1. Dr. Eng. Sudarmanto Budi Nugroho
Translating Policy Research into Concrete Projects on Environmentally Sustainable Transport in Semarang City
Workshop “Pengembangan Transportasi Public Rendah Emisi Karbon di Kota Semarang” , 9 January 2019
Dr. Eng. Sudarmanto Budi Nugroho
Institute for Global Environmental Strategies-Japan

2. Outline IGES activities in Semarang City
Policy Research and Practical Actions on Sustainable Transport
Way Forward

3. Letter of Intent to Collaborate between IGES & Semarang City was signed on May 24th, 2016

4. Collaboration between IGES and Diponegoro University

5. IGES’s Activities in Semarang City Since 2016
Demand Side
Supply Side
IGES’s Activities in Semarang City Since 2016
Low Carbon City Scenario (AIM LCS Study)
Co-Benefit Study on Transport Sector : BRT
Macro/City Level
(Multi sectors)
Sectoral Level
1. Green Industry
2. Smart Building
3. Smart Device
4. Sustainable Transport
(a). Energy Efficient vehicle &
(b) Modal Shift
5. Green Energy
Deployment of renewable Energy
Implementation at Project Level
Development of Low Carbon Infrastructure Through JCM FS Study
Change the Behaviour
Infrastructure
Soft Measures
Conversion of CNG Bus
Mini Hydro
Solar PV
Awareness Raising to use BRT for Junior High School Students

6. Policy Research on Low Carbon City Scenarios (LCS):
Baseline Data in 2015:
Estimation of total CO2 emission: 5,282 ktCO2e or 3.3tCO2e/person
The industry sector is the largest emitter
Transport Sector is the second largest emitter.
Sector
Final Energy Consumption (ktoe)
Total CO2 Emission (ktCO2e)
Industry
731,6
2.524,5
Commercial
71,7
571,0
Residential
392,2
748,0
Passenger transport
457,7
1.350,7
Freight transport
29,6
87,3
Total
1.682,8
5.281,5
Source: AIM LCS Brochure

7. Future Energy Demand (ktoe)
Future Development of City (2030):
Population will increase 1.29 times & number of household increase 1.46 times
Macro Economic Situation will increase 6 times compare to 2015
Future GRDP will still be dominated by Secondary Sector.
Future Energy Demand (ktoe)
Sector
2015
2030BaU
2030CM
BaU/2015
CM/BaU
Industry
731,6
4.139,9
3.483,6
5,66
0,84
Commercial
71,7
507,6
442,5
7,08
0,87
Residential
392,2
615,8
605,1
1,57
0,98
Passenger transport
457,7
709,2
421,0
1,55
0,59
Freight transport
29,6
177,2
138,8
5,99
0,78
Total
1.682,8
6.149,6
5.091,0
3,65
0,83
Source: AIM LCS Brochure
In case of Business as Usual (BAU) total CO2 emission will increase more than 3 times in 2030

8. Low Carbon Society Scenario for Semarang City
To Reduce CO2 Emission, Semarang City needs Counter Measures (CM) scenarios
There are five LCS actions and projects could be Promoted by Semarang City which will reduce emission per capita from 10.9 tCO2e (BAU-2030) to 7.8 tCO2e (or around 28.44%)
The action on “Sustainable Transport” by promoting energy efficient vehicles and modal shift could reduce 950 ktCO2e
Industry
Commercial
Residential
Passenger Transport
Freight Transport
Total
Action 1: Green Industry - Promotion of energy efficient equipment & fuel shift
2.552
Action 2: Smart Building - Diffusion of low-energy building (Materials, fuel shift)
215 33
248
Action 3: Smart Device - Promotion of energy efficient device/appliance
357 77
434
Action 4: Sustainable Transport - Energy efficient vehicle and modal shift
837
113
950
Action 5: Green Energy - deployment of renewable electricity 26 10 36
598
120
4.220
Source: AIM LCS Brochure

9. Emission reduction (ktCO2e)
Low Carbon Society Scenario on Transport Sector
Promoting energy-efficient vehicles (car, motorbikes and trucks) give largest reduction due to intensive use of those modes.
Expansion of Frequencies and Routes of public transport (BRT) and development of public transport will also give substantial reduction of CO2 emission.
Eco Driving and Fuel Switch will also reduce emission, but only small reduction
No　
Project
Emission reduction (ktCO2e) 1
Promotion of eco-driving with digital tachographs
7.2 2
Wide-range traffic control
28.8 3
Expansion of frequencies and routes of bus and BRT
96.2 4
Development of public transportation like railway and MRT
98.6 5
Shift to CNG bus
6.1 6
Introduction of electric motorbikes
61.5 7
Promotion of energy-efficient vehicles (cars for passenger)
452.3 8
Promotion of energy-efficient vehicles (motorbikes)
86.7 9
Promotion of energy-efficient vehicles (trucks)
112.8
Total
950.1
Source: AIM LCS Brochure

10. Co-Benefit Study on Transport in Semarang City
2016
2017
Co-Benefit Study on Transport in Semarang City
Step 1: Emission Inventory
Tools: IVE
Collaborative partner:
Diponegoro University ;
Asian Institute of Technology
Step 2: Prioritizing Priority Actions
Tools: AHP
Diponegoro University & Local Experts (44 People)
Step 3: Quantifying impact of Priority Policies
Step 4: Consensus Building
Tools: Stakeholder Dialogue
Diponegoro University
Semarang
Improvement of BRT System
Awareness Campaign to Promote the modal shift from Motorcycle to BRT among High School Students
Semarang

11. 1. Identify Problem :
Barrier to Use Public Transport & Non-Motorize Transport (based on interview survey to 671 private vehicle users and 44 experts in 2016)

12. 1. Identify Problem : - Modal Shift to Private Vehicles
Based on Interview to 671 private vehicle users in 2016
About 37.4% of private vehicles users use public transport in the past
They started to shift to Private Vehicles (especially motorcycle) at years old  affordable to own motorcycle
Reason
Percentage (N=671)
Travel Time
24.9%
Flexibility
21.0%
Comfortable
14.5%
Cost
11.3%
Have access to private vehicles
16.1%
Traffic Safety
1.7%
Travel Security
0.2%
Others
10.3%
39% of Private Vehicle users had experiences to use Trans Semarang

13. Identify Problem :
Modal Shift of Public Transport in Semarang City
Based on Interview to 300 Angkot User and 300 user of Trans Semarang in 2017
Angkot MC
BRT
Bus
Walk 86 76 52 66 32 79 25 19
Pick-up/
Drop Off
Ojek 21 56 39 15 14
Cycling
Becak 72 30 13
Modal shift from previous modes to current modes
Alternative modes if current modes is not available

14. 2. Prioritizing Actions
a. Baseline Emission from Road Transport in (estimation by IVE Model)

15. 2. Prioritizing Actions
a. Prioritizing Actions to Improve BRT based on experts opinion

16. 3. Quantifying the Impacts
a. Modal Shifts (from Corridors 5,6,7,8)  emission reduction 3-14 %
b. Eco Driving of existing Trans Semarang  % of total emission from Bus
c. Low Emission buses for Trans Semarang  % of total emission from Bus

17. 4. Practical Actions : Change People Behaviour
Awareness Raising Campaign on Road Safety and promoting to use Trans Semarang for Junior High School students in SMP 1; SMP 7 and SMP 31 in 2017
a. Materials for Campaign
b. Onsite Program on Awareness Raising
c. Monitoring the impacts – Post Training Program
Modal Shift – Behaviour Intention
Knowledge about Trans Semarang

18. 4. Practical Actions : Introduction of Low Carbon Technology
Feasibility Study of CNG Bus for Trans Semarang under Joint Crediting Mechanism Program under the city to city cooperation between Toyama and Semarang
The government of Indonesian is actively promote the “oil-to-gas program” for public transport sector
There are several merits : cost efficiency and improvement of fuel efficiency of Engine and reduce emissions.
Diesel
CNG
CNG with JCM
Distance Year
Conversion cost

19. Conclusions
Transformative Process from policy oriented research activities to practical actions and project developments on Transport Sector brought multiple benefits to the City
The evidence based and science based policy process should be applied and it will be more feasible and possible by cooperation between city government and local organization, university/research Institutes and also international organizations.
The case on transport sector, especially in case of Trans Semarang, could be expanded to other issues on transport such as: promoting non-motorized transport (NMT) and other policies.
It also could be promoted to other sectors in order to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) target of Semarang city

20. Example reference to other cities (NMT)
Pedestrian Improvement Program and its impact on willingness to increase walking distance in Bandung City and Bogor City

21. Thank you for your attention