1. Prince William County Population Growth & Demographics
October 2016
Brian Engelmann, Ph.D.
Demographer
Department of Information Technology
Geographic Information Systems (GIS) Division

2. Historical Perspective
The land now known as Prince William County was home to the Anacostan, Doeg, Iroquois, and Piscataway Indians.
2,000 square mile area named “Prince William County” designated in 1730
PWC was Northern VA: VA General Assembly reduced the county’s size during estab. of Fairfax County in 1742 and Fauquier in 1759.
Dumfries experienced initial development due to Tobacco Inspection Station: PWC was a larger Tobacco exporter than NYC in 1763.
Prior to Civil War, the county’s population reached 11,000.
Before the Civil War, the population of Prince William County reached 11,000 and the African American population was 43.4 percent. Many African Americans in Virginia at this time were free from slavery and indentured servitude.
Virginia legislators passed a law in 1782 permitting the freeing of slaves, however, colonies further south did not participate in similar legislation.
Haymarket emerged as a population center in 1799, with Occoquan following in 1804 and Brentsville in The County thrived through the early and mid 1800’s. The railroad era began in Virginia around 1811 and in 1851 the railroad reached Manassas
Prince William County (2012). FY 2012 Budget: The History of Prince William County. Retrieved from

3. Historical Perspective
Virginia railroad reached Manassas in 1851, which brought a new form of shipping to the county.
Manassas became a town in 1873 and became the County Seat in 1892.
Manassas and Manassas Park became incorporated cities in 1975.
Residential developments, business expansion, and proximity to the nation’s capital has spurred rapid population growth beginning in the 1960s
1960 PWC population: 50,164
1990 PWC population: 215,686
Manassas became a town in 1873 and In 1892 Manassas became the County Seat for Prince William.
Grand manors and local businesses blighted during the War were replaced by modern inventions and post war architecture.
The railroad was reconstructed and expanded westward. Education became more important and schools sprung up - almost overnight. Ironically, a former Union Army Officer, George Carr Round, relocated to Manassas and helped to build its first public school
Eastern College attracted students from over 22 states and 2 foreign countries. Eastern was transformed into a military academy and later closed in Other academies and military schools opened in the area in the early 1900’s. The ultimate military training academy of a sort was founded on a peninsula southwest of the Town of Occoquan, on the Quantico River in The Quantico Marine Base became an official training facility for the Navy before World War I, and was one of the first Marine training centers not housed on a Naval base. The Town of Quantico, surrounded by the training center, was incorporated in 1927
For 277 years, Prince William County Government has exercised local governing powers granted by the Virginia General Assembly. Since 1972, Prince William County has had the County Executive form of government. Under this form of government, an eight member Board of County Supervisors has full power to determine the policies covering the financial and business affairs of the County government.
Prince William County (2012). FY 2012 Budget: The History of Prince William County. Retrieved from

4. Demographics Total Population of PWC since 1790
Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Minnesota Population Center. National Historical Geographic Information System: Version 2.0. Minneapolis, MN: University of Minnesota 2011; Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments.

5. Projections 2016 Q2 PWC Estimate: 434,183 Orange Line:
Logarithmic Growth
Blue Line:
Weldon Cooper Center Projections
Gray Line:
Linear Growth Model
Other Estimates:
-Weldon Cooper Center:
443,463 (2015)
-PWC Econ Development (Applied Geographic Solutions, 2016):
453,761 (2016)
650,000 Q3
U.S. Census Bureau; Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments; Prince William County GIS Division
CHART GENERATED: OCTOBER 2016

6. Population Growth Green Area = Land
Purple Lines = Magisterial Districts
Blue Area =
Water Bodies
Deep Orange = Housing Units
Hatched Area = Quantico Marine Core Base
U.S. Census Bureau; Prince William County GIS Division

7. Population Density
U.S. Census Bureau; Prince William County GIS Division

8. Population Growth | Single-Family Detached | Mobile Home Park
| Single-Family Attached
| Multi Family-Attached
Other green area = rural & wooded
U.S. Census Bureau; Prince William County GIS Division

9. Historical Population Totals
Demographic Change
Historical Population Totals
Population
Gain/Loss
% Change
1790
11,615
1800
12,733
1,118
9.63%
1810
11,311
-1,422
-11.17%
1820
9,419
-1,892
-16.73%
1830
9,330
-89
-0.94%
1840
8,144
-1,186
-12.71%
1850
8,129
-15
-0.18%
1860
8,565
436
5.36%
1870
7,504
-1,061
-12.39%
1880
9,180
1,676
22.33%
1890
9,805
625
6.81%
1900
11,112
1,307
13.33%
1910
12,026
914
8.23%
1920
13,660
1,634
13.59%
1930
13,951
291
2.13%
1940
17,738
3,787
27.15%
1950
22,612
4,874
27.48%
1960
50,164
27,552
121.85%
1970
111,102
60,938
121.48%
1980
144,703
33,601
30.24%
1990
215,686
70,983
49.05%
2000
280,813
65,127
30.20%
2010
402,002
121,189
43.16%
2015
451,721
49,719
12.37%
Housing Units
1980
46,490
1990
74,759
2000
98,052
2010
137,115
2015
145,855
Median Age
1980
25.9
1990
29.1
2000
31.9
2010
33.5
2015
34.6
White Population
1980
1990
2000
2010
2015
89.11%
83.32%
68.93%
57.81%
57.15%
U.S. Census Bureau; Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments; Minnesota Population Center. National Historical Geographic Information System: Version 2.0. Minneapolis, MN: University of Minnesota 2011.

10. Build-Out
Analysis
A build-out analysis shows the maximum allowable future development within a locality. Such an analysis does not show the ideal or preferred conditions but provides an assessment of the current zoning districts, long-range land use of undeveloped lots, and potential redevelopment areas.
The County’s geographic information system (GIS) has been used to create layers and tables to monitor different types of development within the County at a parcel or project level. Using GIS, the Planning Office can track areas that are developed, developing, or undevelopable such as conserved or protected lands, publicly owned lands, parks, cultural resources, etc. These layers are compared to determine remaining and future growth capacity.
This build-out analysis is prepared annually by the Planning Office. Each update is based on occupancy permits, rezonings, special-use permits, and comprehensive plan amendments that have been issued or approved during the year. The data provided in this report show the quantity of residential units built and an approximation of units yet to be built, commonly referred to as the “pipeline”
The six component areas of the Build-Out Analysis are the developed area, build-out area, residential inventory, non-residential inventory, revitalization areas, and the rural area.
GIS LAYERS USED:
6 PRIMARY LAYER POLYGONS
Developed Area
Build-Out Area (Undeveloped)
Residential Inventory
Non-Residential Inventory
Revitalization Areas (Under Developed)
Rural Area
PREMISE POINTS AND PARCELS
Occupancy permits and existing square footage are linked.
ZONING
Approved units and square feet are linked.
LONG-RANGE LAND USE
Allowable units and square feet are linked.
USE PERMITS
Permits are evaluated for residential units and approved square feet.
PUBLIC FACILITIES
Treated as developed land and removed from other layers.
AERIAL PHOTOGRAPHY

11. Build-Out Capacities RESIDENTIAL BUILD-OUT TOTAL NON-RESIDENTIAL TOTAL
181,983 housing units.
NON-RESIDENTIAL TOTAL
148,800,000 square feet
RESIDENTIAL PIPELINE
36,273 housing units

12. Build-Out
Analysis
The Build-Out Analysis shows that Prince William County has capacity for 36,273 additional residential dwelling units as shown in the table.
Adding this to the 145,640 units that existed as of December 2014 brings the residential build-out to 181,913 units.
There is also a potential for 84.3 million non-residential square feet of gross floor area to be built. Adding this to the 64.5 million square feet of gross floor area already built brings the total to million non-residential square feet as shown in table 2 (page 6). The information generated for the Build-Out Analysis helps to provide the data and methodology used by staff to arrive at these conclusions.

13. In Context PWC’s Total Population as a Percentage of Larger Entities:
For more Prince William County demographic information, visit:
Metropolitan Washington COG Region:
8.11%
State of Virginia:
5.54%
U.S. Census Bureau; Prince William County GIS Division