0. Senior Advisor, Japan International Cooperation Agency
JICA’s Cooperation for DRR / HFA activities & HFA 2 = 1st Arab Conference on DRR =
March 2013
TAKEYA Kimio
Senior Advisor, Japan International Cooperation Agency

1. Hyogo Framework for Action
Overall Goal:
Building the resilience of nations and communities to disasters
Three Strategic Goals:
The integration of disaster risk reduction into sustainable development policies and planning
Development and strengthening of institutions, mechanism and capacities to build resilience to hazards
The systematic incorporation of risk reduction approaches into the implementation of emergency preparedness, response and recovery
Priorities for Action:
HFA1
Make Disaster Risk Reduction a Priority
HFA2
Know the Risks and Take Action
HFA3
Build Understanding and Awareness
HFA4
Reduce Risk
HFA5
Be Prepared and Ready to Act 1

2. JICA’s Support meet to the Priority Action
The projects related to priority action 4 are increasing rapidly compared to others.
It entails the best mix of structural and non-structural measures.
Priority 4
Priority 2
Priority 5
Priority 3
Priority 1

3. Trend in JICA’s Activity
(Number of projects）
Majority of JICA Projects up to 90’s : Structural measures
from : Non structural measures
Projects by combination of structural and non-structural measures are increasing. 3

4. Typical Disaster Management Cycle & DRR
・Hazard mapping, evacuation drill
・Organization Reinforcement
・Establishment of Disaster Management Plan
・Development of Early Warning System
・Reconstruction and Rehabilitation of Infrastructure
・Mental Health Care
Mitigation
Preparedness
Response
Recovery
・Dispatch of Rescue team
・Provision of Rescue supply
Disaster

5. Example of Practical DRR Support
Understand the risk
Adapt for the Risk
Prepare, Mitigate the Risk
Response Plan
Urban Planning
Building Codec
Transportation
Anti Earthquake Hospital
Education
・・・
・・・

6. Algeria Seismic Micro Zoning Survey damages of building

7. Expected Death Number

8. Expected Bridge Damage

9. Expected Water supply Damage

10. Expected Electricity Supply Damage

11. Business Continuity Plan for the “Country”
Practical Support
Understand the risk
Business Continuity Plan for the “Country”
Adapt for the Risk
Prepare, Mitigate the Risk
Response Plan
Urban Planning
Building Codec
Transportation
Anti Earthquake Hospital
Education
・・・
・・・

12. Three keys for Successful DRR
Self Support or
Self Defense
Mutual Support
Public Support

13. JICA’s another Support to Mainstreaming the National Disaster Management for Asia
Sri Lanka
Support to Capacity Development for “Disaster Management Center” of Sri Lanka
Thailand
Support to Capacity development for “Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM)”
Indonesia
Support to National Disaster Management Plan & Regional Disaster Management Plan through BNPB, National Disaster Management Agency Capacity Development
Philippines
Support Office of Civil Defense Capacity Development
Public Support

14. Disaster obstruct Development
At least, Build-back-better
Development
Normal Development
Obstructed by
Disasters,
far away from
MDGs
Disaster
Recovery & Development
Disaster
Disaster
Time

15. History of flood control in Tone River basin (400years ago)
Up to 15th Century, Tone River crossed the Kanto Plain from north to south and flew into Tokyo Bay
Tone River
Kinu River
Watarase River
Kokai River
From 1594 to 1654, Tone River was connected to Pacific Ocean by eastward channel
・After the flood in 1910, flood control measures in upper and middle reaches has changed from “flood control allowing inundation” to “sequential levees confinement”
・After this change, the maximum discharge in the Tone River Channel has increased, which became the main challenge of flood control in Tone River Basin
Tone River
Kinu River
Watarase River
Kokai River
・15世紀までの利根川は、関東平野を南流し、首都東京（江戸）のある東京湾に流下していました。
・この利根川を60年かけて（1594年～1654年）太平洋へ直接注ぐように東へと付け替えました（利根川東遷）。
・一方、1910年の洪水を契機に、中上流域の治水方策が「（中条堤上流の）氾濫を織り込んだ洪水調節方式」から「連続堤防方式」に転換させることになりました。
・これ以降、利根川中流の洪水の負担が増大することになり、これに河川整備やダム、遊水地の建設など様々な対策を組み合わせて対応することが、利根川流域の治水対策の主要な課題となりました。
Source: Water and Disaster Management Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, Japan

16. Reduction of flood damages in Japan by continuous investment
Number of fatalities
This seems rare case in the world to spent so much money to prevention
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
1946
1951
1956
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
Area inundated (ha)
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
1962
1967
1972
1977
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
Number of fatalities and inundation area have dramatically been reduced in Japan
due to continuous investment in and efforts for flood mitigation.
Source: Water Disaster Statistics, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure Transport and Tourism

17. What is the barrier for mainstreaming the DRR
Development
Normal Development
Obstructed by
Disasters,
far away from
MDGs
At least,“build-back-better”
Disaster
but DRR investment is
much cheaper than recovery
Recovery & Development
Disaster
Disaster
How to convince & mainstream DRR?
Need to show the evidence !
Time

18. Economical Model which can measure
JICA developing Economic Model to show the effectiveness of DRR investment
Economical Model which can measure
GDP change
income differential and Gini coefficient change in Lorenz curve
With & Without DRR investment
Named

19. Differences with/without DRR investment to GDP
without disaster
Effect of
DRR investment
With DRR Investment
　　　　　（with disaster）
Sustainable development
GDP
Indicators to evaluate the entire benefit (A)
Disaster Event
By the conventional benefit evaluation method, benefit of DRR investment is evaluated with collective amount of the society.
(GRP and/or GDP)
Enlarged view
Without DRR Investment
（with disaster）
復旧資金不足による復旧遅延・経済活動の停滞
→貧困の罠の継続
Stop of economic activity by direct damage
⇒ Expansion of poverty
Stagnation of economic activity and the recovery delay due to lack of funds
→ continuation of poverty trap
Time
By disasters, increasing poverty and continued to be stuck in an increase in poverty, widening inequality, from the trap of poverty

20. Differences with/without DRR investment to Lorenz curve1
Most Rich
With
DRR Invest
Relative Frequency
Income Cumulative
Better Off
45度線
Near Poor
Without
DRR Invest
Poor
Extreme Poor
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8 1
Household No Cumulative Relative Frequency

21. Show the evidence to Policy Maker
Mainstreaming DRR
to Goverment Policy
without disaster
GDP
With DRR Investment
　　　　　（with disaster）
Sustainable development
Effect of
DRR investment
Indicators to evaluate the entire benefit (A)
Disaster Event
By the conventional benefit evaluation method, benefit of DRR investment is evaluated with collective amount of the society.
(GRP and/or GDP)
Enlarged view
復旧資金不足による復旧遅延・経済活動の停滞
→貧困の罠の継続
Without DRR Investment
（with disaster）
Stop of economic activity by direct damage
⇒ Expansion of poverty
Stagnation of economic activity and the recovery delay due to lack of funds
→ continuation of poverty trap
Show how Disaster Risk Reduction Investment account for Development
Time
By disasters, increasing poverty and continued to be stuck in an increase in poverty, widening inequality, from the trap of poverty

22. Deliver as a Computer Software

23. Combination of Structural Measures and Non-Structural Measures
Effectiveness
Investment and Effectiveness
Target
Safety Level
Levee
Barrage
Reservoir System
Levee
Investment

24. Combination of Structural Measures and Non-Structural Measures
Effectiveness
Goal
Safe and/or Resilient
Mitigation Adaptation
Non-Structural
Measures
Re-Foresting
Flood Proof Life Style
Appropriate Land Use
Flood Forecasting
Target
Safety Level
Early Warning
Evacuation
Insurance
Structural Measures
(Basic Infrastructures)
Levee
Barrage
Reservoir System
Levee
Control, Protection
Investment 24 24

25. The ability to recognize risk and take action properly
JICA’s Lesson Learned from Mega Disaster from 2011 March 11, Tsunami & Thailand Flood 1
Was there anything out of our mind?
The ability to recognize risk and take action properly
Risk Literacy

26. The ability to recognize risk and take action properly
JICA’s Lesson Learned from Mega Disaster from 2011 March 11, Tsunami & Thailand Flood 1
Was there anything out of our mind?
The ability to recognize risk and take action properly
Risk Literacy

27. Tsunami Evacuation Situation in general
Population of damaged area of 3 prefectures, 1km from coast is 460,000, 3km 1.0million, 5km 1.5million
Total causalities were around 26,000
460,000 residents lived in the tsunami affected area so that evacuation ratio can be estimated more than 90 %
This high evacuation ratio achieved by legend transmission, by Tsunami Early Warning System and by evacuation drill effort
65% of casualties were aged people, over 65 y.o.

28. Successful Evacuation by Students in Kamaishi City
The students started evacuation promptly and voluntarily, following their experiences of evacuation drills.
The students decided to evacuate further to higher ground based on their own observation of situation.
(Source: Research Center for Disaster Prevention in the Extended Tokyo Metropolitan Area, Gunma University)

29. Combination of Structural Measures and Non-Structural Measures
Effectiveness
Climate Variability?
Climate Change?
Target
Safety Level
Levee
How to prepare
excess flood?
or Project is not
completed yet
Barrage
Reservoir System
Levee
Investment

30. How about the magnitude of big earthquake
How about the magnitude of big earthquake? E/Q happens with long return period Lesson learned of E/Q transferred to next generation? If no, you can learn from examples
C:\DATA\DATA\日本の知見\耐震実験\

31. How about the magnitude of big earthquake
C:\DATA\DATA\日本の知見\耐震実験\

32. Variety of Early Warnings for Tsunami in Japan
TV and Radio, emergency warning
Cell phone warning for earthquake
Registered earthquake broadcast service
Loud speaker evacuation order to community
others

33. Every Natural Disaster has forerunning phenomenon then we can predict disaster & let people evacuate実写
奈良県
Even debris flow
We can predict

34. JICA’s Lesson Learned from Mega Disaster from 2011 March 11, Tsunami & Thailand Flood 2
Was there anything out of our mind?
Continuous Adaptation to Change
continuous improvement to deal with changing risk

35. “multi-sector” and/or “multilayer of defense
JICA’s Lesson Learned from Mega Disaster from 2011 March 11, Tsunami & Thailand Flood 3
Was there anything out of our mind?
“multi-sector” and/or “multilayer of defense
Redundancy
High raised road stopped Tsunami

36. No or Low Regret Investment for Sustainable Development
JICA’s Lesson Learnt from MEGA Disaster =2011 March 11, Tsunami & Thailand Flood=
Was there anything out of our mind?
“multi-sector” and/or “multilayer of defense
The ability to recognize risk and take action properly
Redundancy
Risk Literacy
Capacity of society
To cope with disaster
Three Principles for
No or Low Regret Investment
for Sustainable Development
Continuous Adaptation to Change
continuous improvement to deal with changing risk

37. JICA’s Mainstreaming DRR initiative
There are so many project which forgot to pay attention to DRR, same as Thailand industrial zone
JICA internally planning to mobilize the process mainstreaming DRR into every JICA project
Set the mandatory process to all project, “Disaster Risk Assessment”

38. Structure of Post ＨＦＡ HFA 2 HFA 1 ～2015 Post MDG /SDG
Prepared by Kenso Hiroki, ICHARM
Goals and targets
HFA 2
New experiences, lessons and progress
HFA 1
～2015
Items that were not recognized as subjects of HFA

39. Proposing tools for Post MDG/HFA
Convince Policy Maker
by DR2AD Model
Political
Leaders
Three Principles approach for
Low Regret Investment
Practi-
tioner
Disaster Risk Assessment
to all projects
Donors

40. Thank you for your attention