1. Pilot modelling of transport and deposition of black carbon: case of shipping in the Russian Arctic Irina Morozova Head of Department for modelling transboundary air pollution and accounting of national emissions, Dr. Vladimir Zubov Julia IgnatEva scientific researcher Scientific Research Institute for atmospheric air protection Saint Petersburg, Russia WORKSHOP: IMPROVING BLACK CARBON EMISSION ESTIMATES & ABATEMENT 13 th -14 th May 2015 sriatm@yandex.ru Milan 2015 2015Milan

2. Arctic shipping routes 2 I route – Murmansk-Dudinka-Murmansk; II route - Arkhangelsk-Dudinka-Arkhangelsk; III route - Arkhangelsk-Sabetta-Arkhangelsk; IV route – Transit routes along the NSR* (Murmansk-Providence). *- Northern Sea Route I route – Murmansk-Dudinka-Murmansk; II route - Arkhangelsk-Dudinka-Arkhangelsk; III route - Arkhangelsk-Sabetta-Arkhangelsk; IV route – Transit routes along the NSR* (Murmansk-Providence). *- Northern Sea Route Murmansk Arkhangelsk Dudinka Sabetta Providence WWF interactive map was used for linking shipping routes with the modelling grid

3. Estimating of BC emissions from shipping BC emissions from shipping were estimated following formula: Ei – BC emissions, t; FC – fuel burnt, t; EFi – emission factor J.J. Corbett* coefficient for BC emissions in the Arctic conditions – 0.35 kg of BC per 1 t of diesel burnt – was applied * - Corbett, J.J., et al., Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2010(10): p. 9689-9704 BC emissions from shipping were estimated following formula: Ei – BC emissions, t; FC – fuel burnt, t; EFi – emission factor J.J. Corbett* coefficient for BC emissions in the Arctic conditions – 0.35 kg of BC per 1 t of diesel burnt – was applied * - Corbett, J.J., et al., Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2010(10): p. 9689-9704 3 Shipping routesBC emissions, kg I Route7700 II Route1372 III Route6149 IV Route5880 21101 кг BC emissions as estimated 21101 kg Shares IV route 28% I route 36% II route 7% III route 29%

4. Open Unified EMEP Model Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - West (MSC-W) Open Unified EMEP Model Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - West (MSC-W) 4 BC transport and deposition modelling

5. 5 RED LINE – original EMEP grid boundary Extended EMEP grid The extended EMEP grid covers most of the Russian territory with an exception of the Far East Federal District and a part of the Siberian Federal District

6. Deposition of BC emitted from Russian ships in the Arctic 2013, mg/m 2 /year 6 Based on modelling results total deposition of BC emitted from Russian ships on snow/ice in the Arctic equals 18.8 t Based on modelling results total deposition of BC emitted from Russian ships on snow/ice in the Arctic equals 18.8 t

7. Mean annual concentrations of BC in the air emitted from Russian ships in the Arctic, μg/m 3 7 Maximum concentration of BC is formed in the air over the central part of Kara Sea – 0.00022 μg/m 3 Maximum concentration of BC is formed in the air over the central part of Kara Sea – 0.00022 μg/m 3

8. Shipping BC emissions impact assessment on climate change 8 Decrease of albedo and change of temperature in the Arctic region were used as indicators to model impact of BC emissions from Russian shipping Decrease of ice albedo as result of BC emissions from Russian ships, % Maximum decrease of ice albedo – 0.01% (Kara Sea area). Mean value of decrease of ice albedo – 0.001%. Additional warming in the Arctic Region caused by BC emissions from Russian ships could be around 0.0003  С. Maximum decrease of ice albedo – 0.01% (Kara Sea area). Mean value of decrease of ice albedo – 0.001%. Additional warming in the Arctic Region caused by BC emissions from Russian ships could be around 0.0003  С. 8

9. Conclusions 9 BC emissions from Russian shipping in ice conditions of the Arctic (270 days) - 21 t Conclusion 1. Modelling results suggest that BC emitted by Russian shipping mostly gets deposited on ice in the Russian Arctic, estimated quantity – 18.8 t, including 10 t (53%) that is deposited within 700-1000 km along the route. Conclusion 2. BC emissions from Russian shipping do not have any significant impact on albedo of ice in the Arctic region. Maximum decrease of ice albedo as a result of BC deposition equals 0.01%, mean value – 0.001%. Conclusion 3. Potential impact of BC emissions from Russian shipping on the change of temperature in the Arctic region is considered negligible – 0.0003 0 C.