1. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Development of the energy potential of the forestry sector and wood energy in a sustainable way. UNECE/FAO Policy Forum: The Forest Sector in the Green Economy, Geneva – Switzerland, October 15 th, 2009. André Faaij Copernicus Institute - Utrecht University Task Leader IEA Bioenergy Task 40

2. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Developed perceptions… GHG balances not OK Endless subsidies needed. Land and water constrain bioenergy to marginal levels. Increases food prices and not good for farmers. Other alternatives (solar, efficiency, hydrogen) are better and really sustainable.

3. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management After the burst of the bubble in 2008… Strong policy action: –Push for sustainability frameworks –Push for 2 nd generation biofuels and other advanced options –Targeting lignocellulosic resources (residues from agriculture, forestry, marginal/degraded lands) –Market players follow this development

4. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Bioenergy today 45 EJ + 10 EJ total use (global about 480 EJ) 9 EJ + 6 EJ commercial; non-modern ~ 8 EJ Modern; commercial: –< 1 EJ electricity –~ 2.5 EJ heat –~ 1.5 EJ biofuels (bulk = ethanol; half of that ethanol sugar cane based) Main controversy on biofuels from annual crops and palm oil. Currently some 25 Mha in use for biofuels worldwide (compared to 5,000 Mha for food)

5. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Certification bioenergy: ongoing initiatives Governments: UK, NL, D, B, and more EU nations…; EC, US, DC’s… NGO’s & International bodies. Market initiatives/multistakeholder: roundtables on palm, soy, sugar and biofuels, utilities,… IEA Task 40:Van Dam et al., 2008; Biomass & Bioenergy. www.bioenergytrade.org

6. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Energy & climate crisis can only be tackled by a portfolio of all options we have available. GHG mitigation Potentials [IPCC AR4, 2007] [IIASA]

7. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Limitations in degraded land, protected areas and water

8. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Overall Picture Yes, biomass can play a significant role in future energy supply Dornburg et al., 2008

9. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Perennial crops (vs. annual crops) Lower costs (< 2 €/GJ) Planted for 15-25 years Low(er) intensity – Can restore soil carbon and structure – Suited for marginal/degraded lands – Requires less inputs (well below key threshold values) Wide portfolio of species & production systems – Possibilities for enhancing (bio-) diversity – Adaptable to local circumstances (water, indigenous species) Earlier development stage – Large scale and diverse experience needed – Learning curve to be exploited – Improvement potential Miscanthus x giganteus

10. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Yields: perennials ~3x annual CropBiomass yield (odt/ha* yr) Energy yield in fuel (GJ/ha*yr) Wheat4 - 5~ 50 Corn5 – 6~ 60 Sugar Beet9 – 10~ 110 Soy Bean1 – 2~ 20 Sugar Cane10 – 20~ 180 Palm Oil10-15~ 160 Jathropha5-6~ 60 SRC temperate climate10 – 15100 - 180 SRC tropical climate15 - 30170 - 350 Energy grasses good conditions10 - 20170 – 230 Perennials marginal/degraded lands3 - 1030 – 120

11. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Experience curve for primary forest fuels in Sweden and Finland (1975 and 2003). Source: Junginger Faaij et al., 2005

12. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Experience curve for the average and marginal production cost of electricity from Swedish biofuelled CHP plants from 1990-2002 Source: Junginger, Faaij et al., 2005

13. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Developing international bioenergy markets Japan ethanol pellets palmoil& agricultural residues USA Japan W. Europe Brazil E. Europe & CIS South East Asia Ethanol Pellets Palm oil & agricultural residues Canada Wood Pellets Ethanol Palm Oil & Ag Residues [IEA Task 40; www.bioenergytrade.org]

14. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management A future vision on global bioenergy…(2040?) [GIRACT FFF Scenario project; Faaij, 2008] 250 Mha = 100 EJ = 5% ag land + pasture = 1/3 Brazilie

15. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Synthetic fuels from biomass Biomass & coal gasification to FT liquids - with gas turbine Power Pre-treatment: - grinding - drying feedstock is poplar wood Gasification: - air or oxygen - pressurised or atmospheric - direct/indirect Gas cleaning: - ‘wet’ cold or ‘dry’ hot FT liquids Offgas Recycle loop FT synthesis: - slurry reactor or fixed bed Gas turbine Gas processing: - reforming - shift - CO 2 removal Major investments in IG-FT capacity ongoing in China right now: - Reducing dependency on oil imports! - Without capture strong increase in CO2 emissions… About 50% of carbon!

16. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Economic performance 2 nd generation biofuels s.t. & l.t.; 3 Euro/GJ feedstock [Hamelinck & Faaij, 2006]

17. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management The IEA on biofuels… IEA-ETP, 2008

18. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Final Remarks We cannot miss out on the biobased economy for fundamental and interlinked reasons (energy, climate, soil & carbon management, rural development). Lignocellulosic biomass (perennials, residues) offer the excellent perspectives. Forest sector and (international) pellet markets offers an essential opportunity on shorter term + the market experience to build on for longer term. Follow the learning curve, develop (sustainable) markets and stimulate investment. Breakthrough of 2 nd gen biofuels may take affect on the forestry sector sooner than we think and will not be driven by policy but by economics