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2020 Competitiveness of Clean and Renewable Energy From Biomass 2009 Brazil Energy Conference.

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Presentation on theme: "2020 Competitiveness of Clean and Renewable Energy From Biomass 2009 Brazil Energy Conference."— Presentation transcript:

1 2020 Competitiveness of Clean and Renewable Energy From Biomass 2009 Brazil Energy Conference

2 Increasing international concerns on energy security and CO2 emission reduction Ethanol is part of the Brazilian strategic agenda Strong domestic ethanol market growth coupled with international expansion Increasing potential for electricity from biomass in Brazil Sector in evolution Consolidation/new actors Focus on operational excellence Sustainability Potential for innovation and break-through technology Competitiveness: 2 Oil production cost Ethanol production cost Macro trends 2009-2020 open great opportunities for energy from biomass

3 3 Source: LCA, Unica Milling (mm ton)4265659401.200 Ethanol mix 45%60%68%75% Sugar Production (mm ton) 31414530 2006200820152020 13 25 55 69 Billion liters – fuel market CAGR 13% Significant growth of Brazilian Ethanol Market

4 4 mm m3 - PVC and Polyethylene - Additive in gasoline to increase octane in place of MTBE 18 % a.a Green Plastics ETBE Chemicals  Brazilian ethanol demand (industrial uses)

5 5 USA E.U. Japan India China 2008 18 2020 110 5 60 Billion liters Brazillian export potential World Demand (Ex Brazil) International Market Expansion Source: LMC e FAO

6 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Rising Production Cost of and Oil and Energy  Projection of Supply and Energy Cost Source: Booz Allen / IEA Oil Prices WTI Corn Ethanol Sugar Cane Ethanol Heavy Oil Pre-Salt OPEP & Conventional Oil Others Sources Cash Cost (US$/boe) MM barrels of oil equivalent per day

7 Electricity from Biomass 7 GW Source: EPE 0,6% 2,8% % of the biomass energy on the total installed domestic potential.  High potential to increase the presence of electricity from biomass in the Brazilian energy matrix.  Growth of Brazilian economy drives prices to a good ROCE.

8 Increase of Ethanol Competitiveness  Ethanol at gas station x oil 8 98 63 84 87 97 109 122 137 143 147 152 157 162 49 42 40 39 38 37 36 35 Oil Price WTI Ethanol cost at gas station – adjusted for oil evolution Ethanol cost at gas station – present scenario 2008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020 61 46 47 48 51 52 56 54 53 55 57 50 Ebitda 50% Ebitda 20%

9 9 Rapid consolidation in the industry 20% 20202008 16% Mills with capacity over 4 mm ton Market Consolidation TOP 10 32% 50% 28% 2009 Center-South Market 70%

10 10 2020 Trends  Leaders with capacity over 100 mm ton/year.  Necessary investments (2009- 2020) over US$ 45 billion (debt + equity)  New actors: traders and oil companies  Strong interest of capital market Ranking Crop 08/09 Milling Brazil: 1.200 mm ton Milling Brazil: 565 mm ton Cosan (Nova América) Dreyfus (Santelisa) Tereos Moema Usaçúcar Alto Alegre Carlos Lyra São Martinho Tércio W. Zillo Lorenzetti 52,6 31,5 13,8 12,7 12,3 12,1 12,0 11,8 10,2 34,3 ETH (Crop 2015) Rapid consolidation in the industry

11 ETH Vision Sustainability Culture & PeopleCompetitiveness Build a leading company in bioenergy (ethanol and co-generation of electricity), focused on value creation for its shareholders through:

12 12 ETH business model: based on competitiveness and integration Synergies Standardization Integrated Production Clusters SCALE Long-Term Contracts High return on capital Biomass energy production ELECTRICITY New markets and product development Pricing skills Competitive Logistics Customer Focus INTEGRATION I n o v a t i o n & T e c n o l o g y

13 ETH 2015 13 Energy Sales Ethanol Sales 2,1 million MWh 3,0 billion liters Potential EBITDA Revenues 50% US$ 2,5 billion New Opportunities Opportunities in supply chain Internationalization Integration in the value chain Market Leader

14 2020 Competitiveness of Clean and Renewable Energy From Biomass 2009 Brazil Energy Conference


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