1. Click to edit Master title style Projecting GHG emissions & removals from Agriculture & LULUCF New Zealand methods & experiences Leonard Brown New Zealand Climate Change Office Presented at the UNFCCC workshop on projections Bonn Sept 6-8 2004

2. Click to edit Master title style Institutional arrangements (for inventory & projections) Agriculture Projections Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry New Zealand Climate Change Office Projections MAF National exotic forest database Statistics New Zealand Animal census & survey AgResearch Ltd CH 4 Tier 2 methodology Overseer N 2 0 model LULUCF Projections MAF NZCCO NZ Carbon Accounting System Forest Research Ltd Growth & C sequestration model

3. Click to edit Master title style Animal population by species: beef, sheep, dairy, deer – (Pastoral Supply Response Model) Productivity & emissions per animal. Forecast of nitrogen fertiliser usage. Agriculture Policies & Measures Environmental N constraints Price measures (C) Research $NZ Prices Weather Carrying capacity Livestock data

4. Click to edit Master title style Agriculture improvements General model development - equations Changes in input parameters over time, e.g. forage quality Sensitivity analysis and scenario building Improved estimation of carrying capacity limit Improved stock unit estimation by livestock class

5. Click to edit Master title style Forestry Key drivers Area planted in Kyoto forests to date Scenarios of future new forest planting Carbon accumulation models Assumed rotation length Deforestation 10000 ha 10% deforestation 20000 ha 5% deforestation 30000 ha 0% deforestation planting and Kyoto deforestation scenarios

6. Click to edit Master title style Forestry improvements Modelling - Capability and Flexibility Improve modelling – scenarios, vary multiple parameters Data - New Zealand Carbon Accounting System Refine & validate the accuracy of plantings since 1990 Refine and spatialise growth rates of planted forest Improve deforestation estimate Improve estimate of carbon in all pools for all forest