1. The golden age of technology
André V. Mendes
CTIO
PBS

2. Warnings & Caveats This presentation reflects my opinions
Things happen whether we like them or not
Focus on concepts rather than specific buzzwords
We will go fast, screen is busy
Caveat emptor

3. A quick baseline…
Introduction, hysteria, disappointment, maturity, productivity
We overestimate short term effects of technological change
Web retail
We underestimate long terms effects of technological change
We evolved from yeast!

4. “Advancing waves of other people’s progress sweep over the unchanging man and wash him out. You need to organize a department of systematic change-making!” Charles Kettering, speech to US Chamber of Commerce, 1929

5. What is “Technology”?
Technology is whatever did not exist when we were growing up:
Swords and catapults
Gutemberg’s press & Leeuwenhoek’s microscope
Electricity, telephone
Radio & television
Computers and antibiotics
Internet and robots

6. It is constantly accelerating…
You’re not crazy… Things are getting faster!
For the past few billion years
Primitive cells evolved in billions of years
DNA – digital recording of evolution
Higher level organisms, tens of millions of years
Humanoids, millions of years
Homo Sapiens, hundreds of thousands
Technology creating species meant a shift away from DNA (protein synthesis) based evolution!

7. Pedal to the metal… With man made technology:
Sharp edges, fire, wheel – tens of thousands
By 1000 AD big changes took 2 centuries
19th century more growth than the previous 18
First 20 years of the 20th century eclipsed 19th
WWW is 11 years old!
21st Century expect 200 centuries of progress!
Expectation of linear growth
Double exponential growth

9. Let’s talk about change!
Tbps
I backbone
Gbps
ESCON (fiber) channel
Network
bandwidth
Mbps
Wireless LANs
Bus & tag
PC modem
Kbps
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s

10. Converging accelerations
1,000,000X
100,000x
10,000x
1,000x
100X
10X
MIPS
storage
bandwidth 1X
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s

11. Hence change in computing paradigms!
Host based (Mainframes, mini-computers)
CPU and storage absurdly expensive
Bandwidth basically inexistent
Client Server
CPU still costly, storage cheaper
External bandwidth still basically inexistent
Web era
Cheap CPU & Storage, costly bandwidth
Web Services realm
Cheap CPU, storage and bandwidth
Virtual reality realm
Virtually free CPU, storage and bandwidth

12. Now then… What’s next?
We are reaching a critical stage in a variety of scientific and technological disciplines
As our knowledge in each individual arena deepens, we are coming to the realization that they are deeply intertwined at the most elemental levels:
Physical Sciences
Life Sciences
Computer Sciences
Anthropology
Societal Studies
Economics
We increasingly leverage and cross pollinate across disciplines in order to further accelerate the process

14. Which brings forth… Incredible scientific progress:
We are taking charge of the human evolutionary process with a return to protein synthesis (DNA) based evolution
Single gene correction
Telomerase vaccine
Nano scale implants
Drug dispensing, disease detection, electrical stimulation
Stem cells
Nervous system & brain tissue regeneration
“Wet” interfaces
Cochlear implants
Artificial vision

15. Artificial vision

16. Artificial vision

17. At the same time…
We continue to embed biological like behavior into our computer systems
DNA regeneration, immune system
Self healing OS, virus detection
Training & Learned behavior
Fraud detection
Voice recognition, pen recognition
Visual memory
Pattern recognition, facial id’s
Cloning, resource re-allocation, maintenance of homeostasis

18. For all practical purposes…
Computer systems have, almost invisibly, become members of society:
My travel agent is Expedia
My research assistance is Google
My broker is E-trade
And stratify into core competencies like humans do.
They will supplement each others through technologies like Web Services with:
Pay per service fees (Micro Payments)
Industry specific lingo (XML variants)
Yellow pages (UDDI)

19. And we are becoming… Willing participants in their virtual realm
Through increasingly sophisticated Avatars
Constantly researching on our behalf
Is there a fare sale to Lisbon?
Is there a 1971 E-type Jag on e-bay?
Any new studies on cartilage replacement surgery?
Which VOIP provider has the best rates?
Any new FCC pronouncements on DTV
By 2030 a substantial portion of our daily interaction will be in a virtual environment!

20. Over the next few years…
A substantial number of fundamental technologies will move beyond the hype and squarely into “full productivity”
Technology will move further away from a “mushroom” type of influence and into a “yeast” like effect whose impact will be profound in every section of society.
From medicine to entertainment
From manufacturing to sales
From education to military
Technology will be essential, pervasive and will continue to disappear into the background!

21. Technology will show in..
Ever increasing percentage of GDP
Productivity enablement
Economic growth, low inflation
Fully informed manufacturing cycles
Supply chain, ERP, E-commerce, CRM
Aggregation of data
Company, area, region, national
Enables economic stimulus, pullback
Shortens and shallows recessionary periods

24. Interestingly enough…
Unemployment and underemployment will continue to very slowly rise
Outsourcing and tipping points
Remove bandwidth obstacles
Generate enough demand (90’s bubble)
Global economy
Effectively, outsourcing is a web service!
Bidirectional with an outward bias!

25. Today, SCM is an imperative!
Mitsubishi produces 60 cars per hour in a mostly automated JIT factory
Tires come straight from loading dock to line
Chevrolet slashes time to market
New model variant every 22 days!!!!
WallMart and Home Depot have mandated RFID usage by major suppliers by 2005
Southwest, Jet Blue, Air Tran

26. “I do not believe that you can do today’s job with yesterday’s methods and be in business tomorrow” Nelson Jackson

27. What must PTV do…. Optimize the entire PTV supply chain
From producers to aggregators/distributors
From distributors to member stations
From member stations to end users
Optimize content and its granularity
Standardize metadata
Ingest once
Eliminate codec cycles
Optimize distribution
Modularize each step maximizing ability to change
Eliminate redundant processes
Focus on core competencies and local impact

28. Public Television’s Content Supply Chain
Manufacturing
Distribution
Retail
Consumer
WGBH/WNET
Traffic and
underwriting
Hosted
scheduling &
underwriting M1 M2 P1 P2 M1 M2
Local
production
Orion/Broadview
Transmitter P1 P2 M1 M2 M2 M1
NETA/APT
Edge server,
automation,
branding &
ATSC encoding M1 M2
Server & Archive P1 P2 P1 P2 P1
Cable
Head end P1 P2 P1 P2 P2 P1 P2
Other Producers M1 M2 P2 P1 P2 P1
DBS LTL
Monitoring & resolution
Monitoring & resolution P1 P2
Hardware, software,
audio and video
monitoring
Internet

29. Questions?