1. Measuring change in the graduate labour market A presentation to the Graduate Labour Market Forum, 13 th March 2003, Westminster, London Peter Elias, Institute for Employment Research, University of Warwick and Kate Purcell, Employment Studies Research Unit, University of the West of England

2. Measuring change in the graduate labour market How has the labour market for highly qualified people changed over the past 25 years? Are graduates finding jobs consistent with their higher education? Is higher education worth the effort? How are women faring relative to men?

3. Perceptions of change in the labour market major increase in the supply of highly qualified labour and increasing diversity within this supply change in the skills required by employers –the impact of ICT –growth of ‘The Knowledge Economy’ –flatter organisations less security in employment relationships greater demands for flexibility Slide 2 Some commonly held views about the processes of change

4. Participation by young people in Higher Education, Age Participation Index (API) Great Britain

5. Graduate transitions: the last 20 years need to explore assimilation of graduates within labour market new typology of occupations – used to study occupational change and graduate career paths study three ‘cohorts’ of graduates -1979/80 grads (NCDS and 1980 Graduate Survey) -1992 grads (BCS) -1995 grads (‘Moving On - Cohort 1’) explore movement of these graduates into/between occupational groups as they move through the labour market Slide 5

6. Slide 6 A new typology of occupations Traditional graduate occupations Modern graduate occupations New graduate occupations Niche graduate occupations Non-graduate occupations

7. Slide 7 Traditional graduate occupations The established professions, for which, historically, the normal route has been via an undergraduate degree programme Solicitors Medical practitioners HE, FE and secondary education teachers Biological scientists/biochemists

8. Modern graduate occupations Slide 8 The newer professions, particularly in management, IT and creative vocational areas, which graduates have been entering increasingly since educational expansion in the 1960s Chartered and certified accountants Authors/writers/journalists Software engineers, computer programmers Primary school and nursery teachers

9. New graduate occupations Slide 9 Areas of employment to which graduates have increasingly been recruited in large numbers; mainly administrative, design, technical and ‘caring’ occupations Marketing & sales, advertising managers Physiotherapists, occupational hygienists Social workers, probation, welfare officers Laboratory technicians Architectural technicians Clothing designers

10. Niche graduate occupations Slide 10 Occupations where the majority of incumbents are not graduates, but within which there are stable or growing specialist niches which require higher education skills and knowledge Entertainment and sports managers Hotel, accommodation managers Buyers (non-retail) Medical, dental and other scientific technicians Nurses

11. Non-graduate occupations Slide 11 Graduates are also found in jobs which are likely to constitute under-utilisation of their higher education skills and knowledge Call centre operators Sales assistants Filing and record clerks Debt, rent and cash collectors Routine laboratory testers

16. The movement of graduates out of non- graduate jobs, males

17. What does this mean for today's graduates? Over the past 25 years, the number of jobs which can accommodate graduates has increased by 3 million Greatest increase is in the area of ‘New graduate’ occupations Trends in occupational structure suggest this will continue