Presentation on theme: "The golden age of technology"— Presentation transcript:
1 The golden age of technology André V. MendesCTIOPBS
2 Warnings & Caveats This presentation reflects my opinions Things happen whether we like them or notFocus on concepts rather than specific buzzwordsWe will go fast, screen is busyCaveat emptor
3 A quick baseline…Introduction, hysteria, disappointment, maturity, productivityWe overestimate short term effects of technological changeWeb retailWe underestimate long terms effects of technological changeWe evolved from yeast!
4 “Advancing waves of other people’s progress sweep over the unchanging man and wash him out. You need to organize a department of systematic change-making!” Charles Kettering, speech to US Chamber of Commerce, 1929
5 What is “Technology”?Technology is whatever did not exist when we were growing up:Swords and catapultsGutemberg’s press & Leeuwenhoek’s microscopeElectricity, telephoneRadio & televisionComputers and antibioticsInternet and robots
6 It is constantly accelerating… You’re not crazy… Things are getting faster!For the past few billion yearsPrimitive cells evolved in billions of yearsDNA – digital recording of evolutionHigher level organisms, tens of millions of yearsHumanoids, millions of yearsHomo Sapiens, hundreds of thousandsTechnology creating species meant a shift away from DNA (protein synthesis) based evolution!
7 Pedal to the metal… With man made technology: Sharp edges, fire, wheel – tens of thousandsBy 1000 AD big changes took 2 centuries19th century more growth than the previous 18First 20 years of the 20th century eclipsed 19thWWW is 11 years old!21st Century expect 200 centuries of progress!Expectation of linear growthDouble exponential growth
11 Hence change in computing paradigms! Host based (Mainframes, mini-computers)CPU and storage absurdly expensiveBandwidth basically inexistentClient ServerCPU still costly, storage cheaperExternal bandwidth still basically inexistentWeb eraCheap CPU & Storage, costly bandwidthWeb Services realmCheap CPU, storage and bandwidthVirtual reality realmVirtually free CPU, storage and bandwidth
12 Now then… What’s next?We are reaching a critical stage in a variety of scientific and technological disciplinesAs our knowledge in each individual arena deepens, we are coming to the realization that they are deeply intertwined at the most elemental levels:Physical SciencesLife SciencesComputer SciencesAnthropologySocietal StudiesEconomicsWe increasingly leverage and cross pollinate across disciplines in order to further accelerate the process
14 Which brings forth… Incredible scientific progress: We are taking charge of the human evolutionary process with a return to protein synthesis (DNA) based evolutionSingle gene correctionTelomerase vaccineNano scale implantsDrug dispensing, disease detection, electrical stimulationStem cellsNervous system & brain tissue regeneration“Wet” interfacesCochlear implantsArtificial vision
17 At the same time…We continue to embed biological like behavior into our computer systemsDNA regeneration, immune systemSelf healing OS, virus detectionTraining & Learned behaviorFraud detectionVoice recognition, pen recognitionVisual memoryPattern recognition, facial id’sCloning, resource re-allocation, maintenance of homeostasis
18 For all practical purposes… Computer systems have, almost invisibly, become members of society:My travel agent is ExpediaMy research assistance is GoogleMy broker is E-tradeAnd stratify into core competencies like humans do.They will supplement each others through technologies like Web Services with:Pay per service fees (Micro Payments)Industry specific lingo (XML variants)Yellow pages (UDDI)
19 And we are becoming… Willing participants in their virtual realm Through increasingly sophisticated AvatarsConstantly researching on our behalfIs there a fare sale to Lisbon?Is there a 1971 E-type Jag on e-bay?Any new studies on cartilage replacement surgery?Which VOIP provider has the best rates?Any new FCC pronouncements on DTVBy 2030 a substantial portion of our daily interaction will be in a virtual environment!
20 Over the next few years… A substantial number of fundamental technologies will move beyond the hype and squarely into “full productivity”Technology will move further away from a “mushroom” type of influence and into a “yeast” like effect whose impact will be profound in every section of society.From medicine to entertainmentFrom manufacturing to salesFrom education to militaryTechnology will be essential, pervasive and will continue to disappear into the background!
21 Technology will show in.. Ever increasing percentage of GDPProductivity enablementEconomic growth, low inflationFully informed manufacturing cyclesSupply chain, ERP, E-commerce, CRMAggregation of dataCompany, area, region, nationalEnables economic stimulus, pullbackShortens and shallows recessionary periods
24 Interestingly enough… Unemployment and underemployment will continue to very slowly riseOutsourcing and tipping pointsRemove bandwidth obstaclesGenerate enough demand (90’s bubble)Global economyEffectively, outsourcing is a web service!Bidirectional with an outward bias!
25 Today, SCM is an imperative! Mitsubishi produces 60 cars per hour in a mostly automated JIT factoryTires come straight from loading dock to lineChevrolet slashes time to marketNew model variant every 22 days!!!!WallMart and Home Depot have mandated RFID usage by major suppliers by 2005Southwest, Jet Blue, Air Tran
26 “I do not believe that you can do today’s job with yesterday’s methods and be in business tomorrow” Nelson Jackson
27 What must PTV do…. Optimize the entire PTV supply chain From producers to aggregators/distributorsFrom distributors to member stationsFrom member stations to end usersOptimize content and its granularityStandardize metadataIngest onceEliminate codec cyclesOptimize distributionModularize each step maximizing ability to changeEliminate redundant processesFocus on core competencies and local impact