1. Are you ready for recovery? Dr Charlie Ball Head of HE Intelligence Graduate Prospects

2. What is the current state of the graduate jobs market? -Recovering, slowly and patchily -Some sectors and regions recovering faster and more vigorously -Not, in general, back to where we were pre-recession

3. An improving economy - Employer hiring intentions From the Bank of England Agents’ Summary of Business Conditions January 2015

4. 324,015 first degrees were awarded to UK-domiciled graduates last academic year. Most graduates (73.6%) were working six months after leaving university – 188,590 graduates Unemployment was 7.3%, the lowest since the recession. 12.4% went into further study. Most subjects appear to be having a better time of it than last year. Subjects seeing particular improvement – architecture and building, creative arts, engineering What Do Graduates Do?

5. Uncertainty We have an ongoing economic recovery but there is still uncertainty Global uncertainty Global slowdown in crucial economies Sharp fall in basic commodity prices Uncertainty about national issues Uncertainty about shape of next Government – could be coalition or minority Uncertainty about crucial aspects of policy post-election

6. Skills shortages Increased demand for skills leads to shortage. Clear signs of skills shortages in professional occupations IT Engineering Financial services (particularly those with a little experience) More expected to emerge We’re looking at graduates skills shortages in conjunction with UKCES and are expecting to have something out by the end of the month

7. Changes in UK occupational structure 2007- 2013

8. Wages – changes to real weekly earnings since 2008 by earnings group Source – Institute of Fiscal Studies, “The IFS Green Budget 2015”

9. Wages Increased economic confidence boosts capacity to offer wage rises – but also expectation of rises. ONS data suggests wage pressure for many professional qualifications is increasing. 2015 graduating cohort is first to pay £27,000 for full three year degree. Winter 2011 AGR survey showed that employers believed graduates would have higher salary expectations as a result

10. Employee mobility and retention Increased employee confidence leads to them being more likely to consider moving jobs. Impact on employee retention. Increased rates of employee turnover being reported. Competition for talent likely to intensify.

11. The regions One of the effects of recession seems to be to have reduced the proportion of graduates staying on in the city they studied The graduate jobs market in some cities will continue to thrive Birmingham Manchester Leeds Edinburgh Glasgow Cardiff Belfast The commuter towns and regions of the east and south east Graduate Prospects is looking at regional graduate labour markets and will be publishing in the next couple of months.

12. The regions

13. In summary 2015 is likely to see a continuing recovery in the UK graduate jobs market. Some uncertainty, but much will be resolved in May Recovery brings obvious benefits, but also challenges - Skills shortage -Pressure on wages -Competition for talent The regional agenda continues to be important