1. ND Weekly Drought Update
Adnan Akyuz, Ph.D.
NDSU, AES
State Climatologist
Updated 5/3/2018

2. Divisional Precipitation Anomalies and Rankings
Winter : December-February
March 2018 1”
123th
0.66”
117th
0.12”
82nd
0.94”
122th
0.59”
111th
0.71”
111th
0.21”
89th
0.54”
108th
0.92”
112th
Negative numbers indicate drier than long-term ( ) average.
Lower rankings indicate historically drier conditions on record (124 years total).

3. Divisional Temperature Anomalies and Rankings
Winter : December-February
March 2018
-0.8F
56th
1.3F
75th
2.4F
85th
-0.4F
60th
0.6F
71st
0.5F
71st
-0.7F
53rd
0.2F
69th 0F
68th
Negative numbers indicate cooler than long-term ( ) average.
Lower rankings indicate historically cooler conditions on record (124 years total).

4. 30-Day Precipitation
Total Accumulation
% of Normal

5. Long Term Precipitation % of Normal
60 Days
90 Days

6. Weekly Drought Impact Collection Based on the NDSU Weekly Survey of Extension Offices
Climate Division
Drought Impact by counties
1: North-West
Divide County: Moderately Dry. Lack of forage for livestock.
Ward County: Moderately Dry. Soil is dry. The frost went out and the snow disappeared quickly. Plants have yet to green up.
2: North-Central
McHenry County: Moderately Dry. Dry condition coupled with excessive winds help to continue the dry conditions. The county is working to get pipelines in the ground for water sources as dugouts have become unreliable. All producers are looking at options for the coming year. Dry conditions are looking like they may persist, we need an adequate rain to get the frost out of the ground, so farmers can start planting and the pastures get a jumpstart. The snow events in early April missed our area entirely and that left us only with cold temperatures and wind. The burn ban for the county started today.
McHenry County: Moderately Dry. Soil is starting to blow already.
Bottineau County: is similar to what I have been reporting in McHenry county. It is dry in the southern region of that county.
Bottineau County: It is extremely dry on both the soil surface and in the subsoil. Our county has been placed on a burn ban until conditions become less of a threat for fire emergencies. Many of our farmers have not started planting due to lack of moisture in the soil profile and does not look favorable in the foreseeable future for moisture in our county. Residential lawns along with pastures have not shown much growth due to lack of moisture and are also not "greening" up either as expected for this time of year.
Benson County: Devils Lake region had a light rain, not amounting to much last night, growers are trying to conserve what little moisture the surface has, we have no subsoil moisture. I am concerned with moisture patterns missing us and going south. Rains will be critical this season. The only reason we had a crop last season was because we had a full profile.
3: North-East
Grand Forks County: Near Normal. Soil is sticky on the east side of the county. West side still has moisture in the soil, but has drained out nicely with the sandy soils.
Walsh County: Mildly Dry. Farmers are starting in the field and are eager to complete planting prior to significant rain. Need rain for significant green up.
Cavalier County: Mildly Dry
Towner County: Mildly Dry
4: West
Mercer County: Severely Dry. No moisture the last ten days. Only recharge was the about the eight inches of snow we received earlier in the month of April. Trying to feed in lots or calving pastures as long as possible. Fences are getting tested. Burn Ban went into effect across the Whole county
Dunn County: Near Normal
5: Central
Kidder County: Near Normal.
Foster County: Near Normal
6: East-Central
Steele County: Mildly Wet
7: South-West
Golden Valley County: Good top moisture due to recent snow and rain events, but drying out very fast as the wind blows.
Bowman County: Mildly Dry
Slope County: Mildly Dry
Billings/Stark Counties: Moderately Dry. This past week was the first week of any real growth. Not much has changed. Need another week to really get a good assessment. Producers are contemplating annual crops for roughages.
8: South-Central
Emmons County: We received .25 to .50 inches of rain throughout the county early last week and enough rain to make the ground wet last night. This rain was a huge blessing but we need more. The grass has greened up and the winter wheat/cereals are finally emerged and growing. We need a lot more moisture to say we are out of the drought. Farmers are in the field and starting to seed. Everything is extremely dry and people are worried about a drought again this year. Producers are starting to think about putting cattle out on pastures due to low feed amounts. As of now, there isn't enough grass to put cattle out on pastures yet - we need more rain to make the grass grow. Grass has greened up but hasn't really grown this spring. Pastures haven't recovered from last year yet. Producers are worried about running out of hay and not having any pasture to put cattle on. Lots of concerns about drought this year. Spirits are high because everyone is getting into the field and hoping but most people are not being optimistic. We are dry and I would say in D2. I think there is enough moisture to get the crops out of the ground and then the moisture is gone. We need more rain. We were short on moisture last year and now this year will be even worse if we do not replenish our water supplies. I talked to a few producers who said they have been in the fields and the ground is dry (4 inches down). The pastures have greened up but haven't really started growing yet. They are not ready to have cattle on them yet. Many producers are getting short on hay/feed and are needing to buy some. They are going to be short on forage for the 2018 winter if we do not get any rain this summer to be able to cut hay.
9: South-East
Logan County: Mildly Dry
Richland County: Mildly wet in much of the county SW part of the county is closer to normal.

7. (% Change from previous week)
Cumulative % area
(% Change from previous week)
None
24%
(-11%) D2 3%
(+3%) D1
39%
(+1%) DO
76%
(+11%)

8. State Coverage and Intensity

9. Drought Change
One-week Change
4-week Change

10. Drought Severity and Coverage Index (Statewide)
329
(Aug 8, 2006)
295
(Aug 8, 2017)
118
(+14)
Drought Severity and Coverage Index = ADO + 2AD1 + 3AD2 + 4AD3 + 5AD4 (Akyuz, 2007)
Where: A is a % of the state covered under the corresponding D-severity

11. Accumulated Drought Severity and Coverage Index (Statewide)
8795
(+118)
9,530
10,642
9653
19,319
2116
1714
*Numbers indicate the area under the DSCI Index Curve
*Akyuz (2017)

12. Soil Moisture and Bare Soil Temperature
Soil Moisture Departure from Normal
Bare Soil Temperature at 4” Depth
Daily Average (May 2, 2018)
(20mm = 0.8”)

13. 7-day GFS Forecast* Thu 1am, May 2 through Thu 1am, May 10
*College of DuPage
Next Generation Weather Lab (Displayed with permission)

14. 14-day GFS Forecast* Thu 1am, May 2 through Thu 1am, May 17
*College of DuPage
Next Generation Weather Lab (Displayed with permission)

15. Medium Range Forecast
Week 3-4 Precipitation
Week 3-4 Temperature

16. 3-Mounth Outlook: June-August
Precipitation
Temperature