1. Working Party / Meeting GIS for Statistics
ESPON 2013 Programme
Marjan van Herwijnen & Sandra Di Biaggio
ESPON Coordination Unit

2. Structure of the presentation
ESPON 2013:
Overview
Progress
Selected Territorial Trends and Dynamics on:
Demography
Accessibility
Lisbon Indicators

3. The ESPON 2013 Programme Role in Structural Funds 2007-2013:
Support policy development with evidence on European territorial structures, trends, perspectives and policy impacts
Mission:
Provide comparable information on territorial dynamics that can reveal territorial capital and potentials
Budget :
47 mill Euro,
34 mill. Euro from the European Commission
13 mill. Euro from 31 countries participating
(EU 27 plus Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland)
Programme structure:
5 Programme priorities

4. P 1 - Applied Research (1) First themes, 1 final, 5 ongoing:
Cities and Urban Agglomerations/Functionality and development opportunities for European competitiveness and cohesion (FOCI)
Development Opportunities in different types of Rural Areas (EDORA)
Demography and Migratory Flows affecting European regions and cities (DEMIFER)
Effects of Rising Energy Prices on Regional Competitiveness (RERISK)
Territorial Impact Assessment of Policies (TIP TAP)
Climate Change and Territorial Effects on regions and local economies (CLIMATE)

5. P1 - Applied Research (2)
11 new project themes decided in February 2010:
Attractiveness of European regions and cities for residents and visitors
European patterns of land use
Territorial cooperation in transnational areas and across internal/external borders
Accessibility at regional/local scale and patterns in Europe
Secondary growth poles in territorial development
European perspective on specific types of territories
Territorial dimension of innovation and knowledge economy
Continental territorial structures and flows (globalisation)
Territorial and Regional sensitivity of EU Directives
Services of General Interest
European Seas in Territorial Development

6. P 2 – Targeted Analyses: Use of ESPON results
The Case for Agglomeration Economies in Europe/CAEE (Manchester, Barcelona, Dublin and Lyon)
The Development of the Islands – European Islands and Cohesion Policy/EUROISLANDS (Ministry of Economy and Finance of GR plus 9 stakeholders)
Cross-Border Polycentric Metropolitan Regions/MetroBorder (Ministries in CH, LU, BE, DE & FR)
Success for Convergence Regions’ Economies/SURE (Campania Region plus regions in PO, ES and GR)
Spatial Scenarios: New Tools for Local-Regional Territories/SS-LR (Regions of Barcelona, Torino and Herault)
Territorial Diversity/TeDi (Ministries in NO, FI, CH, CY, MT, RO and SE)

7. P 2 - Targeted Analysis : Next projects
Potential of Rural Regions/PURR (Notodden municipality, Cesis District, North Yorkshire county and Wales)
Transnational Support Method for European Cooperation/ TranSMEC (North West Europe programme)
+10 new projects based on selected ideas from stakeholders (Open Call for expertise in May and September 2010)

8. P 3 - Scientific Platform and Tools
MC decision in February 2010:
Territorial Indicators/Indices
New projects for :
ESPON 2013 Database – phase II (2010)
Territorial Monitoring (2011)
Tool development in 2010:
Typology Compilation
ESPON HyperAtlas (update)
ESPON DataNavigator (update)
ESPON MapMaker
ESPON MapFinder
Map updates/Trend Analyses in 2010:
Lisbon/2020, Creative Workforce, Telecommunication

9. P 4 - Capitalisation New ESPON Website (including Map of the Month)
Territorial Observations (Lisbon/2020, Creative, IT)
First Scientific Report in September 2010
First Synthesis Report in October 2010
Workshop on ESPON Database in May 2010
Open ESPON Seminar in Alcala, Spain on 9-10 June 2010
ESPON Stakeholder Conference on Targeted Analyses in Bruxelles, September/October 2010
Workshop in October/November 2010
Transnational Networking Activities by the ESPON Contact Point Network (2 projects decided in February 2010, second call in May 2010)

10. Demography ESPON project
“Spatial effects of demographic trends and migration”
Typology based on the following demographic equation:
regional population change is a function of natural population change and net-migration
Total population change = (births – deaths) + (in-migration – out-migration)
Annual total population change is estimate as:
100*(EXP(LN(end_year/base_year)/N)-1)
So data is needed and can be found on:
total population for the years 1995, 1999, 2000 and 2005
births and deaths for all years and

11. Natural Population development 1996-1999
(annual change, exp, base year 1995)

12. Natural Population development 2001-2005
Observations :
At European level, natural population development has very small impact on the increase of the population
The spatial patterns if fairly stable when comparing both periods.
Natural population development
(annual change, exp, base year 2000)

13. Net migration development 1996-1999
Annual net migration development
(annual change, exp, base year 1995)

14. Net migration development 2001-2005
Observations :
Migration plays a key role for population growth in Europe.
Migration has counterbalanced the impact of a negative natural population development in many regions
Annual net migration development
(annual change, exp, base year 2000)

15. Typology of Population Development 1996-1999

16. Typology of Population Development 2001-2005
Observations :
Capital regions in Europe are favourable hotspots of demographic development, mainly due to in-migration.
In Eastern Europe, the immediate neighbouring regions to capital cities stand out
Within some European countries the diversity of regions in terms of population growth is significant.

17. Population development in urban and remote regions, 2001-2005
Observations :
85% of the urban regions has positive demographic development.
50% of the remote regions has positive development, most concentrated to regions in the Western part of Europe.
Most capital cities in Europe have a positive demographic development. Exceptions: some capital cities in Eastern Europe, where population increase takes place in surrounding regions.

18. Accessibility
ESPON project “Transport services and networks”
Potential accessibility describes how easy people in one region can reach people located in other regions.
So, potential accessibility is based on two elements:
(1) population in NUTS 3 regions and
(2) the effort in time to reach them. 18

19. Spatial Analysis Methods
Spatial analysis methods are based on a various forms of distance (euclidean, cost, time, …) which are generally quantitative and continuous. The official territorial divisions (NUTS) are not considered a priori as relevant and can be eventually modified or removed.
They introduced typically two kind of distances
Euclidean Distance (isotropy, homogenity)
Network accessibility (discontinuity, anisotropy)

20. ROAD Potential Accessibility
2006
Index
(EU27=100) 20

21. ROAD Potential Accessibility
EU27= 7.4%
Relative change
(in %) 21

22. AIR Potential Accessibility
2006
Index
(EU27=100) 22

23. AIR Potential Accessibility
EU27 = 7.8%
Relative change
(in %) 23

24. Observations Accessibility and economic growth are highly correlated
Accessibility has increased at European level thanks to infrastructure investment and open sky
The increase is highest for rail transport followed by air
Road access improves towards the east of the core while rail access improves westwards
The relative gains are favouring areas outside the core (pentagon) supporting territorial balance and a polycentric territorial structure
The gains relying on low-cost airlines and expansion of regional airport are more vulnerable in terms of sudden changes in destinations due to the market changes 24

25. Composite Lisbon Performance, 2006
Observations:
Regional diversity of potential contribution
Core and Northern parts contributes the most
Eastern and Mediterranean regions less performing
7 out of 14 Lisbon indicators:
(1) GDP/capita,
(2) GDP/employed person,
(3) Employment rate,
(4) Employment rate of older workers,
(5) Gross domestic expenditure on R&D
(6) Dispersion of regional unemployment rates
(7) Long-term unemployment rate.

26. Trends in composite Lisbon Performance 2000-2006
Observations:
Scattered pattern in core and regions close by
North-East Europe has increased performance
Regions in many countries performing below average

27. Progress by autumn 2010 17 Applied Research projects ongoing or final
18 Targeted Analysis ongoing
2 (of 3) major Scientific Platform projects running
5 Scientific Tools under development
5 Territorial Trend Analyses (map updates) made
(Up to) 5 Transnational Networking Activities (ECP) in motion

28. Thank you for your attention!
More information
Thank you for your attention!