1. Population Geography
Terms and Concepts

2. Geographic Models – Just like with human models, always remember geographic models are just models – not reality

3. GEOGRAPHIC MODELS First, models are JUST models
Models are a way of showing geographic phenomena
Discuss the purpose of the model. What does the model do?
Basic assumptions of the model
Description and analysis of the model (e.g., zones, transitions, activities in certain places)
Usefulness and/or applications of the model

4. Demographic Transition Model – page 44 Traditional View http://www

5. Demographic Transition Model – page 44 Updated View https://www

6. Demographic Transition http://envirosci

7. Could we call the DTM stages…?
Stage 1 – The no one lives here anymore stage
Stage 2 – The sanitation and medical stage
Stage 3 – The all about girls stage
Stage 4 – The rich kids stage
Stage 5 – The no more kids stage
Remember – the DTM is about the transition process, not just trying to fit a country here or there.
National population statistics may not reveal regional variations within individual countries. What concept is demonstrated by this??
SCALE
British Influence on India

8. Now, let’s apply the model
Questions for the DTM
Stage(s)
Descriptor
Billy loses his job as a grave digger
Parents start to think more about family planning
Children are warmer in bed at night because they have more brothers and sisters
There are more Golden Anniversaries
Large percentage of women never have a child
A mother sobs over the grave of her last six children who died in a typhoid epidemic
A lot more houses are being built
The Public Health Inspector smiles as the building of sewers are completed
Fewer children share a bedroom
Grandparents are very rare
A child is born and will have no brothers/sisters, no aunts/uncles, no cousins

9. Let’s sum up the Demographic Transition

10. Stage 5 of the Demographic Transition??
Negative Pop. Growth:
Sweden, Denmark, Russia, Germany are just a few examples
Italy and Spain – part of each country with TFRs (Total Fertility Rate) of 0.8% (Bologna, Italy)
Why is this significant?
What about the United States TFR?
Highest TFR state in the US? Why?
Emigration and Immigration are also factors in population growth/decline.
Think this is not a real issue? What does NEGATIVE POP. GROWTH look like?
SINGAPORE –
DENMARK –

11. Population Dynamics Life Expectancy – page 49
Natural Increase – difference between number of births and the number of deaths in specific period. IMPORTANT – Gains and losses through migration are not counted in RNI (Rate of Natural Increase)
"r" is variously referred to as the "rate of natural increase" or the "per capita rate of increase" of the population, or as the "rate of net reproduction per individual."
It is essentially the probability that any individual in the population will give birth during the time interval (usually year), discounted for their probability of dying.
Crude Birth Rate (CBR) - # live births per year per 1000 population
Crude Death Rate (CDR) - # deaths per year per 1000 pop.
Infant Mortality - # deaths per 1000 before 1st birthday – map 58-59 
Child Mortality - # deaths per 1000 before 5th birthday
What do these two numbers tell us?
Compare and Contrast these two.
What gender issues are there with IM and CM?
Life Expectancy – page 49
Life Expectancy Map – page 51

12. Population Dynamics
Total Fertility Rate (TFR) - # of children born to women of child-bearing age 
Replacement Rate – 2.1 babies per woman
Why does it have to be 2.1 to replace a population
IMR and CMR – not all kids make it to adulthood
Total Fertility Rate – remember, the births/woman/lifetime
6-7 children in the periphery children in the core
China:
REVIEW - Aside from artificial birth control, what are some factors which could reduce TFRs?
Late marriage, education of women, suffrage, women’s rights, political access/power, economic access, social access

13. Get your phones, power them up for math
r = b-d
Crude Death Rate – gross # of deaths
Crude Birth Rate – gross # of births
CBR – CDR = RNI
These are expressed per 1,000 population
Current global CBR is 21/1,000
Current global CDR Is 9/1,000
So, that equals a natural growth rate of ___ 12/1,000
Or, expressed in a percentage = a global growth of 1.2% per year
The word “percent” means per So, move the decimal over one place on each number and you get 1.2 per 100 or 1.2%!

14. Given the world has approximately 7
Given the world has approximately 7.3 billion people, how many will be added this year?
Math Shortcut – What is 10% of 7,300,000,000 people?
Answer – 730,000,000 people
What is 10% of 730,000,000?
( Hint: 10% of 10% = 1%)
Answer – 73,000,000 people
So, about how many people would 1.2% (global RNI) be?
Math is - 7,300,000,000 x .12 = 87,600,000 people
Answer – the world gains about 8.76 Million people EVERY YEAR with a global RNI of 1.2%
So, 1.2% is a pretty big number, huh?!?

15. Other Ways of Figuring Demographic Change
Births + In Migration
- Deaths + Out Migration
Total Population *Births, Deaths, and Migrations act as variables
TP = OP + B – D + I – E
TP – Total Pop.
OP – Original Pop.
B – Births
D – Deaths
I – Immigration (In)
E – Emigration (Out)

16. DEMOGRAPHIC MOMENTUM
Demographic Momentum - tendency for growing populations to continue growing after a fertility decline because of their young age distribution. In other words, fertility is reduced significantly – but the population continues to grow – many times for a generation or more.
RNI Population Increase/year
growth B people M increase
growth B people M increase
growth B people M increase
TFRs s s
INDIA ……………… AFRICA 2.4……………… S. AMERICA 3.0………………..1.7
BRAZIL ………………..1.5
CHINA ………...……..1.7
IRAN ………..………2.5
KENYA ………………..5.0
What is the KEY NUMBER??!!!

17. The arithmetic of doubling time and demographic momentum
The most important video you will ever see (according to YouTube)
Mathematics of population, doubling time, percentages and growth

18. Demographic Momentum and Doubling Time
DOUBLING TIME – time required for a population to double in size –
RNI – Rate Nat. Increase
1% = 70 years
2% = 35 years
3% = 23 years
4% = 18 years
Factors of Growth – Steady Growth for 70 Years
Growth Rate/Year Factor
1% 2=2
2% 2x2 = 4
3% 2x2x2 = 8
4% 2x2x2x2 = 16
5% 2x2x2x2x2 = 32
6% 2x2x2x2x2x2 = 64
7% 2x2x2x2x2x2x2 = 128
So, is 4, 5, 6 or 7% a high growth rate? What did Dr. Bartlett say?
Can you describe DEMOGRAPHIC MOMENTUM now?

19. Malthus – An examination of Global Population History and Dynamics
POPULATION EXPLOSION
TIME GLOBAL POP. DOUBLING TIME
2000 years ago 250 million NA
million years
billion years
billion years
billion 45years
Mid-1980s billion 39 years
2000s 6 billion 51 years
Examples to Remember:
Growth DT = 70/ RNI
10% years
2% years
1.8% years
0.7% years

20. THOMAS MALTHUS and ESTER BOSERUP
Who cares about a British economist from 1798?
Or a woman from Denmark?
Apparently, the APHG exam writers do…

21. 2011 AP® HUMAN GEOGRAPHY FREE-RESPONSE QUESTION 2
2. In 1798 Thomas Robert Malthus published An Essay on the Principle of Population in which he argued that population growth will inevitably outpace food production, resulting in widespread famine.
A. Identify and explain TWO reasons why some geographers today believe Malthus’ theory can be used to predict future population issues.
B. Identify and explain TWO reasons why some geographers today believe Malthus’ theory cannot be used to predict future population issues.
British economist
1798 essay
Geometric vs. Arithmetic Rates

22. Malthus continued & some Boserup
Pretend you are Thomas Malthus in What did he see as he looked out his London window in 1798?
LINEAR (arithmetic) GROWTH – agriculture increases in a uniform amount during equal time periods (money example)
EXPONENTIAL (geometric) GROWTH – population increases are compounded on top of one another
Population and Subsistence - Population would eventually overtake means to produce food
Why was Malthus wrong? He probably wasn’t until…
Green Revolution – Mechanization, Hybridization, Fossil Fuels, Large-Scale
Technology – Genetic engineering
Ester Boserup countered Malthus
She said subsistence farmers respond to consumption – that is, local farmers know how much they have and how much they need

23. Malthus – Population and Food Production – This is why he crapped his pants
Linear growth of Food production
Geometric growth of population

24. Comparing Malthus and Boserup http://ecotope

25. Was Malthus wrong? Short article on the subject for you to read

26. Neo-Malthusians What is a Neo-Malthusian?
Neo-Malthusians believe that Malthus was right – even today
Paul Ehrlich is the most famous
Neo-Malthusians today mostly focus on the damage done to the environment by having too many people
Particularly the role wealthy countries of the world in environmental damage to the environment
Population Bomb video

27. Other Population Terms
CONTROLLING POPULATION
Pronatal
Antinatal
Antinatal Technology
Contraceptive film
Pills
Condom (male and female)
IUD
Injections (e.g., Depo Provera)
Norplants
Diaphragm
Morning-after pill
Sponges
Patch
Tubal Ligation
Vasectomy
Abortion

28. DEPENDENCY RATIO 15 or 25 and under Over 65 or 60
Who is in the middle?
15-64
What are some of the implications of too few people in the middle of these two cohorts?
Where is this occurring?
Japan, China, US? Degrees of the issues?

29. GENDER or SEX RATIOS http://www.feministtimes.com/son-preference/
Expressed as a ratio
125:100 in a region of India
117:100 in a region of China
In China these men are called “Bare Branches”
Up to 70 million Bare Branches in China
What do these numbers mean?
What are the ramifications of these numbers?
What are two possible solutions to get these men a bride?
Look up some of these sex ratio numbers by country. Pattern?
China and gender ratios – video 2 min.

30. SON PREFERENCE Photo – page 42 in your text
Son preference – Why is this so important in India?
Use of ultrasound technology in India and China
Female Infanticide

33. http://www. hindustantimes

34. CHINA’S DECISION-MAKING ON IMPLEMENTING THE ONE CHILD POLICY
2 Billion Starvation- Fight for Food Children/Family
1.5 Billion Severe Hardship Children/Family
1.5 Billion Poverty Children/Family
1 Billion All Fed and Housed Children/Family
500 Million Doubled Living Standard Child/Family

35. Ways China reduced the number of births
BIRTH CONTROL – mainly via “coil” or intrauterine device (IUD), abortions also widely used
Why would the Chinese rely primarily on IUDs to control population?
ONE-CHILD FAMILIES
LATE MARRIAGE
What benefits can the one-child family expect of this policy?
Lower taxes and money from government for each child
Education, child care, health care for the child for life
Many privileges other citizens did not receive
When are 2nd births acceptable?
Physical/Mental defect in child
Death of child
Death of spouse
Divorce
How might the One Child Policy change/alter the SOCIAL FABRIC of China?
“Little Emperors”

36. CHINA - State-sponsored population policies – pp
CHINA - State-sponsored population policies – pp and photo on page 65 of your text

37. By the late 1970s, China was facing starvation

38. Why has having a son in China been so important. How has (or has it
Why has having a son in China been so important? How has (or has it?) this changed now?

39. India http://faculty.lasierra.edu/~sswamina/

40. China’s and India’s populations

41. Population Policies Government policies to control population
Find examples (not including India and China) where governments tried to control population growth
Government policies to expand the population
Find examples where governments tried to expand, or encourage, population growth

43. Limits on Population Growth
Some researchers have indicated the world could support as many as 100 billion people
What and who would have to change for Earth to support such numbers?
Disease
Famine (political, climate, food source disease)
Technology

44. Hans can help!!!! For homework, go to Moodle or Google: Hans Rosling and The Good News of the Decade
At home watch this 15 minute video
Write a one paragraph reflection (at least 6-8 complete sentences in your own words)
your paragraph to me by Monday, September 2h by 9:00 pm
ml?utm_source=newsletter_weekly_ &utm_campaign=newsletter_weekly&utm_medium=

45.
What is your ecological footprint? How many Earths do we need if we all lived like you?

46. Hans Rosling - Demographic Momentum
Demographic Momentum – 5 min.