1. Managing Fisheries for the Marketplace What the Global Seafood Market Wants from Fishery Managers Howard M. Johnson H.M. Johnson & Associates BC Seafood Alliance Summit IV November 1, 2005

2. Howard M. Johnson Howard@hmj.com www.hmj.com 30+ years in the seafood industry 15+ years in seafood consulting and market research Technical Advisory Board of Marine Stewardship Council Conservation Committee, Sea Change Investment Fund Co-Author Buyer’s Guide to Sustainable Seafood

3. What the Global Seafood Market Wants from Fishery Managers Supply from well-managed and restored fisheries Timely data Quality/safety assurance Sustainability Traceability

4. Supply from Well-Managed and Restored Fisheries Future global demand will require significantly more seafood Markets tending to prefer “wild” seafood FAO estimates capture fisheries could increase by 10% if restoration is successful

5. Forecast World Seafood Demand 33 Million Ton Increase by 2020 Million Tons Source: Int’l Food Policy Research Inst. 33 Million Tons

6. FAO Edible Seafood Demand Forecast Increase of 27 Million Tons by 2015 versus 2002 Source: FAO 137 Million Tons

7. China 2020 Future Demand 20 Million Tons

8. Japan 2020 A Shrinking Market

9. U.S. Population 1950 Versus 2020 70+ Million Americans Over Age 60 by 2020 % of Population

10. U.S. Seafood Demand in 2020 Three Scenarios 27.2 kg per capita 20.4 kg per capita 21.8 kg per capita + + + Million Tons Round Weight 817,000 MT Increase 4.1 Million MT Increase 1.5 Million MT Increase

11. Global Demand Forecast 2020  Per capita consumption projected at 17.1 kg  Developing countries will account for 79% of food fish production by 2020  Real fish prices will rise 4 to 16%  Meat prices will fall 3%  Fishmeal and oil prices will rise 18% Source: Int’l Food Policy Research Inst.

12. Timely Data Stock assessments – what’s coming Catch data – what’s happening Ex-vessel prices – what’s it worth

13. Quality/Safety Assurance Development of species specific quality/safety standards. Development of quality assurance seals and logos.

14. Quality Assurance Programs Alaska Quality Seafood –Voluntary –Third party verification –Logo promotion Norwegian Seafood –Export oriented –Branded –Commission by Norwegian parliament

15. Sustainability Certifies that fisheries are healthy, well- managed and do not impact the environment Strong support in Europe Often used to counter NGO charges and confirm sound management

16. 16 Trade press coverage traces a shift in industry attitude on sustainability 2004 1997 “If you’re a seafood company, you don’t crawl under the covers with greenies.” “The sustainable seafood movement is here to stay. Make no mistake about that.” “Market demand for sustainable, or environmentally responsible, fish is crossing over from a niche to the mainstream.”

17. The Marine Stewardship Council Standard Three Main Principles Effective Management The sustainability of the stock Ecosystem Impact

18. Fishery Certification

19. MSC Certified Fisheries (12) Alaska Salmon (all species) – 332 498 MT New Zealand Hoki – 100 000 MT Alaska Pollock (BS/AI) – 1 500 000 MT Alaska Pollock (Gulf of Alaska) – 70,000 South African Hake – 166 000 MT Western Australia Rock Lobster – 10 750 MT Southwest Handline Mackerel – 1 750 MT Thames Herring – 121 MT Loch Torridon Nephrops – 150 MT Burry Inlet Cockles – 7 135 MT South Georgia Toothfish – 4 500 MT Mexican Baja California Spiny Lobster – 1 300 MT

20. Undergoing Certification (19) Australian Mackerel Icefish – 2 980 MT BSAI Pacific Cod Freezer Longline – 100 000 MT British Columbia Salmon – 16 900 MT California Chinook Salmon – 900 - 2 700 MT Chilean Hake (Trawl) – 82 000 T Hastings Fishing Fleet Dover sole – 40 MT Hastings Fishing Fleet pelagic – 80 MT Lake Hjälmaren Pikeperch – 165 MT Lakes and Coorong fisheries, South Australia (domestic) Maryland Striped Bass – 900 MT North Eastern Sea Fisheries Committee Lobster – New North Eastern Sea Fisheries Committee Sea Bass – New North Sea Herring (PFTA) – 329 000 MT Oregon Dungeness Crab – 4 500 MT Oregon pink shrimp – New Pacific Halibut & Sablefish: (3 fisheries) BC & Alaska/Oregon/Washington – 34 000 MT Patagonian scallops – 6,000 MT

21. Retailers engaged –79% agree environmental impact is key procurement criterion –88% indicate responsibility to promote sustainable choices Consumers interested –Purchase decision based on Freshness (97%) Health benefits (91%) Environmental impact (79%) –86% “more likely” to buy seafood labeled as environmentally responsible Momentum in Europe

23. Switzerland Germany & Austria Product Availability Sweden, Norway, Finland, Denmark Ireland

24. Product Availability France Greece ItalySpain Belgium USA Australia

25. Product Availability

26. Traceability Now an essential part of doing business From “boat to throat” Chain of custody for certified fisheries

27. Conclusion From a seafood marketing perspective Canada has a great opportunity. Stable, well-managed fisheries will become an even more vital economic asset in tomorrow’s global seafood market. Preservation of seafood resources and the infrastructure needed to exploit them is essential to long term viability of the industry.

28. Thank You