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Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist

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Presentation on theme: "Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist"— Presentation transcript:

1 Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
Ag Market Outlook Mar. 8, 2018 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist 1 1

2 U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Area Planted
(mil. acres) 90.6 88.0 94.0 90.2 90.0 Yield (bu./acre) 171.0 168.4 174.6 176.6 174.0 Production (mil. bu.) 14,216 13,602 15,148 14,604 14,390 Beg. Stocks 1,232 1,731 1,737 2,293 2,352 Imports 32 67 57 50 Total Supply 15,479 15,401 16,942 16,947 16,922 Feed & Residual 5,280 5,120 5,467 5,550 5,475 Ethanol 5,200 5,224 5,439 5,525 5,650 Food, Seed, & Other 1,401 1,422 1,450 1,470 1,495 Exports 1,867 1,898 2,050 1,900 Total Use 13,748 13,664 14,649 14,595 14,520 Ending Stocks 2,272 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 3.70 3.61 3.36 3.30 3.40 Source: USDA 2 2

3 U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Area Planted (mil. acres) 83.3 82.7 83.4 90.1 90.0 Yield (bu./acre) 47.5 48.0 52.0 49.1 48.5 Production (mil. bu.) 3,927 3,926 4,296 4,392 4,320 Beg. Stocks 92 191 197 302 530 Imports 33 24 22 25 Total Supply 4,052 4,140 4,515 4,718 4,875 Crush 1,873 1,886 1,899 1,950 1,980 Seed & Residual 146 122 141 139 135 Exports 1,842 1,936 2,174 2,100 2,300 Total Use 3,862 3,944 4,213 4,188 4,415 Ending Stocks 460 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 10.10 8.95 9.47 9.30 9.25 Source: USDA 3 3

4 World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 4 4

5 World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 5 5

6 South American Weather
Source: NOAA, Climate Prediction Center 6 6

7 Drought Monitor Source: National Drought Mitigation Center 7 7

8 Projected Corn Yields Top: 2017 Yield Estimate
Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS 8 8

9 Projected Soybean Yields
Top: 2017 Yield Estimate Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS 9 9

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12 U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 12 12

13 Pork Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

14 Year-over-Year Prices: Lean Hogs

15 Beef Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

16 Year-over-Year Prices: Live Cattle

17 Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

18 Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

19 Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

20 Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

21 Ethanol Production Sources: EIA, my projection for 2017

22 Ethanol Exports Source: EIA

23 Current Corn Futures 4.15 4.06 3.55 Source: CME Group, 3/7/2018

24 Current Soybean Futures
10.25 9.92 9.63 Source: CME Group, 3/7/2018

25 2017/18 Crop Margins

26 2018/19 Crop Margins

27 Iowa Corn Revenues vs. Costs

28 Iowa Soybean Revenues vs. Costs

29 Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker:


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