1. Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
Ag Market Outlook
Feb. 15, 2018
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
90.6
88.0
94.0
90.2
91.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
171.0
168.4
174.6
176.6
173.5
Production
(mil. bu.)
14,216
13,602
15,148
14,604
14,520
Beg. Stocks
1,232
1,731
1,737
2,293
2,352
Imports 32 67 57 50
Total Supply
15,479
15,401
16,942
16,947
16,922
Feed & Residual
5,280
5,120
5,467
5,550
Ethanol
5,200
5,224
5,439
5,525
Food, Seed, & Other
1,401
1,422
1,450
1,470
1,475
Exports
1,867
1,898
2,050
1,900
Total Use
13,748
13,664
14,649
14,595
14,450
Ending Stocks
2,472
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
3.70
3.61
3.36
3.30
Source: USDA 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
83.3
82.7
83.4
90.1
91.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
47.5
48.0
52.0
49.1
48.4
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,927
3,926
4,296
4,392
4,360
Beg. Stocks 92
191
197
302
530
Imports 33 24 22 25
Total Supply
4,052
4,140
4,515
4,718
4,915
Crush
1,873
1,886
1,899
1,950
1,970
Seed & Residual
146
122
141
139
140
Exports
1,842
1,936
2,174
2,100
2,325
Total Use
3,862
3,944
4,213
4,188
4,435
Ending Stocks
480
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
10.10
8.95
9.47
9.30
9.40
Source: USDA 3 3

4. Projected Corn Yields Top: 2017 Yield Estimate
Bottom: Change from last year
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS 4 4

5. Projected Soybean Yields
Top: 2017 Yield Estimate
Bottom: Change from last year
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS 5 5

6. Drought Monitor
Source: National Drought Mitigation Center 6 6

7. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

8. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 8 8

9. South American Weather
Source: NOAA, Climate Prediction Center 9 9

11. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 11 11

12. Pork Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

13. Year-over-Year Prices: Lean Hogs

14. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension

15. Beef Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

16. Year-over-Year Prices: Live Cattle

17. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension

18. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

19. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

20. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

21. Soybean Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

22. Ethanol Production
Sources: EIA, my projection for 2017

23. Ethanol Exports
Source: EIA

24. Current Corn Futures
4.12
3.98
3.53
Source: CME Group, 2/15/2018

25. Current Soybean Futures
10.04
9.83
9.61
Source: CME Group, 2/15/2018

26. 2017/18 Crop Margins

27. 2018/19 Crop Margins

28. Iowa Corn Revenues vs. Costs

29. Iowa Soybean Revenues vs. Costs

30. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: