1. Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5 th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013 AdcircLite-NC Rapid computation of storm surge and waves for NC coastal waters Brian Blanton Renaissance Computing Institute/UNC Chapel Hill Jesse Bikman, MS Candidate Department of Marine Sciences, UNC Chapel Hill Alexander Taflanidis, Andrew Kennedy University of Notre Dame Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering and Earth Sciences

2. Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5 th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013 Why rapid computation? Urgent forecasting needed before disaster strikes Forecast simulations are resource intensive, requiring 2.5 - 3 hours computation time on 192 processor systems Planners/emergency managers need forecast information as quickly as possible AdcircLite-NC provides storm surge and wave forecasts at response nodes by implementing UND surface response method

3. Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5 th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013 Project goals and expected results Task 1.Preliminary data and testing/calibration of UNDInterpolator – Establish response node evaluation dataset – Hindcast hurricanes such as Fran and Isabel Task 2.Expand to include wave characteristics – Expand UNDInterpolator to include significant wave height, period, direction Task 3.Integrate into North Carolina Forecast System – Post-process UNDInterpolator output into NC-CERA/OPeNDAP formats Task 4.Calibration and Skill Assessment – Cross validate to improve accuracy – Optimize for storm surge and wave heights

4. Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5 th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013 What does AdcircLite-NC do? Response Surface Method(RSM) — Given an set of input parameters, predict a response influenced by several variables Input parameters for AdcircLite-NC: hurricane parameters RSM for AdcircLite-NC: UNDInterpolator

5. Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5 th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013 What does ADCIRC-Lite do? AdcircLite-NC uses NHC best track and pre- computed dataset as inputs

6. Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5 th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013 What does AdcircLite-NC do? UNDInterpolator evaluates track response using pre-computed dataset

7. Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5 th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013 What does AdcircLite-NC’s RSM look like? Where x = vector containing hurricane track parameters Ẑ i (x) = response at x b(x) = basis functions a i (x) = basis coefficients NB = number of basis functions

8. Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5 th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013 What parameters are used? 1.Central Pressure Deficit (CPD) 2.Radius to Maximum Winds (RMW) 3.Holland B Shape Parameter (HB) 4.Translation Speed (TS) 5.Approach Angle (θ) 6.Distance Between (DB)

9. Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5 th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013 Visual description of RMW

10. Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5 th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013 Visual description of θ

11. Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5 th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013 Relationship between Holland B, RMW, and V G

12. Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5 th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013 Progress to date: Task 1. Preliminary datasets and testing of the UNDInterpolator – Established testbed of response nodes – Compared UNDInterpolator output from response nodes to validated ADCIRC runs for hurricanes Fran and Isabel

13. Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5 th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013 Next steps, near-term Improve hindcasting weights optimization by removing tidal forcing from validated ADCIRC model run

14. Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5 th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013 Comparison of Ẑ to max ele from validated run

15. Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5 th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013 Next steps, long-term Incorporation of AdcircLite-NC into NC-CERA

16. Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5 th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013 Works cited 1.Blanton, Brian, Peter Vickery, Rick Luettich, Jeff Hanson, and Kevin Slover. North Carolina Floodplain Mapping Program Coastal Flood Insurance Study Submittal Number 3 - Production Simulations and Statistical Synthesis. 2011. 2.Taflandis, Alexandros A., Andrew B. Kennedy, Joannes J. Westerink, Jane Smith, Kwok Fai Cheung, Mark Hope, and Seizo Tanaka. "Rapid Assessment of Wave and Surge Risk during Landfalling Hurricanes; a Probabilistic Approach." Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering. (2012) 3.Toro, G.R., A.W. Niedoroda, C.W. Reed, and D. Divoky. "Quadrature-based Approach for the Efficient Evaluation of Surge Hazard." Ocean Engineering (2009) 4.Vickery, Peter J., and Brian O. Blanton. North Carolina Coastal Flood Analysis System Hurricane Parameter Development Submittal Number 1, Section 5 A Draft Report for the State of North Carolina Floodplain Mapping Project. 2008. 5.Vickery, Peter J., and Dhiraj Wadhera. "Statistical Models of Holland Pressure Profile Parameter and Radius to Maximum Winds of Hurricanes from Flight-Level Pressure and H*Wind Data." Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 47.10 (2008): 2497. 6.Walton, Todd L., Jr. "Distributions for Storm Surge Extremes." Ocean Engineering 27 (2000): 1279- 293.