Countries –50% Rest world –24% Barrels per $ 1,000 GDP (1990-dollars)

4. 335209 51Other renewables 3222,5Biomass/waste 74,5Hydro 1514Nuclear 273)167(All fossils 8344Gas 11875Oil 7548Coal 20302002 Source: IEA Energy Outlook 2004 IEA scenarios energy consumption (mln barrels oil equivalent) Total

5. Highlights of IEA Reference Scenario Fossil fuels stay dominant: in 2002 80% market share; in 2030 82 % All growth in global energy consumption supplied by fossils Gas fastest grower in fossils Nuclear almost stable in capacity – reduced market share ‘Real’ renewables (wind, solar, modern biomass) make slow start

6. 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 84 30 120 20052030 New build production capacity 90 Natural decrease of production from existing fields Oil mln. barrels/day Necessary increase in capacity world oil production

7. Reserves conventional oil Ultimate recovery3,350 bn barrel Already produced 717 bn barrel Still producable2,630 bn barrel Unconventional oil Heavy oil7,000 bn barrel Oil sandsoil originally Oil shalein place }

8. 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 ‘Seventies’ 2005 $/barrel Development economy oil sands Cost oil sands Market price conven- tional oil Oil sands Conven- tional oil

9. Pull Out all the Stops Stop 1:New techniques to increase recovery existing fields Stop 2:Find more oil and gas reservoirs Stop 3:Reduce production costs Stop 4:Develop unconventional oil and gas reserves Stop 5:Develop commercial renewables Stop 6:Gasification techniques Stop 7:Environmental technology Stop 8:R&D in nuclear power Stop 9:Energy conservation

10. 2000 2050 Renewables Biomass Nuclear Natural Gas Oil A Coal B Scenario Primary Energy, EJ per year Nuclear Biomass Renewables Source: IPCC2001 / WBCSD Energy use & Fuel mix in 2050