1. Recent progress since HelsinkiRecent progress since Helsinki Plans for the next reporting phasePlans for the next reporting phase Expected contributions to the deliverables and milestones in the DIPExpected contributions to the deliverables and milestones in the DIP R. Ferrise, M. Moriondo and M. Bindi DISAT CONTRIBUTION ENSEMBLES General Assembly PRAGUE, 12-16 NOVEMBER 2007 PRAGUE, 12-16 NOVEMBER 2007

2. Redefine the method to fix durum wheat critical thresholds of impact, i.e. yield cumulative distribution from baseline climate (1975-2005)Redefine the method to fix durum wheat critical thresholds of impact, i.e. yield cumulative distribution from baseline climate (1975-2005) Recent progress since Helsinki Complete the procedure for generating maps of risk probabilities, for durum wheat, over the Mediterranean BasinComplete the procedure for generating maps of risk probabilities, for durum wheat, over the Mediterranean Basin Definite the methodology to reproduce suitable areas for olive tree potential cultivationDefinite the methodology to reproduce suitable areas for olive tree potential cultivation Test an olive model for simulating development phasesTest an olive model for simulating development phases

3. Adapt the methodology to reproduce olive tree potential cultivation area for ENSEMBLES probabilistic assessmentsAdapt the methodology to reproduce olive tree potential cultivation area for ENSEMBLES probabilistic assessments Complete the testing of olive model for simulating development phasesComplete the testing of olive model for simulating development phases Test a simple olive model for simulating olive and oil potential productivity (Villalobos et al., 2006)Test a simple olive model for simulating olive and oil potential productivity (Villalobos et al., 2006) Define the procedure for generating maps of risk probabilities for olive and grapevineDefine the procedure for generating maps of risk probabilities for olive and grapevine Plans for the next reporting phase

4. Deliverables –D6.13: Methodological report on the linking of preliminary probabilistic projections from the Ensemble Prediction System to impact models. Month 42 (Feb. 2008) –D6.14: Joint WP 6.2 paper on the use of probabilistic climate projections in assessing the risk of impacts in Europe. Month 54 (Feb. 2009) –D6.15 Assessing the uncertainty in projected changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the following sectors: health, forestry, flood risk, property damage, agriculture. Month 48 (Aug. 2008) –D6.16: Joint WP 6.2 paper: Impacts of projected changes in climate extremes over Europe to 2100: a review of key sectors. Month 54 (Feb. 2009) –D6.19 Report on the assessment of changes in regional weather and climate and their impacts in East Mediterranean. Month 46 with RT2B.3 (Jun. 2008) Milestones –M6.14: Completion of preliminary probabilistic assessments of climate change impacts using calibrated impact models: Month 42 (Feb. 2008) –M6.4: Completion of probabilistic assessments of climate change impacts, and impacts at seasonal to decadal timescales for the core activities: crops, water resources, forests, energy, insurance and human health. (WP6.2 and 6.3). Month 48 (Aug. 2008) Expected contributions to Ds and Ms