1. OPTIMA INCO-MPC Management Board Meeting, April 1/2 2005 Izmir
DDr. Kurt Fedra ESS GmbH, Austria
Environmental Software & Services A-2352 Gumpoldskirchen

2. description of the problems and possible solutions.
WP03: Modelling
MODELS provide a
Formal
Structured
Quantitative
description of the problems and possible solutions.

3. WP03: Modelling
WP1: identifies problem issues, develops a structure for the description of the cases, identifies data needs and availability, constraints;
WP2 analyzes perceptions and preferences, institutional or regulatory frameworks, plausible socio-economic developments;
WP4 compiles the set of ALTERNATIVE WATER TECHNOLOGIES that can be used;
WP5 looks into LAND USE change as one of the major driving forces, consistent with WP 2.

4. WP03: Modelling Complete Consistent Plausible
WP1, 2, 4 and 5 develop the boundary conditions and specifications for
Complete
Consistent
Plausible
Set of SCENARIOS for simulation modelling and optimization.

5. WP03: Modeling
WaterWare dynamic water resources model (daily, annual)  optimization
Embedded models:
RRM rainfall-runoff model for subcatchments (incl. erosion estimates) with automatic calibration
STREAM water quality model
Related model (optional):
LUC dynamic land use change model

6. WP 3: Modelling
Models provide estimates for
Economic efficiency
Environmental compatibility
Equity (intra- and intergenerational)

7. WP03: Modelling LUC: land use change model
Discrete state (LUC) transition model
Markov chain with stochastic transition probabilities
Rule-based constraints and TP adjustments
Temporal resolution: year, scope: decades (20-50 years)
Spatial resolution: ha to km2
Resource use and pollution as land-use specific output;
Possibility for external, global driving forces

8. First-order logic RULES
WP03: LUC Modelling
Global/local adjustments of the transition probabilities expressed as
First-order logic RULES
in relative terms (INCREASE, DECREASE in %).

12. WP03: LUC Modelling Interactive editors for Land use classes
Transition probabilities
Modifying rules
Class specific resource needs/outputs
are available on-line together with the viewer (player for animated results)
Links from will be moved to

14. WP03: LUC Modelling Derived values per unit area, class specific:
Water consumption
Waste water generated
Energy use
Solid waste production
OTHERS ??

16. WP03: Modelling LUC EXTENSIONS:
Include transportation network in rules (connectivity)
Other external variables (specified as time series)
More LUC specific coefficients and processes (employment, value added, etc)

17. Hypothesis testing WP03: Modelling LUC OBJECTIVES:
Developing CONSISTENT scenarios with high explanatory value that can also be used directly in the rainfall-runoff basin water budget model
Independent estimate on water budgets

18. WP03: Modelling RRM: rainfall-runoff model Dynamic, daily time step
Uses daily rainfall and temperature
Major basin characteristic: LAND USE (summarized from LUC scenarios ??)
Estimates runoff and dynamic water budget for ungaged basins, provides input for WRM start nodes (catchment)

20. WP03: RRM Modelling FROM  TO (period) CMIN < FEATURE < CMAX
Includes automatic calibration with runoff observation data
Method: Monte Carlo, evolutionary programming;
Extract reliable features (Gestalt) from observations, define as constraints on model behavior,
FROM  TO (period)
CMIN < FEATURE < CMAX
FEATURES: min, max, avg, total, values

23. WP03: WR Modelling WRM: water resources model Dynamic, daily time step
Topology of NODES and REACHES
Demand nodes (cities, irrigation, industry, tourism)
Estimates dynamic water budget, supply/demand, reliability of supply
Complete on-line implementation with editors

24. WP03: Modelling User/scenario management:
User authentication by name and password (monitored … )
User can see and copy ALL scenarios, edit/delete only their own !
TEST scenarios installed as EXAMPLES to demonstrate features implemented
On-line manual pages

26. WP03: Modelling Model structure:
Topology (network) of NODES, connected by REACHES;
NODES represent functional OBJECTS in the basin:
Sub-catchments, well(s) fields, springs
Reservoirs, structures
Water demand: cities, irrigation districts, industries, environmental uses (wetlands, minimum flow)

27. WP03: Modelling Model structure:
Topology (network) of NODES, connected by REACHES:
Represent natural and man-made channels, canals, pipelines that transfer (route) water between NODES.
Networks include:
Diversions (splitting the flow)
Confluences (merging flow)

30. Water demand NODES recycling Costs of supply Intake Benefits of use
Consumptive use
Costs
of supply
Benefits
of use
Water demand and use:
domestic,
agricultural,
industrial
Intake
quality constraint, conveyance loss
return flow
(pollution)
recycling
losses

31. WP03: Modelling DEMAND NODE is defined by
Its type (domestic, industrial, agricultural)
Its connectivity (upstream, downstream, aquifer)
Its water demand (time series)
Conveiance losses (evaporation, seepage)
Consumptive use fraction, resulting in
return flow, and its losses
Quality changes (pollution)
Costs of supply – Benefits of use

34. WP03: Modelling WRM EXTENSIONS:
Full groundwater coupling, single or multi-cell aquifers with Darcy-flow coupling, in/exfiltration for reaches
Quality integration (return flow)
Economic analysis:
Water efficiency; added value/unit water
Cost-benefit analysis, requires, per node:
Investment, lifetime, OMR, discount rate

35. WP03: Modelling
Full groundwater coupling, single or multi-cell aquifers with Darcy-flow coupling, in/exfiltration for reaches
Every node is optionally connected to an AQUIFER OBJECT:
Extracting water from it (wells, infiltration (lateral inflow, baseflow contribution) into reaches, depending on relative levels
Returning water to it: seepage losses, explicit recharge

36. WP03: Modeling Water Quality Modeling : STREAM
Uses WRM networks and results (flow scenarios) and dedicated editor;
Dynamic (daily) BOD/DO, plus an arbitrary pollutant (conservative or first order decay)
Input at start nodes and demand nodes:
Concentration TS
Pollutant load TS
Concentration as a piecewise linear function of flow
Overall mass budget and compliance
Dynamic Output at control nodes

37. WP03: Modeling Water Quality Modeling : STREAM
Uses WRM networks and results (flow scenarios) and dedicated editor;
Dynamic (daily) BOD/DO, plus an arbitrary pollutant (conservative or first order decay)
Input at start nodes and demand nodes:
Concentration TS
Pollutant load TS
Concentration as a piecewise linear function of flow
Overall mass budget and compliance
Dynamic Output at control nodes

38. Model applications are THE central part of the case studies !!!
WP5-9: Modelling
REMEMBER:
Model applications are THE central part of the case studies !!!
All data compilation in view of model input data requirements

39. WP03: Model steps
Define the domain or system boundaries (river basin including any transfers !)
Describe all important OBJECTS:
Inputs = sub-catchments, wells, springs, transfers, desalination, Aquifers
Demands: cities, tourist resorts, industries, agriculture (irrigated)
Structures: reservoirs
Define NETWORK: link nodes through reaches (connectivity)

40. WP03: Model steps Compile and edit the DATA for the NODES and REACHES:
Time series of flow, pumping, water demand, diversion, reservoir release as rules or explicit time series,
Loss coefficients
Consumptive use fractions,
Costs (investment, OMR, and benefits per units water supplied/used;
Edit one or more scenarios, document
RUN the model, evaluate runs.

41. WP03: OPTMIZATION steps Define CRITERIA, sort into
OBJECTIVES (min/max) and
CONSTRAINTS (inequalities),
set numerical values, symbolic targets;
RUN the optimization model on-line (that may take a while …)
ANALYZE results as input to WP 14, 15

42. WP03: OPTMIZATION steps
OPTIMIZATION generates sets of feasible alternatives, each optimal in some (well defined) sense;
Discrete multi-criteria methodology SELECTS a single preferred solution from that set by defining preferences and trade-offs (multi-criteria) interactively:
Users explore the decision space to learn what can be obtained, and for what price (the trade-offs) and how to approach their UTOPIA solutions.

43. Work Plan (simple version)
OPTIMIZATION (multi-criteria)
Maximize
Supply/demand ratio (by sector)
Reliability (% time, volume),
Efficiency (GRP/unit water),
Benefit/cost ratio
meeting constraints (minimum or maximum allowable levels of selected criteria),
minimizing non-linear penalty functions

44. Work Plan (simple version)
OPTIMIZATION
Maximize …. by
Choice of water technologies of different costs (investment, OMR) vs performance including structures
Different allocation strategies
Selecting criteria, setting constraints

45. Work Plan (simple version)
3. Case Studies (WP 7-13)
Run parallel
SHARE models
Use SAME structure for end user involvement, reporting

46. Work Plan (simple version)
4. Evaluation (WP 14)
Post-optimal analysis:
Analyze model decision and behavior spaces (feasible set, pareto set, preference structures, trade-offs)
Cross-correlation, sensitivity analysis
Test for criteria independence

47. MC Decision Support Reference point approach: utopia efficient point
criterion 2 A6
dominated A1 A3
better
nadir
criterion 1

48. Work Plan (simple version)
4. Evaluation (WP 15)
Comparative evaluation across case studies
Ranking by criteria, MC clustering
Discrete Multi-Criteria Optimization with end user involvement
Common patters and trends