1. Assalamualikum
Muhammad Zeeshan Aftab Alam
- B E Electrical (NEDUET), MBA (SZABIST)
– 16 Years in Power Generation
- Currently Deputy General Manager
Orient Energy Systems Pvt. Ltd.

2. SMALL SCALE GRID-TIED SOLAR SYSTEMS IN PAKISTAN
THEIR REQUIRMENT AND IMPACT ON THE ECONOMY
Presented at: IEEEP Karachi 34th Multi Topic Symposium, 2019.

3. INDEX Introduction (Energy Mix in Pakistan)
Potential of Solar Energy in Pakistan
Technical Details of Pakistan
Test case PV-Grid Hybrid System
Plant Design parameters
Financial Details
Conclusion

4. AVERAGE ENERGY GLIMPSE! PAKISTAN

5. ENERGY MIX

6. ENERGY SUPPLY

7. Energy Comparisons PER MW Different Energy Tentative Comparison
Serial No.
Type of Generation
Approx. Capital Cost (Depending on Scale)
Infrastructure
Tentative Energy Generation Per Year
Capacity Factor
Environment Protection
Fuel Cost / Hour
O&M Cost / Year for 8,760 Hours / Year
Budgetary Leveled Govt. Feed in Tariff
Pay Back Period w.r.t. PKR 15 / Unit
Useable Life of Plant on 24 x 7 Basis 1
Diesel Generating Set
USD 250,000/-
Normal
6,657,600
76%
Average
USD 250
USD 150,000
Can not be calculated as Wapda is cheaper than Diesel 5 2
Gas Generation
USD 320,000/-
8,560,000
98%
Good
USD 60
USD 200,000 9
1.2 Years 10 3
Heavy Furnace Oil
USD 650,000/-
Very High
8,060,000
92%
Bad
USD 150
USD 250,000
11.38
3 Years 20 4
Coal
USD 1,500,000/-
7,500,000
86%
Very Bad
USD 120
12.6
5 Years
Solar PV
USD 800,000/-
High
1,550,000
18%
Very Good
USD 13,000
7.7 25 6
Solar Thermal
USD 1,300,000/-
1,800,000
21%
USD 65,000 12 7
Wind
USD 1,100,000/-
3,300,000
38%
USD 30,000
6.72
4 Years 8
Hydel / Hydro electric
USD 2,100,000/-
4,700,000
54%
USD 45,000
6 Years
Bio Mass
7,300,000
63%
USD 40
USD 170,000
13.52
Bio Gas
USD 2,000,000/-
72%
USD 10
USD 175,000
6.5 11
Nuclear
USD 3,000,000/-
Very Very High
7,900,000
90% 14

8. MANAGING SUPPLY & DEMAND GAP
Pakistan needs electricity – quickly
Choices:
Diesel Power Plants - Expensive
Wind Power Plants – Required to be installed in specific area and infrastructure.
Coal and Hydro Power Plants are usually many times bigger but take a lot longer to setup
The Solution:
Setup and erect small renewable (Solar) energy power plants at number of locations to meet the current demand and reducing import bill

9. INTRODUCTION Sun is our most powerful source of free renewable energy.
Pakistan is blessed with a total estimated power potential of 1,200 GW.
But too often we don’t optimize its potential as it relates to our daily life and energy needs.
May be we could be smarter about designing and managing our system to harness this free source of energy.

10. Renewable energy country attractiveness index
USA
South Korea
Kenya
CHINA
Italy
Phillipines
INDIA
Denmark
Norway
GERMANY
Mexico
Romania
JAPAN
Sweden
Egypt
CANADA
Portugal
Saudia Arabia
FRANCE
Thailand
Finland
BRAZIL
Moroco
Indonesia
Chille
Taiwan
Russia
Nether lands
Spain
Greece UK
Poland
South Africa
Peru
Australia
Ireland
Belgium
Austria
Turkey
Israel

11. Solar Pricing Index

12. RENEWABLE POTENTIAL IN PAKISTAN
Solar Potential (MW) Infinity
Wind Potential 50,000

13. GRID-TIED SOLAR SYSTEM

14. BENEFITS: Zero Recurring Battery Cost Sell excess Energy to grid
Low maintenance
Negligible Wear and Tear
Zero use of Hydrocarbons

15. Mono Vs Poly Crystalline Vs Thin Film Panels
Factors
Mono crystalline
Polycrystalline
Thin Film
Approx. Price
55 Rs. / Watt (High)
45 Rs. / Watt (Low)
40 Rs. / Watt (Lowest)
Efficiency
Efficiency rate is 18-22%
Efficiency rate is 13-17%
Efficiency rate is 10-15%
Temp Coefficient
-0.35 to 0.37 % per degree cent.
-0.39 to 0.42 % per degree cent.
-0.25 to 0.29 % per degree cent.
Worldwide References
Medium
High
Comparatively low. Aesthetically looks good, performs better in low irradiance. These modules are better for IPPs or large solar farms were area is not a concern.
Degradation
With greater warranty, approx. 0.7% per year degradation. Same as Poly
With greater warranty, approx. 0.7% per year degradation. Same as Mono
Less Degradation 0.5% per year
Area required
Require less space, sqft / kW approx.
Require less space, sqft / kW approx.
Require a lot of space, sqft / kW approx.
Mounting structure
Standard mounting structure which is tried and tested.
Needs more mounting rails and takes longer to install; adding to the overall cost of the system
I-V Curve Fill Factor (Idealized PV cell is 100%)
73%-82%
60%-68%
Cumulative Generation in 25 Years
Highest (Depends on temp)

16. Fill Factor Consideration
The short-circuit current and the open-circuit voltage are the maximum current and voltage
respectively from a solar cell.
The "fill factor", more commonly known by its abbreviation "FF", is a parameter which, in
conjunction with Voc and Isc , determines the maximum power from a
Solar cell. The FF is defined as the ratio of the maximum power from the solar cell to the
product of Voc and Isc i.e. The higher the value the better it is, therefore the closer this value
is to unity; means there is very minimal internal resistance in the solar panel.
FILL FACTOR SAMPLE:
FF = x = or 74.47%
x 9.041

17. GRID-TIED SOLAR SYSTEM IN PAKISTAN
556.5MW 2018
956.8MW under Development

18. Standard Budgetary Calculations for On Grid Solar Power Initial cost of 100kWp = PKR 8MILLION Rs. 80/ Per Watt Area required for 100kwp = 1,500m2 = 16,145 ft2= 1,793 yard2 = 0.37 Acres Energy Generation for 100kWp = 150,000 kWhr / Year (Reduced by 0.7% per year) Warranty for PV Panels- 10 Years, Inverters – 5 Years Green / Clean Energy per Year: Kilograms of carbon dioxide equivalent ,001 Pounds of carbon dioxide equivalent ,260 Equivalent Passenger vehicles driven for year Equivalent Trees Seedling grown for 10 years ,637 Savings: Units Generated by Solar x Current Unit Rate = 150,000 x 15 = Rs 2.25M Savings / Year Payback: Total Investment / Savings = Rs. 8 M / 2.25M = 3.56 Years

20. CASE: TECHNO_COMMERCIAL FEASIBILITY OF 151
CASE: TECHNO_COMMERCIAL FEASIBILITY OF 151.2KWp GRID_TIED PHILLIP MORRIS PVT Ltd., SAHIWAL

21. PURPOSE: Evaluation to minimize the Energy Demand Gap of Energy
Reduction of Carbon Footprints from the Environment of Pakistan

22. STEP-1: SITE ASSESSMENT
Commercial
Tariff=21.5 PKR
Solar Insolation=6.52 KWH/m2/day
LV SUBSTATION
MIN LOAD=1100kWe
BACK Up DIESEL GENERATORS
WAPDA (PRIMARY SOURCE)

23. STEP-2: SIMULATION(Helioscope)
The meteorological data of the site has been obtained considering the latitude & longitude (coordinates)
Following parameters are used to analyze the site conditions:
Monthly Averaged Insolation Incident On A Horizontal Surface (kWh/m2/day)
Monthly Averaged Radiation Incident On An Equator-Pointed Tilted Surface (kWh/m2/day)
Monthly Averaged Air Temperature At 10 m Above The Surface Of The Earth (°C)

24. Monthly Averaged Insolation Incident On A Horizontal Surface (kWh/m2/day)

25. Monthly Averaged Radiation Incident On An Equator-Pointed Tilted Surface (kWh/m2/day)

26. Monthly Averaged Air Temperature At Altitude Above The Surface Of The Earth (°C)

27. Forecasted Energy Simulation
S. No
Months
Energy Generation 1
January
15671 kWh 2
February
19999 kWh 3
March
21887 kWh 4
April
25195 kWh 5
May
22749 kWh 6
June
21185 kWh 7
July
17578 kWh 8
August
16060 kWh 9
September
16407 kWh 10
October
20755 kWh 11
November
18327 kWh 12
December
17244 kWh

28. STEP-3: ACTUAL ENERGY SIMULATION
S. No
Months
Energy Generation 1
January
18,460 kWh 2
February
21,103 kWh 3
March
22,849 kWh 4
April
22,899 kWh 5
May
22,824 kWh 6
June
20,325 kWh 7
July
14,052 kWh 8
August
15,594 kWh 9
September
20,442 kWh 10
October
21,618 kWh 11
November
18,663 kWh 12
December
18,677 kWh

29. MATHEMATICAL EQUATIONS
Ap= n= 𝐺𝑚
Ap :Annual Production
GM: Month Wise Generation
SP=Ap / Tp
SP :Specific Yield
TP: Total PV Installed
RH=SP / 365
RH: Sun hours

30. PARAMETERS OF SIMULATED GENERATIONAP
MWH SP
KWH/KWP/Yr RH
4.22
Hrs./day

31. PARAMETERS OF ACTUAL GENERATIONAP
MWH SP
1541.8
KWH/KWP/Yr RH
4.30
Hrs./day

32. FORCAST VS ACTUAL AP SP
1541.3
1541.8 RH
4.22
4.30

33. PARAMETERS OF FEASIBILITY
S.no
Parameters
 Value 1
Energy generation for first year 
237,560kWh 2
Inflation Rate(only for 2nd year) 8% 3
Discount Rate (only for 2nd year)
9.6% 4
Unit Cost of WAPDA
21.5PKR 5
Solar Photovoltaic Annual Degradation
0.7%

34. Feasibility of 151.2 kWp Grid Tied Solar system
Years
Energy Generated
Yearly saving
O&M Cost
Net Cash flow
Cumulative Cash Flows
kWh / yr.
PKR / yr.
0 Yr.
20,550,000 PKR
-20,550,000 PKR
1 Yr.
237,506 kW h
4,697,859.5 PKR
252,000 PKR
4,949,860 PKR
-15,600,140 PKR
2 Yr.
235,843 kW h
4,664,974.5 PKR
272,160 PKR
4,937,134 PKR
-10,663,006 PKR
3 Yr.
234,180 kW h
4,632,089.5 PKR
4,904,249 PKR
-5,758,757 PKR
4 Yr.
232,518 kW h
4,599,204.5 PKR
4,871,364 PKR
-887,392 PKR
5 Yr.
230,855 kW h
4,566,319.4 PKR
4,838,479 PKR
3,951,087 PKR
6 Yr.
229,193 kW h
4,533,434 PKR
4,805,594 PKR
8,756,682 PKR
7 Yr.
227,530 kW h
4,500,549.4 PKR
4,772,709 PKR
13,529,391 PKR
8 Yr.
225,868 kW h
4,467,664.4 PKR
4,739,824 PKR
18,269,216 PKR
9 Yr.
224,205 kW h
4,434,779.4 PKR
4,706,939 PKR
22,976,155 PKR
10 Yr.
222,543 kW h
4,401,894.4 PKR
4,674,054 PKR
27,650,209 PKR

35. Key parameters of Feasibility
S.no
Feasibility Parameters
Readings 1
Return on Investment(ROI)
4.17 years 2
Net Present Value(NPV)
23,627,028 PKR 3
Internal Rate of return(IRR)
24 % 4
Reduce foot prints of Carbon dioxide
58.10 Tons per year

36. CONCLUSION Clean Energy Carbon Credits Easy Availability
Cost Effective
Operation And Maintenance
Fast Payback Of Initial Capital
25 Years Life
LCOE – Levelized Cost Of Energy
High IRR
Theft Risk of Fuel

37. Impact on Economy Reducing Fuel Import Bills Creating Jobs
Grid Cost Savings
Lower your electric bills
Net metering (Small Business)
Increase your home's resale value
Local Industry may be promoted

38. Acknowledgement
I would like to thank IEEEP Karachi for providing an opportunity to present my work in the 34th Symposium at Karachi.