Graduate labour market – the basics

Graduate labour market – the basics
Dr Charlie Ball Head of HE Intelligence Graduate Prospects

There are a lot of myths around about university and the graduate jobs market

“Everyone has a degree nowadays”
Q 2 is here

“Everyone has a degree nowadays”
39.2% of the adult population (16-64) of the UK had a degree at the end of 2018, up from 38% in 2017. 44.4% of the UK workforce has a degree or equivalent qualification, up from 43.4% in 2017. Less than half of students currently aged will ever go to university, and it’s unlikely we’ll ever see a situation where half even of a given age group goes to university. 15,769,900 with a degree or equivalent

“There aren’t any jobs for graduates”
Q 2 is here

“There aren’t any jobs for graduates”
136,000 UK graduates from 2017 were known to be in professional level jobs six months after graduating (73.9% of graduates) Annual Population Survey data showed that at the end of 2018, there were 14.8m people working in professional level jobs in the UK Or 46.1% of the workforce APS data also shows that the UK added 353,500 new professional level jobs in 2018 Q 2 is here

“If I don’t study a vocational subject, I won’t get a job”
“If I study <subject> then that is what I will have to do as a career” AND “If I don’t study a vocational subject, I won’t get a job” Q 2 is here

The Subject Question The UK has a particularly flexible skilled jobs market The majority of jobs for graduates do not specify a degree discipline and you can get them with any subject, from fine art to physics Studying eg engineering, does not mean you have to be an engineer or that you can’t get a job doing anything else (although most engineering graduates do become engineers) Degrees are designed to teach a wide range of skills as well as subject knowledge and employers understand that Q 2 is here

“Graduates only work for big business”
Q 2 is here

Graduates only work for big business or on large training schemes
Last year, 30% of graduates went to work for companies with fewer than 250 employees (37% when hospitals are removed), and one in six were with companies with fewer than 50 employees. SMEs especially important in the telecoms, arts, design, architecture, marketing/PR/advertising, sport/fitness, law, web design SME graduate employment stronger in London and south of EnglandThe proportion entering SMEs does seem to be falling, though Proportion at SMEs is falling though

“All the jobs are in London”
Q 2 is here

All the graduate jobs are in London
14.7% of the UK population lives in London 19.8% of UK graduates live in London 22.4% of graduates started their career in London. Many of those jobs were confined to a relatively small area of London. Starting salary for graduates in London was £24,991 compared to £22,399 for UK as a whole Most people – and graduates – never work in London However the graduate population does seem to be getting increasingly urban Data comes from Centre for Cities Cities Outlook 2018

And in the future….. From the Financial Times, September 17th 2018

2017 graduates after six months
Best outcomes figures since 2007 Data comes from HESA Destination of Leavers of Higher Education 2016/17

What do graduates do? 329,325 first degrees awarded to UK domiciled graduates last year. Rise of 12,635 on 2016 – up about 4% The majority were working after six months – 74.3% Unemployment was at 5.1% - lowest rate since 1988/89. Another increase in graduates going into Masters study – 2,800 more graduates going into study Number of graduates up slightly last year, employment up, unemployment down.

How were graduates working after six months?
Number of graduates up slightly last year, employment up, unemployment down.

Types of work of 2017 graduates after six months
4.5% of graduates reported having more than 1 job

Change over time 4.5% of graduates reported having more than 1 job

Where did 2017 graduates work?
Westminster 6080 Bristol 2390 Birmingham 4670 Belfast 2385 Manchester 4420 Southwark 2295 City of London 4065 Oxfordshire 2145 Greater London 3840 Sheffield 2145 Leeds 3625 Cardiff 2115 Camden 3490 Cambridgeshire 2045 Glasgow 3370 Islington 1985 Surrey 3180 Newcastle 1945 Hertfordshire 3090 Nottingham 1790 Kent 3035 West Sussex 1675 Hampshire 2725 Gloucestershire 1610 Edinburgh 2530 Leicester 1545 Tower Hamlets 2470 Essex 2465 Lancashire 2455 Liverpool 2445

Graduate mobility - 58% of graduates from 2017 went to work in the region they studied in 69% went to work in the region they were originally domiciled Only 18% of graduates went to work somewhere they were not already connected to This pattern is long-standing and mobility may even be falling, although the figures are very similar to last year’s

Graduate migration patterns
Loyals – domiciled and studied in same region and now work there as well. 45% of 2016/17 graduates Stayers – moved to another region to study and stayed there to work. 13% of 2016/17 graduates Returners – moved to another region to study and then returned home to work. 24% of 2016/17 graduates Incomers – work in a region they were neither domiciled nor studied in. 18% of 2016/17 graduates 43% of all Incomers work in London

Graduate migration groups

Scotland

Outcomes from 2016/17 In total – 1910 jobs in Sheffield, 1220 graduate, 670 south yorks, 485 graduate, 1025 Derbyshire, 720 graduate; 1115 Notts, 785 graduate; Derby 995 jobs, 735 graduate; 3945 graduate jobs last year 3210 graduate jobs last year

Types of work in Scotland
3210 graduate jobs last year

Main professional level occupations in Scotland
Nurses Civil engineers 145 Primary and nursery teaching 620 Mechanical engineers 145 Medical practitioners 610 General and niche business profs 140 Chartered and certified accountants 295 Dental practitioners 130 Programmers and software developers 275 Pharmacists 130 Marketing associate professionals 200 HR and recruitment 120 Secondary teaching 195 General and niche engineering 115 Finance analysts and advisers 180 Business sales executives 115 Welfare and housing 175 Retail managers 105 Social workers 170 Youth and community workers 100 Sports coaches, instructors 155 3210 graduate jobs last year

Where were the professional level jobs?
Glasgow 2375 Dumfries and Galloway 175 Scottish Borders 85 Edinburgh 1800 East Dunbartonshire 85 Aberdeen 685 South Ayrshire 160 Dundee 480 Inverclyde 105 East Lothian 75 North Lanarkshire 460 Angus 95 Midlothian 70 Fife 415 Moray 95 East Renfrewshire 65 South Lanarkshire 375 North Ayrshire 95 Argyll and Bute 55 Renfrewshire 310 West Dunbartonshire 90 Clackmannanshire 40 Highland 295 Western Isles 35 West Lothian 240 Shetland Islands 20 Perth and Kinross 215 Orkney Islands 20 Falkirk 215 Aberdeenshire 200 East Ayrshire 200 Stirling 195 In total, 9,845. A quarter of all graduate jobs for new FD graduates in Scotland last year were in Glasgow

Professional employment in Scotland – industries
In total – 1910 jobs in Sheffield, 1220 graduate, 670 south yorks, 485 graduate, 1025 Derbyshire, 720 graduate; 1115 Notts, 785 graduate; Derby 995 jobs, 735 graduate; 3945 graduate jobs last year 3210 graduate jobs last year

Professional employment in Scotland – major industries
Hospital activities Primary education Other human health activities 395 Government Accounting, audit, tax Engineering and consultancy Social work Computer programming Banking Other education n.e.c Tertiary education General secondary education Dental practice activities Trusts, funds and other financial vehicles 110 Information technology consultancy activities 105 Support activities for petroleum and natural gas mining 100 In total – 1910 jobs in Sheffield, 1220 graduate, 670 south yorks, 485 graduate, 1025 Derbyshire, 720 graduate; 1115 Notts, 785 graduate; Derby 995 jobs, 735 graduate; 3945 graduate jobs last year 3210 graduate jobs last year

Professional employment locally – employer size
Without hospitals, 48% of graduates started their careers locally in SMEs last year

Professional employment in Scotland – how did graduates find their job?

Subjects

2016/17 graduates from Scottish institutions

Sciences

Engineering and building

Social sciences

Arts and humanities

Business and finance

Regional

Where were the professional level jobs (council level)?
Glasgow 2375 Dumfries and Galloway 175 Scottish Borders 85 Edinburgh 1800 East Dunbartonshire 85 Aberdeen 685 South Ayrshire 160 Dundee 480 Inverclyde 105 East Lothian 75 North Lanarkshire 460 Angus 95 Midlothian 70 Fife 415 Moray 95 East Renfrewshire 65 South Lanarkshire 375 North Ayrshire 95 Argyll and Bute 55 Renfrewshire 310 West Dunbartonshire 90 Clackmannanshire 40 Highland 295 Western Isles 35 West Lothian 240 Shetland Islands 20 Perth and Kinross 215 Orkney Islands 20 Falkirk 215 Aberdeenshire 200 East Ayrshire 200 Stirling 195 In total, 9,845. A quarter of all graduate jobs for new FD graduates in Scotland last year were in Glasgow

Professional employment in key Scottish council regions
3210 graduate jobs last year

A regional approach

10 regions Plus Glasgow (2905) and Edinburgh (1885) 1030 2285 880 515
Aberdeen City and Shire Ayrshire and Clyde Valley Fife and the Lothian Forth Valley Highland and Islands South of Scotland Tayside Aberdeenshire East Ayrshire East Lothian Clackmannanshire Argyll and Bute Dumfries and Galloway Angus City of Aberdeen East Dunbartonshire Fife Falkirk Highland Scottish Borders City of Dundee East Renfrewshire Midlothian Stirling Moray Perth and Kinross Inverclyde West Lothian Orkney Islands North Ayrshire Shetland Islands North Lanarkshire Western Isles (Eilean Siar) Renfrewshire South Ayrshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire 1030 2285 880 515 600 270 960 Plus Glasgow (2905) and Edinburgh (1885)

10 regions Pros – provides a regional framework that maps to existing data Allows differentiation between experiences of different institutions in context Much more nuanced view of the Scottish labour market, particularly outside major cities Allows modelling of graduate flows Nearly all institutions can be represented Cons Cumbersome to analyse as does not map directly to existing structure One region (South) has little HE provision, is small, fits poorly with others One region (Ayrshire and Clyde Valley) has been created by merging two smaller regions to ensure UWS is properly examined Fife and Lothian has HE (St Andrews) but institution v atypical

What do graduates do regionally?

Loyals – domiciled and studied in same region and now work there as well. 27% of 2016/17 graduates in Scotland Stayers – moved to another region to study and stayed there to work. 24% of 2016/17 graduates Returners – moved to another region to study and then returned home to work. 28% of 2016/17 graduates Incomers – work in a region they were neither domiciled nor studied in. 22% of 2016/17 graduates 50% of all Incomers work in Glasgow or Edinburgh

Occupational shortages
Aberdeen City and Shire Ayrshire Forth Valley Managers and directors in retail and wholesale Housing officers Veterinarians Nurses Property, housing and estate managers Youth and community workers Medical practitioners Vocational and industrial trainers and instructors Business sales executives Marketing associate professionals

Highland and Islands SIP South of Scotland Tayside Fire service officers (watch manager and below) Mechanical engineers Civil engineers Pharmacists Graphic designers Photographers, audio-visual and broadcasting equipment operators Managers and proprietors in agriculture and horticulture Nurses Secondary education teaching professionals Engineering professionals n.e.c. Primary and nursery education teaching professionals Medical practitioners Design and development engineers Business sales executives Welfare and housing associate professionals n.e.c. Public services associate professionals Finance and investment analysts and advisers

Edinburgh, Fife and the Lothian Web design and development professionals Welfare and housing associate professionals n.e.c. Nurses Chartered surveyors Human resources and industrial relations officers Engineering professionals n.e.c. Programmers and software development professionals Electrical engineers Solicitors Finance and investment analysts and advisers Primary and nursery education teaching professionals Mechanical engineers Business sales executives Social services managers and directors Civil engineers Managers and directors in retail and wholesale Secondary education teaching professionals Graphic designers Electronics engineers Production managers and directors in manufacturing Marketing associate professionals Property, housing and estate managers

Glasgow and the Clyde Valley Welfare and housing associate professionals Nurses Graphic designers Production managers and directors in construction Engineering professionals n.e.c. Secondary education teaching professionals Quantity surveyors Natural and social science professionals n.e.c. Primary and nursery education teaching professionals Sales accounts and business development managers Human resources and industrial relations officers Finance and investment analysts and advisers Managers and directors in retail and wholesale Civil engineers Insurance underwriters Web design and development professionals Design and development engineers Youth and community workers Business sales executives Information technology and telecommunications professionals n.e.c. Marketing associate professionals IT user support technicians Financial and accounting technicians Higher education teaching professionals Electrical engineers Quality assurance technicians Purchasing managers and directors Legal associate professionals In particular, the most significant shortage occupations showed many more HTF vacancies than any other roles elsewhere in Scotland. Welfare and housing roles are amongst the hardest to fill at professional level in the UK and the level of HTF vacancies in housing in Glasgow vies with the South East of England (the whole region) for the most serious in the UK.

Summary Graduate labour market fundamentally sound, long-term trend for expansion Outcomes remain good, with low unemployment A lot of misunderstandings about the extent and nature of graduate employment Significant increase in graduates taking Masters on completing first degree Little evidence of significant negative Brexit effect on early graduate labour market at the moment Graduate mobility seems to be falling Skills shortages and recruitment difficulties significant and worsening Despite good labour market, graduate underutilisation remains a serious issue Not matching graduate supply and demand as a nation very effectively

Data comes from: UKCES (now Department for Education)
Centre for Cities HESA ONS British Chambers of Commerce Bank of England

Dr Charlie Ball Head of HE Intelligence Graduate Prospects @hecsu @lmicharlie highpeakdata.wordpress.com hecsu.blogspot.com

Occupational shortage data

Data comes from the Employer Skills Survey 2017, conducted by IFF, provided by the Department for Education and analysed by HECSU. Data collected from survey responses from over 87,000 employers, and it is conducted by IFF on behalf of the DfE ‘Employer’ is used here as a shorthand for ‘establishment’, the level at which employers were sampled. Professional level’ means occupations classed under Standard Occupation Classification (SOC) 2010 in major groups 1, 2 and 3 – managerial, professional and associate professional. For more detail, please see the Technical Report,

One in five UK employers (20%) had at least one vacancy at the time of ESS 2017 fieldwork (summer 2017) Just over one million vacancies were reported 9% increase on the number in 2015. Levels of recruitment activity have increased compared to 2015 in England, Scotland and, most notably, Northern Ireland. In Wales recruitment activity was broadly unchanged.

An employer reported a vacancy as ‘hard to fill’ if they found it difficult to fill for any reason. This is a subjective measure, and if a vacancy was considered ‘hard to fill’, it should not be assumed that it was not ultimately filled, or that it was not filled by someone considered suitably skilled and qualified for the position. Vacancies that employers find hard-to-fill due to applicants lacking relevant skills, qualifications or experience are termed ‘skill-shortage vacancies’. This is also a subjective measure. All SSVs are HTF, but not all HTF vacancies are SSVs.

Graduate jobs with highest numbers of reported vacancies
Nurses Human resources and industrial relations officers (covering recruitment consultants etc) Business sales executives Welfare and housing associate professionals IT user support technicians Marketing associate professionals Programmers and software development professionals Engineering professionals n.e.c (covering niche and specialist engineers) Sales accounts and business development managers Managers and directors in retail and wholesale Medical practitioners Solicitors Vocational and industrial trainers and instructors Primary and nursery education teaching professionals Business and related associate professionals n.e.c. (including people with generic jobs titles) Youth and community workers Chartered and certified accountants Just under 309,000 reported vacancies in 169 different professional occupations (4 digit SOC)

Graduate jobs with highest numbers of reported vacancies
This data does not examine how difficult these roles are to fill, it simply looks at how many vacancies ESS respondents reported in 2017 This list of vacancies is not dissimilar to the list of most common jobs for new graduates. The top 10 jobs for new graduates from 2016/17 were as follows: Nurses Marketing associate professionals Medical practitioners Primary and nursery teaching Business and related associate professionals n.e.c. (including people with generic jobs titles) Programmers and software developers Finance analysts and advisers Human resources, recruitment industrial relations officers Chartered and certified accountants Welfare and housing associate professionals

Hard to fill vacancies An employer reported a vacancy as ‘hard to fill’ if they found it difficult to fill for any reason 33% of vacancies were considered ‘hard to fill’, in line with previous years Over 106,000 reported HTF vacancies across 165 different professional occupations (4 digit SOC)

Graduate jobs with highest numbers of reported hard to fill vacancies
Nurses Programmers and software development professionals HR and recruitment Medical practitioners Welfare and housing associate professionals Business sales executives IT user support technicians Sales accounts and business development managers Marketing associate professionals Engineering professionals n.e.c. Managers and directors in retail and wholesale Design and development engineers Web design and development professionals Veterinarians Chartered and certified accountants Over 106,000 reported HTF vacancies across 165 different professional occupations (4 digit SOC)

Graduate jobs with highest numbers of reported hard to fill vacancies
similar to the list of vacancies overall (as expected); the top 5 professions on the list of hard to fill vacancies are all in the top 10 roles taken by new graduates (and marketing and accountancy roles are also on both lists) suggesting that even though thousands of graduates enter each of those jobs every year, employers nevertheless still find positions difficult to recruit and that supply and demand of graduates may not be as well matched as we would like. although the rhetoric about graduate shortage focuses on STEM (and not without reason), many of the roles employers find hard to fill, despite considerable numbers of new graduate entrants are in business services and welfare.

Hardest graduate jobs to fill
Highest proportion of HTFs Proportion of vacancies that are HTF Medical practitioners 93.0% Veterinarians 86.8% Draughtspersons 72.6% Nurses 72.1% Electronics engineers 63.3% Electrical engineers 58.8% Civil engineers 57.9% Quantity surveyors 56.6% Web design and development professionals 54.1% Design and development engineers 53.9% Environment professionals 52.6% Pharmacists 52.5% Estimators, valuers and assessors 52.2% Programmers and software development professionals 50.0%

Skills shortage vacancies
Vacancies that employers find hard-to-fill due to applicants lacking relevant skills, qualifications or experience are termed ‘skill-shortage vacancies’. (SSVs) Whilst the proportion of employers with skill-shortage vacancies was unchanged from 2015 at 6%, in volume terms the number of such vacancies has increased by 8%, from 209,000 to 226,000 (similar to the increase in overall vacancy numbers). Skill-shortage vacancies accounted for 22% of all vacancies in the UK (in line with the 23% density reported in 2015). There were just under 79,000 reported SSVs across 163 different professional occupations (4 digit SOC)

Graduate jobs with highest numbers of reported skills shortage vacancies
Nurses Programmers and software development professionals Human resources and industrial relations officers IT user support technicians Business sales executives Sales accounts and business development managers Engineering professionals n.e.c. Marketing associate professionals Design and development engineers Welfare and housing associate professionals Web design and development professionals Chartered and certified accountants Medical practitioners Teaching and other educational professionals n.e.c. Finance and investment analysts and advisers Secondary education teaching professionals Graphic designers

Graduate jobs with highest proportions of reported skills shortage vacancies
Highest proportion of SSVs Proportion of vacancies that are SSVs Electronics engineers 59.8% Civil engineers 55.4% Design and development engineers 49.7% Quantity surveyors 49.6% Veterinarians 49.0% Programmers and software development professionals 48.1% Environment professionals 47.9% Electrical engineers 47.2% Web design and development professionals 45.7% Photographers, audio-visual and broadcasting equipment operators 41.6%

Why are positions hard to fill?
Managers Too much competition from other employers 7.9% Not enough people interested in doing this type of job 16.5% Poor terms and conditions (e.g. pay) offered for post 12.4% Low number of applicants with the required skills 43.0% Low number of applicants with the required attitude, motivation or personality Low number of applicants generally 19.3% Lack of work experience the company demands 28.6% Lack of qualifications the company demands 12.6% Poor career progression / lack of prospects 3.3% Job entails shift work/unsociable hours 9.8% Remote location/poor public transport Low number of suitable applicants inc. Age of applicants 2.1% Lack of funding for the position 3.1%

Professionals Too much competition from other employers 12.7% Not enough people interested in doing this type of job 19.6% Poor terms and conditions (e.g. pay) offered for post 11.1% Low number of applicants with the required skills 46.0% Low number of applicants with the required attitude, motivation or personality 8.1% Low number of applicants generally 28.4% Lack of work experience the company demands 18.1% Lack of qualifications the company demands 17.3% Poor career progression / lack of prospects 3.0% Job entails shift work/unsociable hours 3.6% Seasonal work 0.6% Remote location/poor public transport 12.8%

Associate professionals Too much competition from other employers 9.1% Not enough people interested in doing this type of job 16.2% Poor terms and conditions (e.g. pay) offered for post 10.4% Low number of applicants with the required skills 46.5% Low number of applicants with the required attitude, motivation or personality 13.1% Low number of applicants generally 17.3% Lack of work experience the company demands 27.6% Lack of qualifications the company demands 16.0% Poor career progression / lack of prospects 1.5% Job entails shift work/unsociable hours 4.7% Seasonal work 0.9% Remote location/poor public transport 9.6%

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