1. PELAJARAN DARI MASA DEPAN
Drs. Johny Setyawan, MBA
UNIVERSITAS GADJAH MADA

2. TUJUAN PENYAJIAN Membuka cakrawala audiens tentang:
Silent revolution yang sedang terjadi
Karakteristik jaman teknologi informasi
Karakteristik jaman bioekonomi
11 Pelajaran dari masa depan
Rekomendasi

3. THE SILENT REVOLUTION

4. THE ECONOMY CYCLES EV: C>B>A Time: F<E<D C Bioeconomy
Economic Value (EV) B
Information Age
Economy
EV: C>B>A
Time: F<E<D A
Industrial Age
Economy D E F
Time
1800
1970
Today
2020

5. Infra structure creation
THE ECONOMY CYCLE
First
Quarter
Second
Quarter
Third
Quarter
Fourth
Quarter
Falling price boom
Business X’formation
Economic Value
Infra structure creation
Science
B’through
Time

6. THE PERSONAL COMPUTER SILENT REVOLUTION
TIME
1970
1980s
Today
2005
2020s
UNTHINKABLE
EMERGING
UBIQUITOUS & SMALLER
WIRELESS
INVISIBLE

7. JAMAN EKONOMI INFORMASI

8. INDUSTRIAL ECONOMY AGE INFORMATION ECONOMY AGE
DRIVERS
INDUSTRIAL ECONOMY AGE
INFORMATION ECONOMY AGE
Keamanan & stabilitas
Mekanisasi
Spesialisasi & produktivitas
Globalisasi & deregulasi
Communication tech.
Computer technology

9. INDUSTRIAL ECONOMY AGE INFORMATION ECONOMY AGE
RESOURCES
INDUSTRIAL ECONOMY AGE
INFORMATION ECONOMY AGE
Raw materials
Real estate
Cheap labor
Information
Knowledge
Skills + ideas

10. INDUSTRIAL ECONOMY AGE INFORMATION ECONOMY AGE
SUCCESS FACTORS
INDUSTRIAL ECONOMY AGE
INFORMATION ECONOMY AGE
Knowledge
Experience
Management
Productivity
Skills
Attitude
Leadership
Focused

11. INDUSTRIAL AGE “CULTURE” INFORMATION AGE “SPIRIT”
PERBEDAAN
INDUSTRIAL AGE “CULTURE”
INFORMATION AGE “SPIRIT”
Structured & predictable
Economy of scarcity
Learn a skill
Security
Job preservation
Capital equipment
Status quo
Hierarchical regulated
Zero sum
Haves vs. have nots
Chaos and disorder
Economy of plenty
Lifelong learning
Risk-taking
Job creation
Intellectual capital
Speed and change
Distributed & networked
Win-win
Haves vs. want nots >> the economics of attitude >> it’s your choice, your call. It’s not up to someone in central power anymore

12. JAMAN BIOEKONOMI

13. JAMAN BIOEKONOMI Merupakan the second information revolution.
Enablers:
Bandwidth and internet technology >> World wide digital skin (billions of interconnected devices, e.g. the integration PC w/t digital cell phone; that will create a ubiquitous nervous system for the planet) >> Lightspeed, wireless, invisible communication and interconnection 24x7x52 >> The butterfly effect.
Nanotechnology >> Miniature technology (size of one billionth millimeter) >> PC will be manufactured atom by atom, molecule by molecule, to be embedded wherever, whenever, dan in whoever. >> imagine internet/web server implanted under your skin which can remind your for incoming directly via your nervous system to your visual cortex for instant viewing---perfectly, no matter what the quality of your eyes .
Biotechnology >> Genetic engineering >> Each DNA molecule contains 3 billion bits of information, the software of life >> Clone for longer life, no hunger, no sickness.

14. JAMAN BIOEKONOMI
Market power (flow of capital) is moving from the giant conglomerates (a few thousand wealthy family) to the individual consumer (hundreds of millions of individual investors/wallet votes).
Forever changing in how people work, network, and access information.
The value of any electronic device increases exponentially as it connects to the world’s digital skin; example: door bell which can relate to HP when someone push its button will become a very valuable electronic device.

15. NEAR FUTURE CHANGE Same content to everyone Any content on demand
BROADCAST RADIO & TV IN INDUSTRIAL AGE
INTERNET RADIO & TV IN INFORMATION AGE
Same content to everyone
At the same time
Multiple copies
Licenced by intermediaries (the channels)
Very limited consumer choice of content and advertising
Any content on demand
Any time
One copy
Direct purchase by consumers from internet (no more channels; no more CNN, BBC or CNBC)
Perfect consumer choice of content and advertising
Requires an abundance of bandwidth

16. THE LESSONS

17. “Information and ideas fuel the new global economy!”
LESSON #1 FROM THE FUTURE
“Information and ideas fuel the new global economy!”
“Pure knowledge is worthless. Skills and ideas are everything.”
(Wolfgang Grulke)

18. “Biotechnology is the second information revolution!”
LESSON #2 FROM THE FUTURE
“Biotechnology is the second information revolution!”
“Information professionals, rather than biologists, are creating an economy that will have more a profound impact on our world than anything seen in the Digital Age.”
(Wolfgang Grulke)

19. It is the “personal” age!
LESSON #3 FROM THE FUTURE
It is the “personal” age!
“As the focus of the new economy shifts from centralized control to individual responsibility, everything from computing to healthcare to manufacturing to energy production will feel the benefits of decentralization.”
(Wolfgang Grulke)

20. Leadership can be widely shared!
LESSON #4 FROM THE FUTURE
Leadership can be widely shared!
“Organizations are beginning to resemble flocks of birds, as individuals take turns to determine direction and lead aspects of the enterprise.”
(Wolfgang Grulke)

21. Fractal/non-linear behavior is the norm!
LESSON #5 FROM THE FUTURE
Fractal/non-linear behavior is the norm!
“Don’t be afraid of chaos. It’s just biological behavior.”
(Wolfgang Grulke)

22. The “unknown” is the realm of all possibilities!
LESSON #6 FROM THE FUTURE
The “unknown” is the realm of all possibilities!
“Uncertainty presents a moment of real freedom. Leave the baggage of experience behind. Take a giant leap into the Great Unknown.”
(Wolfgang Grulke)

23. Eat yourself---become your own worst nightmare!
LESSON #7 FROM THE FUTURE
Eat yourself---become your own worst nightmare!
“Don’t wait for new competitors to show you how customers ought to be serviced. Do it yourself, while you can still afford it.”
(Wolfgang Grulke)

24. You can no longer learn just from experience!
LESSON #8 FROM THE FUTURE
You can no longer learn just from experience!
“The faster things change, the less relevant experience becomes. You must learn from the future.”
(Wolfgang Grulke)

25. LESSON #9 FROM THE FUTURE
Don’t compete!
“We’re living in the most competitive market in history. So don’t compete! Find white-space opportunities in which you have no competitors.”
(Wolfgang Grulke)

26. It’s one world, one mind, one time!
LESSON #10 FROM THE FUTURE
It’s one world, one mind, one time!
“Our planet is wrapped in a digital skin, uniting all people, with one internal clock that runs 24x7x52. Use the entire global resource base. Beat to your customers’ drum.”
(Wolfgang Grulke)

27. “Tomorrow is a matter of choice.”
LESSON #11 FROM THE FUTURE
“Tomorrow is a matter of choice.”
“Make it yours by focusing on it decisively.”
(Wolfgang Grulke)

28. REKOMENDASI
Be Literate !
Speak English !!
Get Wired !!!
Be Wireless !!!!
Be Invisible !!!!!

29. So help us GOD !