1. New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Fläche f. Logo 1 Exploring future flood management: a comparison of scenarios from literature and stakeholder perspectives Tom Raadgever, Gert Becker Paper submitted for presentation at the International Symposium on Flood Defence, 6-8 May 2008, Toronto Water Research Centre Delft

2. New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Fläche f. Logo 2 Why use scenarios? Water Research Centre Delft 2050 2008  Prediction  Exploration  Strategic planning  By whom?  For whom? Introduction – Scenarios from literature – Perspectives – Comparison - Discussion

3. New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Fläche f. Logo 3 How to develop scenarios? Water Research Centre Delft  Using ‘archetypes’ from literature  Based on stakeholder perspectives  Do it yourself  Do it in collaboration Introduction – Scenarios from literature – Perspectives – Comparison - Discussion

4. New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Fläche f. Logo 4 Flood management Rhine Introduction – Scenarios from literature – Perspectives – Comparison - Discussion

5. New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Fläche f. Logo 5 Scenarios from literature Water Research Centre Delft Governance Globalization Values Self-interest, Efficiency IPCC-SRES: A1 WLO: Global economy Foresight: World Markets Market (MA) IPCC-SRES: B1 WLO: Strong Europe Foresight: Global Sustainability EU Solidarity, Equity IPCC-SRES: A2 WLO: Transatlantic Market Foresight: National Enterprise National Identity (NI) IPCC-SRES: B2 WLO: Regional communities Foresight: Local Stewardship Regional Sustainability (RS) Regionalization Introduction – Scenarios from literature – Perspectives – Comparison - Discussion

6. New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Fläche f. Logo 6 Water Research Centre Delft Market (MA)EUNationaI Identity (NI)Regional Sustainab. (RS) Developments in flood prone areas Weak authorities, little regulation EU Directives and funds Long-term strategies Agricultural goals Little regulation Ad hoc reactions Social and ecological goals Public participation Dike heightening (urban area) Flood warning Insurance Holding back water Flood warning General insurance Dike heightening Compartments No new dikes Education Compensation funds Introduction – Scenarios from literature – Perspectives – Comparison - Discussion Autonomous developments and strategies

7. New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Fläche f. Logo 7 Elicitation stakeholder perspectives Water Research Centre Delft  Interviews, literature  46 statements  Online Q sorting questionnaire  47 respondents  Factor analysis  shared perspectives  Detailed information: HESS-D paper (Raadgever et al 2008) Introduction – Scenarios from literature – Perspectives – Comparison - Discussion

8. New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Fläche f. Logo 8 Shared perspectives (factors) A.‘Anticipation and institutions’ –Increasing risk  fast action –Institutional measures B.‘Space for flooding’ –Spatial pressure  fast action –Damage reduction: controlled flooding C.‘Knowledge and engineering’ –Technological improvements –Dikes & damage reduction: norm differentiation Water Research Centre Delft Introduction – Scenarios from literature – Perspectives – Comparison - Discussion

9. New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Fläche f. Logo 9 Comparison: methodology  19 common indicators  4 score categories, qualitatively described  Scoring based on storylines/data & Q statement scores  Identify ‘best matches’ –Minimising quadratic differences –Minimising differences on 2 dimensions –Autonomous developments and strategies seperately Water Research Centre Delft Introduction – Scenarios from literature – Perspectives – Comparison - Discussion

10. New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Fläche f. Logo 10 Scores for indicators: examples Water Research Centre Delft Indicators (selection) Scenarios from literature Perspectives MAEUNIRSABC Developments in flood prone areas42313.7 3 Active anticipation in management2422432 Dikes, dams41.53 114 Legal restrictions (spatial/building)1.54 3243 Introduction – Scenarios from literature – Perspectives – Comparison - Discussion

11. New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Fläche f. Logo 11 Best matches: autonomous developments  Quadratic differences: –A, B and C match best with EU –2nd best: NI, RS, MA  2 axes: –A, B and EU –C and NI / MA Water Research Centre Delft Introduction – Scenarios from literature – Perspectives – Comparison - Discussion

12. New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Fläche f. Logo 12 Best matches: strategies  Quadratic differences: –A and EU –B / C and RS –Second best matches: RS, EU, NI  2 axes problematic Water Research Centre Delft Introduction – Scenarios from literature – Perspectives – Comparison - Discussion

13. New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Fläche f. Logo 13 Discussion Water Research Centre Delft  Inconsistency among perspectives –different expected feed-back mechanisms –different local interpretations of global effects –different values and interests influencing expectations  Link autonomous developments and strategies ambiguous Introduction – Scenarios from literature – Perspectives – Comparison - Discussion

14. New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Fläche f. Logo 14 Strenghts of scenario development methods Water Research Centre Delft Introduction – Scenarios from literature – Perspectives – Comparison - Discussion Scenarios from literatureStakeholder perspectives - Consistent set - Strong variety of futures - Grounded in social and institutional science - Covers many developments - Availability models, quantitative data, maps - (Perceived) relevance - Stakeholder ownership - Better understanding - Easier to relate - Social learning

15. New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Fläche f. Logo 15 Shared perspectives A.‘Anticipation and institutions’ B.‘Space for flooding’ C.‘Knowledge and engineering’ Water Research Centre Delft FactorN GOV N SCI N SOC N DE N NL N TOTAL Determining factor A9639918 Determining factor B1019211 Determining factor C24177 Total2110518 36

16. New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Fläche f. Logo 16 Groups of respondents Water Research Centre Delft Period of Q sorting AddressedResponses German-Dutch Working Group on Flood Management Sep ’06177 Other interviewees & water management scientists Sep ‘06 – Feb ‘073013 Union of Dutch River Municipalities (VNR) Sep ‘06 – Feb ‘07456 Hochwassernotgemeinschaft Rhein (Local governments, citizens and businesses) Sep ‘06 – Feb ‘078110 Participants 2 nd workshop, including upstream Bundesländer Apr ’07106 International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine (ICPR), Working Group on Flood Management + Observers Sep ’07 – Oct ‘07305