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Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
Ag Market Outlook Mar. 8, 2018 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist 1 1
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U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Area Planted
(mil. acres) 90.6 88.0 94.0 90.2 90.0 Yield (bu./acre) 171.0 168.4 174.6 176.6 174.0 Production (mil. bu.) 14,216 13,602 15,148 14,604 14,390 Beg. Stocks 1,232 1,731 1,737 2,293 2,352 Imports 32 67 57 50 Total Supply 15,479 15,401 16,942 16,947 16,922 Feed & Residual 5,280 5,120 5,467 5,550 5,475 Ethanol 5,200 5,224 5,439 5,525 5,650 Food, Seed, & Other 1,401 1,422 1,450 1,470 1,495 Exports 1,867 1,898 2,050 1,900 Total Use 13,748 13,664 14,649 14,595 14,520 Ending Stocks 2,272 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 3.70 3.61 3.36 3.30 3.40 Source: USDA 2 2
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U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Area Planted (mil. acres) 83.3 82.7 83.4 90.1 90.0 Yield (bu./acre) 47.5 48.0 52.0 49.1 48.5 Production (mil. bu.) 3,927 3,926 4,296 4,392 4,320 Beg. Stocks 92 191 197 302 530 Imports 33 24 22 25 Total Supply 4,052 4,140 4,515 4,718 4,875 Crush 1,873 1,886 1,899 1,950 1,980 Seed & Residual 146 122 141 139 135 Exports 1,842 1,936 2,174 2,100 2,300 Total Use 3,862 3,944 4,213 4,188 4,415 Ending Stocks 460 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 10.10 8.95 9.47 9.30 9.25 Source: USDA 3 3
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World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 4 4
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World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 5 5
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South American Weather
Source: NOAA, Climate Prediction Center 6 6
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Drought Monitor Source: National Drought Mitigation Center 7 7
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Projected Corn Yields Top: 2017 Yield Estimate
Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS 8 8
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Projected Soybean Yields
Top: 2017 Yield Estimate Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS 9 9
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U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 12 12
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Pork Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
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Year-over-Year Prices: Lean Hogs
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Beef Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
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Year-over-Year Prices: Live Cattle
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Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS
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Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
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Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS
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Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
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Ethanol Production Sources: EIA, my projection for 2017
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Ethanol Exports Source: EIA
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Current Corn Futures 4.15 4.06 3.55 Source: CME Group, 3/7/2018
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Current Soybean Futures
10.25 9.92 9.63 Source: CME Group, 3/7/2018
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2017/18 Crop Margins
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2018/19 Crop Margins
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Iowa Corn Revenues vs. Costs
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Iowa Soybean Revenues vs. Costs
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Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker:
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