1. GIS ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE WARMING IMPACT ON WINE GROWING REGIONS DISTRIBUTION IN SLOVENIA Andreja Sušnik* Lučka Kajfež-Bogataj** Blaž Kurnik* * Environmental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia ** Biotechnical Faculty, University of Ljubljana Workshop on climatic analysis and mapping for agriculture 14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy

2. Talk Outline Climate Change Issues Winegrowing in Slovenia Winkler index GIS Technique Results Conclusions

3. Starting points The baseline climate in a region largely determines the varieties that can ripen and the general style (flavor and structure) of wine an area can produce. Grapevines are generally grown in narrow climatic zones for a specific variety’s optimum quality, putting them at a greater potential risk from climatic variations and change. Good wine cannot be made from bad grapes.

4. Climate Change Potential Effects on Viticulture  Warmer and longer growing seasons  Altered phenological timing  Altered ripening profiles  Climatic thresholds  Altered disease and pest timing and severity  Altered water needs  CO 2 issues (growth and quality)  Need for management adaptations

6. Maracchi, 2003 ITALY:

7. German study

8. Germany, Austria (Stock, 2003)

9. Winegrowing regions in Slovenia and existing vineyards locations (red)  17000 ha (54000 vines) Primorje region Posavje region Podravje region

10. Method Comparison of baseline period 1961-1990 to 1975- 2004 modified Winkler climatic index as climate indice GIS technique (54 stations) Simple analysis do not account for moisture issues, respiration effects, winter cold, extreme weather etc.

11. Geographical Resources Analysis Support System (GRASS) software GRASS is a free software under terms of general public license, developed in the Centre for Applied Geographical and Spatial Research at Baylor University. There is also an internal computer language that allows user to create new applications and link GRASS to other software packages (eg. GSTAT). In this study we developed methodology to plot contours of temperature sums over small regions. Thus, interpolation using the simple kriging techniques has been performed for each point of the 100 x 100 m grid over Slovenia land below 1000 m a.s.l. Estimates have been made for each point of the grid using 55 locations. For spatial estimation of the change the integrated geostatistical GRASS functions were used.

12. Data of land use were derived by CORINE land cover and by Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Food vineyards locations were obtained. Locations of meteorological stations used in the GIS analysis (54 red dots) Posavje region

13. The classification of the viticultural climatic regions according Winkler climatic index (Riou, 1994) Area I < 1390 °C Geneve, Vienna, Geisenheim, Dijon, Bordeaux Area II 1391 to 1670 °C Budapest, Napa (USA), Santiago (Chile) Area III 1671 to 1950 °C Montepellier (France), Milan Area IV 1951 to 2220 °C Venice, Mendoza (Argentina), The cape (South Africa) Area V > 2220° C Split (Croatia), Palermo (Italy), Algiers (Algeria)

14. Winegrowing regions according to modified Winkler climatic index (IW m ) as used in Slovenia Area I < 1390 °C Area II 1391 to 1670 °C Zone 1 < 1150 °C Zone 2 1151 to 1250 °C Zone 3 1251 to 1350 °C Zone 4 1351 to 1450 °C Zone 5 > 1450° C  Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5

15. Variety classification based on the average growing season temperature 6 world winegrowing regions are marked Comparison with 3 Slovenian winegrowing regions

16. An increase in average growing season temperature 14.4 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.6 15.8 16.0 16.2 PosavjePodravjePrimorje. Average growing season temperature (°C) 1961-1990 1975-2004

17. Slovenian land area during 1961-1990 and 1975-2004 regarding to IW m Zone IW m Area 1961-1990 (ha) % Area 1975-2004 (ha) % 1 < 1150 0 C 1307071 72.6 764051 42.4 2 1150 - 1250 0 C 389554 21.6 392193 21.8 3 1250 - 1350 0 C 76935 4.3 469105 26.1 4 1350 - 1450 0 C 27039 1.5 164508 9.1 5 > 1450 0 C 0 0 10685 0.6

18. Slovenian viticultural area during 1961-1990 and 1975-2004 regarding to IW m IW m Area (ha) 1961-1990 % Area (ha) 1975-2004 % 1 < 1150 0 C 7796 50 248 2 2 1150 - 1250 0 C 3708 23 3008 1919 3 1250 - 1350 0 C 2308 15 8232 52 4 1350 - 1450 0 C 1917 12 3670 23 5 > 1450 0 C 0 0 571 4

19. Distribution of IW m in Slovenia during 1961 – 1990 and existing viticulture areas existing vineyards locations in Slovenia (black)

20. Comparison of IW m areas in Slovenia 1961-1990 1975-2004 existing vineyards locations in Slovenia (black spots)

21. The analysis of elevation of existing wine growing regions average elevation shift for 132 m from 1961-1990 to 1975-2004 In recent period the potential viticultural regions possible up to 700 m a.s.l. zone 1961- 1990 (m) 1975- 2004 (m)  h (m) 1578672+96 2238398+160 3161267+106 457168+111 528

22. Conclusions Geostatistics can be applied to describe the spatial variability of meteorological parameters over small regions. Later varieties could gain on their structure with climate change because their ripening would be shifted to a more optimal time, i.e. the mid September in Primorska and the beginning of October in Podravje and Posavje. The ripening of earlier varieties (Pinot Gris, Pinot Noir, Chardonnay, Pinot Blanc) may shift to the period with relatively high temperatures also over night which makes them less favourable. In Primorje region certain adjustments are required. Cooler regions should benefit more than warm regions with the ability to shift to a wider range of varieties. Some regions, near their optimum, may no longer be able to produce the same wines without changes in technologies.