1. Crop Market Outlook 2015 & 2016 Northwest Iowa Research Farm Field Day
Sutherland, Iowa
July 8, 2015
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
91.9
97.3
95.4
90.6
88.9
Yield
(bu./acre)
147.2
123.1
158.1
171.0
166.8
Production
(mil. bu.)
12,360
10,755
13,829
14,216
13,528
Beg. Stocks
1,128
989
821
1,232
1,876
Imports 29
160 36 25
Total Supply
13,517
11,904
14,686
15,472
15,429
Feed & Residual
4,557
4,315
5,034
5,250
5,300
Ethanol
5,000
4,641
5,134
5,175
5,200
Food, Seed, & Other
1,428
1,397
1,369
1,347
1,360
Exports
1,543
730
1,917
1,825
1,900
Total Use
12,528
11,083
13,454
13,597
13,760
Ending Stocks
1,669
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
6.22
6.89
4.46
3.65
3.50
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
75.0
77.2
76.8
83.7
85.1
Yield
(bu./acre)
41.9
40.0
44.0
47.8
46.0
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,094
3,042
3,358
3,969
3,885
Beg. Stocks
215
169
141 92
330
Imports 16 41 72 30
Total Supply
3,325
3,252
3,570
4,091
4,245
Crush
1,703
1,689
1,734
1,815
1,830
Seed & Residual 88
105 97
136
130
Exports
1,365
1,317
1,647
1,810
1,775
Total Use
3,155
3,111
3,478
3,761
3,735
Ending Stocks
510
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
12.50
14.40
13.00
10.05
9.00
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. Very Early Corn Yield Estimate

5. Very Early Soy Yield Estimate

6. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

7. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

8. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 8 8

9. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

10. Soybean Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

11. Corn Grind for Ethanol

12. Current Corn Futures
4.13
3.79
Source: CME Group, 7/7/2015

13. Current Soybean Futures
10.08
9.45
Source: CME Group, 7/7/2015

14. 2015/16 Crop Margins

15. Thoughts for 2015 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns
Quarterly stocks report showed strong demand
Resurvey of acreage for Kansas, Missouri, and Arkansas
Market is debating whether this year’s rain make grain
Projected negative margins for 2014 and 2015 crops
2014/15
USDA
2015/16
Futures
(7/7/15)
Corn
$3.65
$3.50
$3.79
$4.13
Soybeans
$10.05
$9.00
$10.08
$9.45

16. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: