1. Greenhouse gas emission scenarios for agriculture in Finland UNFCCC Workshop on Emissions Projections from Annex I Parties, 6-8.9.2004, Wissenschaftszentrum, Bonn, Germany Paula Perälä, Heikki Lehtonen MTT Agrifood Research Finland paula.perala@mtt.fi;heikki.lehtonen@mtt.fi

2. Background Previous agricultural scenarios developed in 2001, presented in Finland´s Third National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change No major changes in agricultural policy since the previous emission scenarios Development of emissions in line with the previously projeted emissions Process of updating previous scenarios is under way

3. Updating of agricultural emission scenarios Implementation and review of National Climate Strategy New reporting guidelines for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry-> CO 2 emissions from agricultural soils currently included under Agriculture but are now to be reported under Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry Coordination: Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry Calculations: MTT Agrifood Research Finland, Economic Research, Environmental Research With Measures-scenario, With Additional Measures-scenario Emission scenarios up to 2025

4. Methodology for creating agricultural emission scenarios Policy scenarios: With measures, base scenario: Follows Agenda 2000 reform With additional measures, CAP reform-scenario: Follows the EU agricultural policy reform agreed in June 2003 Emission scenarios-combination of two models: MTT Agrifood Research Finland, Economic Research: The agricultural sector model DREMFIA-> dynamic recursive optimisation model simulating changes in agricultural production and prices MTT Agrifood Research Finland: Model used for estimating annual greenhouse gas emissions in Finland-> emissions reported to the UNFCCC and European Commission in national greenhouse gas inventory

5. Spatial price equilibrium model drives changes in production and prices The agricultural sector model DREMFIA: dynamic, recursive optimisation model (maximises consumer and producer surplus), includes 18 production region, most important products, includes 18 different dairy products, excludes horticulture, sheep and horses Outputs (activity data for the greenhouse gas emission scenarios): land use, animal production, use of feed, fertilisation, crop yield response; milk yield response; farm investments; endogenous domestic product prices Exogenous input prices; absolute production volume is uncertain, but changes between the outcomes of policy scenarios are more robust

6. Model for calculating agricultural emission scenarios Excel-spreadsheet model developed at VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, under further development at MTT Agrifood Research Finland Currently includes CH 4 emissions from enteric fermentation, CH 4 and N 2 O emissions from manure management and N 2 O emissions from agricultual soils Emissions are calculated according to IPCC guidelines Uses the results of the DREMFIA-model as an input

7. Model for calculating agricultural emission scenarios Main drivers are animal numbers, milk production per dairy cow, the amount of syhthetic fertiliser sold annually and crop yields IPCC default emission factors used Expert judgement and linear interpolation/extrapolation used for estimating the development of some parameters, eg. animal numbers not included into DREMFIA-model, development of animal weight

8. Further development Models should be developed further in order to better fit together, eg. all the most important animal categories and crop species should be included Process for calculating emission scenarios should be included into the National System for making greenhouse gas inventories Models should be further developed in order to calculate projected CO 2 emissions from agricultural soils according to new IPCC guidelines for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry Use of these scenarios for the purposes of follow up implementation of National Climate Strategy