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State Climate Office Drought Update

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Presentation on theme: "State Climate Office Drought Update"— Presentation transcript:

1 State Climate Office Drought Update
Adnan Akyuz, Ph.D. NDSU, AES State Climatologist Updated 8/2/2018

2 Countywide Precipitation Anomalies and Rankings
June 2018 (34th Wettest) May-June 2018 (Near Normal) Blue/Brown colors indicate wetter/drier than long-term ( ) average.

3 Countywide Temperature Anomalies and Rankings
June 2018 (8th Warmest) May-June 2018 (3rd Warmest) Blue/Brown colors indicate wetter/drier than long-term ( ) average.

4 30-Day Precipitation Total Accumulation % of Normal (NDAWN Images)

5 Long Term Precipitation % of Normal
60 Days 90 Days (NDAWN Images)

6 (% Change from previous week)
Cumulative % area (% Change from previous week) None 19% (0%) D1 1.5% (+0.5%) DO 14% (-2%)

7 State Coverage and Intensity

8 Drought Change One-week Change 4-week Change

9 Drought Severity and Coverage Index (Statewide)
329 (Aug 8, 2006) 295 (Aug 8, 2017) 15 (-2) Drought Severity and Coverage Index = ADO + 2AD1 + 3AD2 + 4AD3 + 5AD4 (Akyüz, 2007) Where: A is a % of the state covered under the corresponding D-severity

10 Accumulated Drought Severity and Coverage Index (Statewide)
9889 (+17) 9,530 10,645 9663 19,319 2116 1714 *Numbers indicate the area under the DSCI Index Curve *Akyuz (2017)

11 Soil Moisture and Bare Soil Temperature
Soil Moisture Departure from Normal 5-week Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) (40mm = 1.6”)

12 Weekly Drought Impact Collection Based on the NDSU Weekly Survey of Extension Offices
Climate Division Drought Impact by counties 1: North-West Ward: Mildly Dry 2: North-Central McHenry: Mildly Dry Pierce: Moderately Dry. Corn and soybeans across the county are showing signs of drought stress (wilting and browning along field edges and hilltops is especially evident). Sloughs in pastures are receding and some that were wet at the beginning of the season are now dry. There is a body of water on the south side of HWY 2 by the old pleasant lake exit that is starting to show signs of algae blooms. Livestock producers have reported that hay in grassy meadows is about 50% of what it has been in a normal year. Livestock producers are also baling oats for hay. 3: North-East Cavalier: Near Normal Walsh: Mildly Dry 4: West Mercer: Near Normal. The middle of Mercer County has received less rainfall then other parts of the County. D1 drought conditions could be happening in this area if rainfall doesn't come in the next week or so. Dunn: (Conditions) Vary. East side of the county has gotten the most rain, the area north of Killdeer and Dunn Center is dry and has had numerous grass fires. The southwest west of Manning to the county line with billings and start is dry. Conditions are not as bad as last year but below normal. Storms have brought moisture but not enough to keep up with normal levels. 5: Central 6: East-Central 7: South-West Golden Valley: Moderately Dry. Hot, dry conditions in early July, have grass and field crops going backwards fast. Crops are showing considerable drought stress they did not show earlier in the year. 8: South-Central 9: South-East LaMoure: Moderately Wet

13 Corn GDD Accumulation Forecast*
Black Layer: Sep 1 *This graphic is created for Cass County based on: 88 day corn May 10 planting date Median first day of killing frost: Oct 8 *U2U Decision Support Tools:

14 Crassland Productivity Forecast (May-July)
*These three maps show the forecasted percent change in grassland production compared to a county’s 34-year average. USDA Northern Plains Climate Hub:

15 Impact Pictures A corn field harvested for hay in Pierce County (Yolanda Schmidt) Wilted soybean in Renville County (Yolanda Schmidt)

16 Forecast CPC 8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook (Aug 9-15)
WPC 7-day QPF (Aug 2-9) CPC 8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook (Aug 9-15)


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