1. Factors that Increase Vulnerability Physical Rising temperatures, increasing evaporation, increase in precipitation received during extreme events, increase in length of dry spells Excess groundwater pumping during drought results in high energy use Social High rates of population growth, migration, and rapid urbanization Competition between urban and rural areas for water resources Legal Poor enforcement of water law (Mexico) Perverse incentives in water law: Use it or lose it (U.S.) Policy and Institutional NAFTA-catalyzed border industrial and population growth Leads to increased water demand Long-term planning hampered by: Short-term water management appointments Alternancia – new governments, new priorities Poor regulation of wastewater use in agriculture Economic Poverty and uneven access to resources Water is undervalued Commercial agriculture exports huge quantities of virtual water Institutions and Societal Impacts of Climate in the Arizona-Sonora Portion of the U.S.-Mexico Border Region Robert Varady 1, Gregg Garfin 1, Margaret Wilder 1, Christopher Scott 1, Anne Browning-Aiken 1, Barbara Morehouse 1, Nicolas Pineda 5, Ashley Coles 1, Jamie McEvoy 1, Kate Sammler 1, Andrea Ray 3, David Gochis 4, Tereza Cavazos 2, Luis Farfan 2, Rolando Diaz 1 1 University of Arizona, 2 Centro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada, 3 NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, 4 National Center for Atmospheric Research, 5 Colegio de Sonora Aims Assess climate-related vulnerabilities and impacts in the region Examine the nexus of climate, institutions, water policy, economic development, and land use practices Engage in climate knowledge exchange with stakeholders to: Evaluate the salience and usability of existing climate products Identify promising avenues for introducing climate science into policymaking and management decisions Formulate climate science research priorities and questions 1. Inefficient irrigation, high evaporative losses 5. Rapid expansion of coastal resorts and retirement communities 4. Rapid urban expansion, but inadequate water delivery, and limited water service (6-8 hr/day) 2. Rapid urban growth (above); into fire-prone and rural areas (left) 3. Leaky infrastructure and groundwater depletion to sustain export agriculture 6. Desalinating ocean water is seen as a desirable adaptation by many water managers 2 1 5 3 6 4 Factors Exacerbating Risk Arizona Sonora Physical Context Exposure to Climate Risk Semiarid climate Precipitation: 100-500 mm/yr 70% precipitation during summer High interannual precipitation variability El Niño-Southern Oscillation Extreme weather Summer thunderstorms Tropical cyclones Prone to drought e.g., 1950s, 1800s, 1750s, 1670s, 1560s Increasing temperatures Hydrology and Water Resources Scant surface water resources, but… Prone to flooding Bi-national streams and aquifers Agriculture uses 70-85% of regional groundwater Groundwater overdraft and salt-water intrusion Above: Areas of substantial groundwater depletion Weiss and Overpeck (2005) note increasing temperatures and a longer frost-free season in the region 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 AZ StateNogalesDouglas % of Population Living in Poverty Recent Funding Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research: Information Flows and Policy: Use of Climate Diagnostics and Cyclone Prediction for Adaptive Water-Resources Management Under Climatic Uncertainty in Western North America (http://udallcenter.arizona.edu/iai/index.php)http://udallcenter.arizona.edu/iai/index.php NOAA Sectoral Applications Research Program: Moving Forward: Adaptation and Resilience to Climate Change, Drought, and Water Demand in the Urbanizing Southwestern United States and Northern Mexico (http://udallcenter.arizona.edu/sarp/)http://udallcenter.arizona.edu/sarp/ Project Contacts: Robert Varady (rvarady@email.arizona.edu)rvarady@email.arizona.edu Margaret Wilder (mwilder@email.arizona.edu)mwilder@email.arizona.edu Chris Scott (cascott@email.arizona.edu)cascott@email.arizona.edu Gregg Garfin (gmgarfin@email.arizona.edu)gmgarfin@email.arizona.edu Institutional Issues Challenges Poor binational federal relations, resulting in suspicions of motives Limited use of science in planning and operations Bureaucratic inertia Poor information flows at the transboundary regional scale e.g., census, maps, economic and hydroclimatic data Inadequate funding for resource management (Mexico) Opportunities Increased local water governance through Mexican watershed councils (consejos de cuenca) Binational initiatives Transboundary Aquifer Assessment Program Border Governors Conference Water Committee New emphasis on climate change State Climate Action Plans (Mexico) Capacity building through collaborations: Scientists, NGOs, and stakeholders Border Climate Summary newsletter* Development of a culture of water conservation Drought planning * http://www.climas.arizona.edu/forecasts.html IARU Conference, March 2009