1. School of Natural Resources University of Nebraska-Lincoln
Managing Drought Risk in a Changing Climate: The Role of National Drought Policy
Dr. Donald A. Wilhite
School of Natural Resources
University of Nebraska-Lincoln

2. HMNDP Leadership!
WMO
FAO
UNCCD

3. hmndp.org

4. Steps to HMNDP 16th Session WMO Congress, 2011
Expert Meeting, Compendium of Best Practices on NDP, George Mason University, 2011
International Symposium on Integrated Drought Information Systems, Casablanca, 2011
1st IOC meeting, Geneva
Briefing session, Diplomatic Missions, April 2011
2nd IOC meeting, Brasilia, October, 2012
Rio +20 Side Event, Rio de Janeiro, October 2012
Meeting with key sponsors to finalize program, November, 2012
Applied Climate Sciences
School of Natural Resources

5. Presentation Outline The ENIGMA OF DROUGHT — a sense of urgency
Drought as hazard, characteristics, definition
Hydro-illogical Cycle/Crisis Management
Our CHANGING CLIMATE—CHANGING VULNERABILITY
Building SOCIETAL RESILIENCE
Drought monitoring, early warning and information systems
Vulnerability/risk/impact assessments
Mitigation and response measures
Moving towards a POLICY FRAMEWORK that enhances preparedness and risk reduction
Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP)
Compendium of best practices in support of NDP
Projected goals and outcomes of HMNDP: Recommendations for Future Actions
Applied Climate Sciences
School of Natural Resources

6. The Enigma of Drought

7. Drought—as hazard a normal part of climate. Applied Climate Sciences
School of Natural Resources

8. Drought—as hazard a normal part of climate.
occurs in virtually all climatic regimes.
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Mexico City, Mexico
Adelaide, Australia
Applied Climate Sciences
School of Natural Resources

9. Drought—as hazard a normal part of climate.
occurs in virtually all climatic regimes.
characteristics vary between regions.
definitions must be region and application specific.
impacts are a good measure of severity and an indicator of societal vulnerability or resilience.
Applied Climate Sciences
School of Natural Resources

10. Defining Drought Rainfall deciles
-Hundreds of definitions—application and region specific
Drought is a deficiency of precipitation (intensity) from expected or “normal” that extends over a season or longer period of time (duration)
Meteorological Drought
Rainfall deciles
All droughts begin with a ‘deficiency of precipitation’, sometimes also associated with high temperatures, high winds, etc.
When these conditions extend over a long period of time, they begin to affect many economic sectors and the environment.
Precipitation
Mean or Median
Time (months, years)

11. It’s so dry . . .
Applied Climate Sciences
School of Natural Resources

12. Defining Drought Meteorological Drought Agricultural, Hydrological and
-Hundreds of definitions—application and region specific
Drought is a deficiency of precipitation (intensity) from expected or “normal” that extends over a season or longer period of time (duration)
Meteorological Drought
and is insufficient to meet the demands of human activities and the environment (impacts).
Agricultural,
Hydrological and
Socio-economic Drought

13. Evolution of Drought Types
Cascading Impacts
What are the indices and indicators?

14. Natural and Social Dimensions of Drought
Decreasing emphasis on the natural event (precipitation deficiencies)
Increasing emphasis on water/natural resource management & policy
Increasing complexity of impacts and conflicts
Rainfall
Deficiencies
Heat Stress
Soils
Crops
Range
Livestock
Forests
Water Supply
Snow Depth
Irrigation
Recreation
Tourism
Hydropower
Drought Risk
Reduction
Hydrological
Agricultural
Meteorological
Socio-economic
Societal Impact
Time/Duration of the event

15. Drought compared to other natural hazards
slow onset, “creeping phenomenon”
drought’s onset and end difficult to determine
commonality with climate change

16. Drought– it sneaks up on you!

17. Drought compared to other natural hazards
slow onset, “creeping phenomenon”
drought onset and end difficult to determine
commonality with climate change
absence of a universal definition
impacts are nonstructural and spread over large areas
severity and impacts best defined by multiple indices and indicators
impacts are complex, affect many people, and vary on spatial and temporal timescales, multiple and migrating epicenters

18. 30 month animation—USDM,2010-2013

20. Breaking the Hydro-illogical Cycle: An Institutional Challenge for Drought Management
Crisis Management
If you do what you’ve always done, you’ll get what you’ve always got.
We MUST adopt a new paradigm for drought management!

21. Our Changing Climate
IPCC 21

22. Mean Temperature Increase & Impact on Extreme Temperatures
Box TS.5, Figure 1. Schematic showing the effect on extreme temperatures when the mean temperature increases, for a normal temperature distribution.

24. Shifting Distribution of Summer Temperature Anomalies
Hansen, NASA’s GISS, 2013

25. Adapting to Changing Extremes Highest 24h Precipitation
WMO
Highest Max. Temp.
Highest number of broken National maximum T°records in compared to the previous three decades
Fits with IPCC more hot days and
more heat waves
Lowest Min. Temp.
Lowest number of broken National minimum T° records in compared to the previous four decades
 Fewer cool nights
Highest 24h Precipitation
The previous two decades recorded highest number of national 24 hour precipitation records
Intensification of heavy rainfall
(Source: WMO country data.

26. Managing for Climate Variability
Storms
Impacts of Global Climate Change:
Increased frequency of extreme weather events
Floods
Droughts
along with heat waves, snow storms, etc.

27. The Climate Challenge for Drought Management
Increasing mean temperature
High temp. stress and heat waves/longer growing seasons
Increased evapotranspiration
Changes in precipitation amount, distribution and intensity
Reduced soil moisture
Changes in groundwater recharge
Reduced runoff/stream flow resulting from reduced snowpack/sublimation
Are droughts increasing in frequency, intensity and duration?
Applied Climate Sciences
School of Natural Resources

28. Changes in Societal Vulnerability
Drought impacts are more complex today as more economic sectors are affected, creating more conflicts between water users, i.e., societal vulnerability is dramatically different and changing.
Agricultural production
Food security
Energy
Transportation
Tourism/Recreation
Forest/rangeland fires
Municipal water
Water quality/quantity
Environment
Ecosystem services
Health

29. Natural Catastrophes Worldwide 1980-2012
Number
Number
500
400
300
200
100
Meteorological events
(Storms, etc.)
Hydrological events
(Flood, mass movement)
Geophysical events (Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption)
Source: Munich Re
© 2013 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at January 2013

30. Natural Catastrophes Worldwide, 1980-2012
Distribution of insured losses to different perils
Insured losses in 2012 US$: 970bn
Extreme weather events affect the core business of the insurance industry!
Meteorological events
(Storms, etc.)
Hydrological events
(Flood, mass movement)
Climatological events (Extreme temp,
drought, forest fire)
Geophysical events (Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption)
Source: Munich Re

31. Natural Disasters in the U. S
Natural Disasters in the U.S Number of Events, Annual Totals
2011 Total
171 Events 60 14 92 5
Meteorological events
(Storm)
Hydrological events
(Flood, mass movement)
Climatological events (Extreme temperature,
drought, forest fire)
Geophysical events (Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption)
Source: MR NatCatSERVICE
© 2011 Munich Re 31

32. Drought Disaster Designations October 10, 2012
$16 billion in crop insurance indemnities
Total drought impacts ~ $35-77 billion
Superstorm Sandy ~ $50 billion

33. greater vulnerability/decreased resilience to future drought events
Emergency response has a place in drought risk management, but it can also lead to:
greater vulnerability/decreased resilience to future drought events
increased reliance on government and donor interventions.
Applied Climate Sciences
School of Natural Resources

34. Building Societal Resilience through National Drought Policies and Preparedness Plans: The Way Forward
Applied Climate Sciences
School of Natural Resources

35. RISK Hazard Vulnerability Risk x = EXPOSURE Severity/Magnitude
- Intensity/Duration
Frequency
Spatial extent
Trends
- Historical
- Future
Impacts
Early warning
SOCIAL FACTORS
Population growth
Population shifts
Urbanization
Technology
Land use changes
Environmental
degradation
Water use trends
Government
policies
awareness
RISK
Applied Climate Sciences
School of Natural Resources

36. RISK Hazard Vulnerability Risk x = EXPOSURE SOCIAL FACTORS
Applied Climate Sciences
School of Natural Resources

37. The Cycle of Disaster Management
Risk management increases coping capacity, builds resilience.
proactive
reactive
Crisis management treats the symptoms, not the causes.

38. Reducing Societal Vulnerability
Improve drought awareness
Develop/improve monitoring, early warning and information delivery systems
Improve decision support tools
Complete risk assessments of vulnerable sectors, population groups, regions
Improve understanding and quantification of drought impacts vs. mitigation costs
Develop and implement drought preparedness plans
Create national drought policies based on the principles of risk reduction

39. Follow-on Actions—HMNDP
Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP)
Global Water Partnership/WMO initiative
Project—Capacity Development to support National Drought Management Policies (UN-Water, WMO, UNCCD), Bucharest, July 2013
Soliciting donor support for HMNDP declaration recommendations
Publication of key papers from HMNDP

41. IDMP Objectives
At global level, the IDMP will contribute to best practices related to drought risk management through:
Better scientific understanding of, and inputs for, drought management;
Improved knowledge base, with better access to information and products;
Drought risk assessment, monitoring, prediction, and early warning;
Policy and planning for drought preparedness and mitigation across sectors; and
Drought risk reduction and response.

42. National Drought Policy Goals
Proactive mitigation and planning measures, risk management, public outreach and resource stewardship.
Greater collaboration to enhance the national / regional / global observa­tion networks and information delivery systems to improve public unders­tanding of, and preparedness for, drought.
Incorporation of comprehensive governmental and private insurance and financial strategies into drought preparedness plans.
Applied Climate Sciences
School of Natural Resources

43. National Drought Policy Goals
Recognition of a safety net of emergency relief based on sound stewardship of natural resources and self-help at diverse governance levels.
Coordination of drought programmes and response in an effective, effi­cient and customer-oriented manner.
Applied Climate Sciences
School of Natural Resources

44. Resources Available
Expert meeting to develop a compendium of best practices on national drought policy
Promoting standard approaches to Vulnerability and Impact Assessments
Implementing effective Drought Monitoring and Early Warning Systems
Enhancing Preparedness and Mitigation Actions
Implementing Emergency Response and Relief measures that reinforce National Drought Policy
Understanding the Cost of Inaction.
Applied Climate Sciences
School of Natural Resources

45. HMNDP Plenary Sessions
Drought monitoring, early warning and information systems
Drought prediction and predictability
Drought vulnerability and impact assessment
Enhancing drought preparedness and mitigation
Planning for appropriate response and relief within the framework of National Drought Policy
Constructing a framework for National Drought Policy: The way forward
Applied Climate Sciences
School of Natural Resources

46. Takeaway Messages
Climate is changing—climate state and climate variability.
Extreme climate events are increasing in frequency globally, managing impacts critically important.
Time is NOW to change the paradigm from crisis to drought risk management.
Time is NOW for all drought-prone nations to adopt appropriate drought policies that will reduce the impacts of future drought episodes through risk-based management.

47. Thanks for your attention!
Contact Information:
School of Natural Resources
University of Nebraska-Lincoln
Applied Climate Sciences
School of Natural Resources