1. Climate Change to 2030 Re-defining Terroir Professor Snow Barlow ASTE, FAIAST Melbourne School of Land and Environment University of Melbourne

2. The globe is warming at an increasing rate IPCC 2007

3. South Eastern Australia is also warming 2030

4. TRENDS IN PHENOLOGY Côtes-du-Rhône Ganichot, 2002

5. Vines are and will respond to this warming A shift in ‘average date when grapes reach 21°Brix’ of about 28 days for Pinot Noir between 1984-1997 and 1998-2009 10 th Apr average pre1998 13 th Mar average 1998 and post 28 days Webb, Whetton and Barlow (in press)

6. Future climates will change in both mean and variance of temperature and rainfall Models and observations indicate increases in both  Mean temperatures  Temperature Variance resulting in  More hot weather and extreme events  Less change in cold weather  frost uncertain IPCC 2007

7. Future Environments for Viticulture – Southern Australia Temperature – + 0.7-1.2 C in 2030 and +2.3- 3.5 C in 2070 –More extreme events – heat waves Rainfall –- 4% by 2030 and -12-13% by 2070 –Vine water use up + 7% in 2030 and +20-25% 2070 –Runoff is more severely affected Frost –Difficult to know, but could be worse Carbon Dioxide –What will 450ppm do ?

8. 2.5 °C 4.2 °C Climate driven changes in phenology exacerbate post verasion temperature increases Webb, Whetton and Barlow 2008

9. Vines are and will respond to this warming But is it temperature alone ? A shift in ‘average date when grapes reach 21°Brix’ of about 28 days for Pinot Noir between 1984-1997 and 1998-2009 10 th Apr average pre1998 13 th Mar average 1998 and post 28 days Webb, Whetton and Barlow (in press)

10. Elevated CO2 increases Canopy Temperature Free air CO2 enrichment -FACE  CO2 enrichment increases crop growth by approximately 20%  CO2 enrichment decreases water loss and increases canopy temperature

11. Elevated CO2 increases the capacity of the leaf to produce sugar at high temperatures Photosynthesis Leaf temperature ( 0 C) Long 1991 Leaves are more tolerant of high temperatures at elevated CO2 Photosynthetic rates and carbon accumulation can be higher at these high temperatures Potential for high sugar and compressed vinatges

12. Alcohol Contents of wine are increasing Godden & Gishen 2005

13. A word from Charles Darwin “It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives.” “It is the one that is the most adaptable to change.”

14. Climate Change Adaptation Framework Current productivity programs Strategic system adaptation Transformation to new climate, Need good economic models to assist producers define the milestones

15. Climate Change Projections -2030 Adelaide Hills Wine Region Region- Adelaide Hills 2030 high emissions projected change 1970-2005 baseline Percent Probability CLIMATE VARIABLE105090 potential evapotranspiration (%)1.16.64.1 Rainfall (%)-14.8-13.20-7.1 relative humidity (%)-1.5-0.6-0.2 solar radiation(%)0.10.71.5 Temperature (°C)+0.5+0.8+1.3 wind speed (%)-2.80.43.4 t_max (°C)+0.6+0.9+1.4 t_min (°C)+0.5+0.8+1.2

16. Wine industry adaptation to climate change In situ Adaptation –Irrigation management of extreme events –Secure water –Modified canopy management –Re-evaluate crop load /quality relationships –Evolve wine styles System Adaptation –Change variety /rootstock –Change row orientation /canopy management –Change wine style –Investigate delays of phenology Transformation –Same wine style –new terroir –Row orientation –Secure water –surface/ground –Alcohol management –Flavour management

17. How do these warmer ripening temperatures impact on grape and wine quality ? Webb, Whetton and Barlow 2008

18. More impact Less impact Potential reduction in winegrape value from climate change in 2030 Riverina 16- 52% Yarra Valley 4 - 10% Coonawarra 1 - 4% Hunter Valley 5 - 17% Year 2030 Margaret River 3 - 7% * measured by surrogate for quality: $/tonne No price data

19. Grapevine development and maturity is strongly influenced by ambient temperature Jones 2007

20. Winegrape viticulture is practiced internationally within a relatively narrow latitude band and temperature range 2050 Isotherms move poleward by 150-300km - NH area expands,SH declines Jones 2008

21. % change in land area with equivalent climate 1 e.g. Pinot Noir 15.8-19.1ºC Total Area 2 C. Sauvignon 19.1-20.2ºC 3 Many 20.2-20.7ºC 4 Shiraz 20.7-22.3ºC 5 Verdelho 22.3-23.4ºC 6 Chenin Blanc 23.4-24.8ºC 2030 mid warming2050 high warming2050 low warming

22. Temperature ( °C) Black Saturday Smoke taint? Damage to vineyards reported

23. In the past 200 years, greenhouse gases have continued to increase, and the Earth has warmed

24. (°C) Cabernet Sauvignon VineLOGIC phenology model employed for this analysis (CRCV) +1.4C +2.2C Chardonnay +1C +2C

25. Distribution of varieties (Bearing hectares) in 2002 in selected wine regions of Western Australia (Source ABS)

26. (°C) Cabernet Sauvignon VineLOGIC phenology model employed for this analysis (CRCV) +1.4C +2.2C Chardonnay +1C +2C Warming has dual effects

27. 2.5 °C 4.2 °C Impacts of Climate change on Grape ripening temperatures

28. TRENDS IN PHENOLOGY Côtes-du-Rhône Ganichot, 2002

29. Australian Phenology Trends for vintage, sugar and alcohol Australian vintages are moving forward at about 1 day per year Assuming average sugar accumulations of 1 Be’/week in final stages of ripening 1 day per year is equivalent of 0.14% sugar per year AWRI (Creina Stockley) reported today average increases of 0.14% alcohol increase per year over the same period (1990-2003)

30. TRENDS IN PHENOLOGY Côtes-du-Rhône Ganichot, 2002

31. Grapevine Phenology Responds strongly to Temperature Greg Jones 2008

32. Winegrape viticulture is practiced internationally within a relatively narrow latitude band and temperature range

33. Finding the ‘Right’ Climate

34. Climate Suitability will move South with Climate Change Cooler climate varieties Warmer climate varieties Pinot Noir Chard. Cab Sauv. Merlot Shiraz Semillon Verdelho Riesling Chenin Blanc E.g. Present Climate Year 2050 high warming Year 2050 mid warming Year 2030 mid warming No varietal preference

36. 2030 lower warming 2050 lower warming 2030 higher warming 2050 higher warming

37. Current infrastructure and production is concentrated in the traditional irrigation regions (~60%). Need to find varieties suitable for this warmer ‘trailing margin’. Adaptive challenges What will happen behind this ‘trailing margin’? Year 2050 lower warming

38. Rsq=0.6094 The temperature sensitivity model

39. Are these phenology changes driven by more than temperature ?- Carbon Dioxide